The Rebel Stakes --Analysis and Picks

Oak Lawn Park, 1-1/16 miles, Grade II, $900,000, dirt--

50 Derby points

The Rebel has become one of the classier preps and certainly a big step toward the Arkansas Derby, which has become a very prominent affair in recent years. Three Derby winners have won The Rebel, including American Pharaoh and Smarty Jones.

This year’s field is one of the better ones I’ve ever seen with a plethora of top 3-year olds, trainers, and jocks.

Let’s start with the guy who has ruled in this race in recent years……Bob Baffert’s back in force, and it’s no wonder.

With a stellar record of 43-21-7-5 (48.8%) in stakes races at Oaklawn Park, Baffert, in eight Rebels, has won six times in the past seven races with a third place finish. This includes winning with these monsters:

Lookin At Lucky (2010), The Factor (2011), Secret Circle (2012), Hoppertunity (2014), American Pharoah (2015) and Cupid (2016).

Note: Seven of the last nine winners of The Rebel have shipped in with five travelling for this one, including American Anthem, Malagacy, Royal Mo, Sonneteer, and Untrapped.

#1 Silver Bullion…..A decent colt, and one that is improving, doesn’t rate with these. However, his work has been good and, if SB has a chance, it’s on the front end with the hope of getting the rest of the field to take a snooze. Trainer Lukas won in 2013 with Will Take Charge and in 1989.

#2 Uncontested…..After his 5-1/2L win in The Smarty Jones, I thought we might have something here. However, his performance in the Southwest was marred by the fact that he just couldn’t keep up with the speed fading back to lose by about 13 lengths. He will try to go early again with 2 or 3 others keeping company. Good connections in Catalano and son-in-law Channing Hill with 10-1 on the ML. An Uncontested win means that he would be the Southwest’s first beaten-favorite to win this race since since Dalhart in 1993. A could-be, if the right buttons are pushed, but a wall of horses breathing down his neck in the stretch might prevent it from happening. Factoid…in the past 3 years, Wayne is 8 for 17 (47%) in dirt routes off 3^rd layoff.

#3 Sonneteer….An interesting colt from Keith Desormeux shipping in from Cali, but 0 for 8 lifetime, he’s more in the mold of Silver Bullion than Royal Mo or American Anthem. Some talent for the Midnight Lute boy, he’s race three times already this year. Not saying he’ll be in the fray, but, like some Californians that often improve when travelling east to Arkansas, he could get lucky enough for a top 5 finish. Note: He finished second to Royal Mo last November at Del Mar.

#4 Petrov…..I am a tad puzzled by him, not because he hasn’t raced well. Lifetime 4/1-3-0, I just don’t see this guy being more than a mile or less runner. Not that he won’t keep up with the front runners hanging just behind, if he is going to win today, needs a better set up and needs to finish strong. Not impossible, at 9/2 on the ML, he has the right jock in J.L. Ortiz for Ron Moquett. A contender, but a handicapping challenge with this field; if you pick him to win, you’ll get an extra gold star for your handicapping prowess.

#5 Untrapped…..Trainer Asmussen has won this race three times, but not since 2007 with Curlin. While Untrapped is no Curlin, he is a definite candidate for upset here at 8-1 on the morning line. Switch to Irad Ortiz over Ricky Santana looks like trainer’s choice as the jock and the conditioner are 21% wins together. So what we have is the son of Trappe Shot coming off his career Beyer (91) with a decent post at decent odds. A must consider for a slice…and maybe a big slice.

#6 Malagacy….Big hopeful for Todd Pletcher, and rightfully so. Two for two in wins (both at Gulfstream against lesser), hitting a 95 Beyer last out, Malagacy is the son of the great Shackelford and a $190,000 yearling price tag. While he looks to be more of a sprinter, if he fails badly today, it might be due to the sharp company, the stretch to 1-1/16 and the limited racing experience. Smart move by Pletch to continue to ride JJ Castellano, Melagacy’s lone pilot, rather than putting his A-guy, Johnny V aboard. Note that Todd is 0 for 4 in The Rebel, so use that factoid as you wish. At 4-1 ML, is he risk or reward?

