could you break your bags down by %? I’ve been trying to mirror your holdings. I should be somewhat close. 
ATOM 33%
BTC 32%
CRU 15%
SUSHI 10%
INJ 10%
The imf federal reserve and Chinese banking system sporting the new world reserve currency the gold backed than all declared war on crypto currency.
Grabbing some popcorn and hope you all fight the good fight... looking forward to this as a mass of indegients low life's and uneducated rubes taking on the Empire in any star wars flick allegorically....
May the force of electrons be with you in mining this contraband.
Tweet thread:
0/ Druckenmiller has now had a similar interviews for CNBC, USC, & The Hustle w/ their own twist.
Tech Bubble vs. Today- "Today, you have something similar & something different. Monetary policy is absolutely insane. We had no QE back then. And our rates weren’t 0%. They were
1/ 4% or 5% when they probably should have been 6% or 7%. No comparison.
So we have an asset bubble. Now that’s not just in tech stocks, it’s in everything. I know some of the backers of $DOGE might disagree. If you’re an asset, you’ve been moving. From '95 to '00, you had an
2/ incredible wave while the internet was being built. What you have now is this incredible wave of digital transformation, particularly moving onto the cloud. I used to say 2-3 years ago in some interviews that we’re in the bottom of the 1st or 2nd inning in terms of digital
3/ transformation. And this is a 10-year runway. COVID jumped you from the bottom half of the 1st inning to the 6th inning. I think $SHOP CEO @tobi said we went from '19 to '30 in terms of e commerce sales in 1 year.
The biggest problem you have now is asset prices
4/ So if the problem is price: a lot of that has been wrung out. If you hold these names for 3-4 years, they could easily grow into their valuations.
If you held the names in '00, a lot of these companies you still would have lost 90% of your value.
5/ On FAAMG- " $AMZN at $3200 is not a bubble stock. Not whatsoever. It’s basically decent value. I don’t just mean AMZN, but a lot of the big FAAMG names."
What could hit $5T first? #1 AMZN #2 $MSFT
$GOOGL could have a big pop, ironically, if the gov't breaks them up because
6/ their core search business is literally the best business I’ve ever seen"
Biggest risk to the equity market? "Without a doubt: inflation strong enough that the Fed responds to it. This bubble has gone long enough & it’s extended enough that the minute they start tightening,
7/ the equity market should go down a lot. And our central case is that inflation occurs, but we’re open-minded to something like ‘07-’08 when you never really got to the inflation because the bubble popped. So, inflation never got to the manifestation stage."
#2 is geopolitics
8/ "I’m worried about Taiwan. I think it’s probably not a worry until after the Beijing Winter Olympics in '22. I don’t think Xi Jinping wants to deal w/ sanctions & boycotts. This is not some little thing where Yemen is fighting Saudi Arabia.
9/ If you were to get worried about the US & China, that could be an exogenous event that could get nasty. That’s our central case."
On TA- "When it comes to investing, I like a multi-disciplinary approach. My 1st boss taught me technical analysis. So, I use fundamental
10/ analysis & technical analysis. If there are 1000s of securities out there & my portfolio is only going to have 15-20, I’m never going to buy something that doesn’t have a great chart and fundamentals."
11+12 use graphics to talk about how big/good investors (Buffet, Icahn, Soros) concentrate their holdings and aren’t very diversified at times
13/ On $BTC & how he changes his mind:
#1 CARES Act- When we did the CARES act & Powell started crossing all sorts of red lines in terms of what the Fed would do and wouldn’t do. The problem was Jay Powell & the world’s CB's going nuts & making fiat money even more questionable
14/ #2- Paul Tudor Jones called & he said, "Do you know that when Bitcoin went from $17,000 to $3000 that 86% of the people that owned it at $17,000, never sold it?” Well, this was huge in my mind. So here’s something w/ a finite supply & 86% of the owners are religious zealots.
15/ I mean, who the hell holds something through $17,000 to $3000? And it turns out none of them — the 86% — sold it. Add that to this new Central Bank craziness phenomenon.
It goes up to $6,000 in the middle of the last spring. I got to buying some just because these kids on
16/ the West Coast are already worth more than I am, & they’re going to be making a lot more money than me in the future. For some reason, they’re looking at this thing the way I’ve always looked at gold, which is a store of value if I don’t trust fiat currencies. Then the thing
17/ that Paul told me. Then, the fact that it’s been around 13 years. It has become a brand, right? So it’s funny. I tried to buy $100M of $BTC at $6,200. It took me 2 weeks to buy $20M. I bought it all around $6,500, I think. So like an idiot, I stopped buying it."
