Who I will not bet in the Derby ! Post your throwouts thoughts !

Less than a month to go and we still don't know the exact 20 that will be in the starting gate. I thought I would start the discussion on horse that you won't bet on because of the odds expected and or you think the horse is just overrated, can't get the distance or the pace scenario will be an issue.

California Chrome has been impressive, but lets be honest. He was the lone speed and had thing his own way in the last two races. The Derby will be loaded with speed and I think the favorite is vulnerable.

He was not lone speed in either, and as a matter of fact didn't even get the lead until the middle of the far turn yesterday.

Just sayin'

HB

Chrome is a freak horse just like Big Brown. But in the Derby I can see him win or run dead last. Post draw is huge. 

I agree Kursh.  I think the further outside he draws the better his chances are.  The closer to the inside the more his chances are compromised.

HB

CC does not need the lead to win and he's already shown that. He's clearly the best 3 year old right now and his win in the Santa Anita derby was the most impressive prep race since Bodemeister won the Arkansas Derby!

We Miss Artie is an easy toss, slow turf/synthetics horse that has no business in the derby. But his owners don't care they just wanna see their silks in the gate

just post your "throw out horses" don't debate who you like. Thanks.

Big Brown was undefeated. Chrome's total work, not as impressive.

California Chromes 3 year old body of work is more impressive then Big Browns 3yr old body of work heading into the derby. Just look at the PP's

4-4 and higher Beyers......

I will give you 5-1, right now.

Ok, when i win i guess ill just get in line behind Gamehunter??

Nope, We will settle before 8pm on Derby Day. If he doesn't run, no action. Deal ?

Holy Bull was right btw. CC, whether you like him or not (and IMO, the reason not to like is simply based on value, not anything with the horse), has shown he can certainly stalk.

When one looks at the last 10 derbys, stalkers to mid-stalkers are the most likely derby winning style.

Hahaha yes of course. The check is in the mail

https://www.drf.com/news/brad-frees-santa-anita-handicapping-notebook-april-6

Brad Free fails to state that Candy Boy and Hoppertunity where both within a length or 2 of CC turning for home and he ran away from both of them in hand!

Andy Beyer's Derby pick is always a good throwout.  

Im not so sure this speed scenario plays out in the Derby either, just my opinion. 

Beyer speed figures have always worked for me 

Pretty much agreed.

The funny thing is when the article states that the Derby will be unlike anything that CC has seen.

Really? You mean because any of the preps are somewhat equated to the talent in the Derby? You mean because all of those great closers have been in races where they had to close along with 15 other horses?

We may learn something this weekend. Two years ago, the Derby favorite was pretty much under the radar until the Arkansas Derby.

But to deny that CC has legitimately staked his claim as the Derby fav is laughable.

Keep betting turf horses in classic dirt races,