#7 American Anthem….Before I am accused of, once again, picking chalk--full disclosure---American Anthem (2-1 ML) was my very early Derby lean. Sure, he’s raced just twice, fighting on gamely in the slop to lose by a head to Gormely (who lost to Mastery last out in the San Felipe) in the Sham in what ended up to be a match race. I look for the Bodemeister colt to improve some today coming off outstanding work and freshening for this. Jockey Mike Smith won The Rebel on Hoppertunity in 2014 and Baffert’s record at Hot Springs speaks for itself. Can he handle the shipping and track change?

#8 Silver Dust….There is a good amount of talent in this guy. A $510,000 Ocala seller out of prolific Tapit, a jock (Lanerie) who won the SW on One Liner, and a solid conditioner in Randy Morse (14% wins; 22% with Lanerie). At 15-1. If he doesn’t’ improve today, might be branded with Classic Underachiever status. That said, he was coming off a three month layoff into the SW (4^th place finish) and was pulled up a bit after passing dead ones making his nearly 13L loss look even worse. Track notes say he should benefit by the pace, so let’s see.

#9 Appalachian Gem….Coming off a nice maiden win here last out, the son of Gemologist looks to better for Hall of Famer Jack Van Berg. Big news is that 54-year old Gary Stevens comes in to ride off a recent hip replacement.  I have to think that Stevens is the first jock to ride in a Derby prep race with the embedded aluminum! (I wonder if the colt gets a weight allowance?). MeThinks not much hope for the youngster. Van Berg last won this when Jimmy Carter was President, in 1982.

#10 Royal Mo….Well, this son of Uncle Mo should be an interesting runner today after wiring the Bob Lewis six weeks ago. The guy is all speed and he’ll need it today to get out of the tough post, then pushing towards the 3 or 4 who will be in front. Victor Espinosa, who won this with American Pharaoh, grabs the strap for the great John Shirreffs. The trainer, at Oak Lawn, has won the Apple Blossom Handicap (GI) twice with Zenyatta in 2008 and 2010, and won the Oaklawn Handicap (GII) in 2008 with Tiago. Mo is 9-2 ML and, assuming he gets out, has a decent shot at the circle. In tough, all things considered, but doable.

My Picks:

Ohhhhhhh, the horror!

As much as I like American Anthem’s chances today, this race, with all the ups and downs of the contestants, is begging for a bomber. I think the stretch rules in this one, so I will go with the one I think is the best closer, and at solid odds…..

…..#11 Lookin At Lee to win and place.

Last two races…”Bobbled start. Swung 4 wide,” and still rallied for third. Two back, “Angled out. Belated,” rallied for fourth. I like the Asmussen’s call for Santana to ride as the combo knows every inch of this track. No roll of the dice because I think the talent—up against this field…is there. Can Steve knock Bob off his perch?

$12 exacta: 11/4, 5, 7

$6 exacta: 11/6, 10

$4 tri: 11/4,5,6,7,10/2,4,5,6,7,8,10

GL TO ALL!

Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Ahhhhhhhh............Same Here  

11 atb

11,7,10,4

gl Mike

Oyyoyoyoyoy! Will the starts align?

GL VET...wish we'd get some spring here. Last week, I was in Vegas for business, then on to see the Cubs in Arizona last weekend. I got spoiled by the 90 degree weather.

#6 MELAGACY...ALL THE BEST TODAY.

finishes

6-3-5-4

Hugeeeee exacta and tri

Tip O' the hat to the Cap'n for his Melagacy pick!

"So many of these betting decisions are right in front of us & sometimes common sense should be the choice. I been talking about Castellano for years & how he wins the last race on a card. And I didn't make that double bet even though I liked him on Malagacy"

Yep.....as we all know, it's a game of woulda, shoulda, coulda.....