18/ On $ETH vs. $BTC- "I think $BTC has won the store of value game because it is: 1) a brand 2) it’s been around for 13-14 years & 3) It has a finite supply
Is it going to be gold? I don’t know. It’s sure as hell doing a good imitation of it the last year or two.
19/ On $ETH- "I’m a little more skeptical of whether it can hold its position. It reminds me a little of MySpace before $FB. Or maybe a better analogy is Yahoo before Google came along. Google wasn’t that much faster than Yahoo, but it didn’t need to be. All it needed to be was
20/ a little bit faster and the rest is history. One of the ways we’ve always invested in the private sector is to try and figure out where the engineering kids from Stanford, Brown and MIT are going. So many of them are in love with crypto and that’s where they’re going.
21/ I’m worried about the talent. That’s like 23-28 years old. Somebody — we don’t even know who they are yet — might come up with a smart contract platform that hasn’t even been invented yet.
As long as Jay Powell keeps acting like he’s been acting, I think gold & $BTC- &
22/ $BTC seems to be high-beta gold — are going to have the wind behind them."
https://twitter.com/johnstcapital/status/1399012533701386241?s=21
If the fed doesn’t raise rates, assets will continue to boom, and possibly reach levels of hyperinflation
If the fed raises rates, inflation will slow down to a manageable speed, but the markets will crash
Let’s look at the housing market. Rates are currently around 3.25%. Nearly 100% of homeowners have equity (a lot) in their homes. If you can no longer afford your house, the worst case scenario is to sell your house and cash out for profit.
Let’s take a look at what 3.25% vs 5.5% does to a $500k mortgage in my area.
Sale price $599,000
$100k down
3.25% = $3,283 mortgage payment (30 years)
5.5% = $3,950 mortgage payment (30 years)
If the rate is 3.25% you can borrow $500k and have a mortgage of $3283
If the rate is 5.5% you can borrow $410k and have a mortgage of $3280
So housing prices dump. Now if you can’t afford your house you can’t just sell for a profit because you’re underwater. You have to foreclose. This creates a domino effect and dump the market even further.
I don’t see how this doesn’t happen. The only question is how long will the market go up before this happens? Months? Years?
I think the commercial real estate will suffer the most, with pandemic more people worked from home and businesses will adapt to new concept of people working from home even after pandemic and no longer need to own a building for employees office space. Housing market will most likely crash if the feds raise interest rates but I think overall it’s doing ok now. If you think the stock market will crash eventually then for sure crypto won’t do well either. As of ETH vs BTC, when the EIP 1559 comes out in July for ETH, the fees will be reduced and ETH tokens burned in the process which should reduce supply over time, basically anything u could do on BTC you’ll be able to do with ETH and with more projects being built on ETH than any other platform, I can’t see how this yahoo vs google analogy is used, unless BTC is consider to be yahoo and ETH will be the google in the future. If I’m given just 2 choices between BTC and ETH, it’s a no brainer ETH will outperform for yrs to come, institutions are starting to realize things like DeFi is a BIG BIG thing. I just see over time ETH will flip BTC in market cap but it might take many yrs before this will happen but it will happen
“This is important. And Panama cannot be left behind. If we want to be a true technology and entrepreneurship hub, we have to support cryptocurrencies
We will be preparing a proposal to present at the Assembly. If you are interested in building it, you can contact me”
https://twitter.com/gabrielsilva8_7/status/1401965129051389958?s=21
I always wondered why foreign countries allow international trade to be settled in USD. Bitcoin provides a fair alternative.
The US probably won’t like ‘fair’ very much.
Talks of Russia buying this dip to stabilize against US sanctions.
South America seems to be heading towards buying.
The US has 2 options.
1. Raise rates and crash the economy
2. Let inflation run
The US is forced to choose option #2 because the debt is so high. Raise rates and crash the economy and they’ll default on their debts. Wont happen.
There are currently $45 trillion in bonds. When inflation runs, assets are/will pump, bonds start to see negative real rates, people are holding a ton of cash and flee bonds and cash for inflation hedges.
This is my bet and I’m sticking to it.
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