So what is the value of MSTR given they are underwater on their BTC holdings, might get a margin call and have billions in debt that needs to be serviced? Brutal week for the stock down over 50% and almost 90% from the all time high.
Their first margin call would come at $21,000
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Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
So what is the value of MSTR given they are underwater on their BTC holdings, might get a margin call and have billions in debt that needs to be serviced? Brutal week for the stock down over 50% and almost 90% from the all time high.
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers: So what is the value of MSTR given they are underwater on their BTC holdings, might get a margin call and have billions in debt that needs to be serviced? Brutal week for the stock down over 50% and almost 90% from the all time high. Their first margin call would come at $21,000
Yup and he is underwater on the position using leverage and he also pledged some BTC to get more leverage. Looks like higher rates are coming home to roost, but lets see how far they let it go before a reversal.
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Quote Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers: So what is the value of MSTR given they are underwater on their BTC holdings, might get a margin call and have billions in debt that needs to be serviced? Brutal week for the stock down over 50% and almost 90% from the all time high. Their first margin call would come at $21,000
Yup and he is underwater on the position using leverage and he also pledged some BTC to get more leverage. Looks like higher rates are coming home to roost, but lets see how far they let it go before a reversal.
He wasn’t margin called at $21,000. He still sounds pretty confident. If he can survive the bear market without getting liquidated from any positions he’ll be handsomely rewarded during the next bull run.
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He wasn’t margin called at $21,000. He still sounds pretty confident. If he can survive the bear market without getting liquidated from any positions he’ll be handsomely rewarded during the next bull run.
He wasn’t margin called at $21,000. He still sounds pretty confident. If he can survive the bear market without getting liquidated from any positions he’ll be handsomely rewarded during the next bull run.
Nobody in the public knows what he is doing, but I can surmise that he has financially messed around as much as he could meaning I would not be shocked if he pledged his BTC to a yield scenario or sold options against his position, I have to think he has manipulated this so much that he has no choices except to bring more debt to the position. He has zero free cash to shore up leverage, he has over 500M in negative equity and since his loans are interest only he is not paying off any principal.
The fact that he made the absurd comment about being ok down to what 5k on BTC shows he is disconnected from reality. If BTC even moves to 10k I think it will throw MSTR into bankruptcy.
This is the exact scenario we discussed long ago and you were pretty rude about, that since he used leverage and only debt it had the potential of destroying his company and the core business.
I am actually shocked the stock is up here, with more negative equity on this position than the value of the underlying company, I would say with BTC at 20k the true value of MSTR is like 20 bucks. If you look at their balance sheet and dissect "intangibles" in their assets they are have no other intrinsic value because of all the debt he took on. Even with whatever intangibles are the only real asset the company has is common stock which they could sell to raise cash.
If Mike ever does start to liquidate, and the market will know if that is happening, I will buy BTC again but until then I will stick with my other holdings and not own the actual BTC.
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Quote Originally Posted by I_Need_A_Detox:
He wasn’t margin called at $21,000. He still sounds pretty confident. If he can survive the bear market without getting liquidated from any positions he’ll be handsomely rewarded during the next bull run.
Nobody in the public knows what he is doing, but I can surmise that he has financially messed around as much as he could meaning I would not be shocked if he pledged his BTC to a yield scenario or sold options against his position, I have to think he has manipulated this so much that he has no choices except to bring more debt to the position. He has zero free cash to shore up leverage, he has over 500M in negative equity and since his loans are interest only he is not paying off any principal.
The fact that he made the absurd comment about being ok down to what 5k on BTC shows he is disconnected from reality. If BTC even moves to 10k I think it will throw MSTR into bankruptcy.
This is the exact scenario we discussed long ago and you were pretty rude about, that since he used leverage and only debt it had the potential of destroying his company and the core business.
I am actually shocked the stock is up here, with more negative equity on this position than the value of the underlying company, I would say with BTC at 20k the true value of MSTR is like 20 bucks. If you look at their balance sheet and dissect "intangibles" in their assets they are have no other intrinsic value because of all the debt he took on. Even with whatever intangibles are the only real asset the company has is common stock which they could sell to raise cash.
If Mike ever does start to liquidate, and the market will know if that is happening, I will buy BTC again but until then I will stick with my other holdings and not own the actual BTC.
That isnt the point at all, the point which Ive made repeatedly and you have been a total jerk about repeatedly is the guy is using debt and leverage and that is reckless and it could EASILY destroy the underlying business.
He is over 500M in the red all using debt, the market cap of MSTR should be the core business plus or minus the value of the BTC holdings, anything more is unwarranted. The underlying business is worth what it was prior to his BTC tangent, just pull up a chart and find what the stock was trading prior...PLUS or MINUS the asset value of BTC.
So given he is underwater, looks like I was light on my numbers, he is down over 1.3B plus so the intrinsic enterprise value is probably more like 5 bucks...
Net out the BTC position, and add or subtract it from the underlying enterprise value and MSTR has literally no asset value right now.
That isnt the point at all, the point which Ive made repeatedly and you have been a total jerk about repeatedly is the guy is using debt and leverage and that is reckless and it could EASILY destroy the underlying business.
He is over 500M in the red all using debt, the market cap of MSTR should be the core business plus or minus the value of the BTC holdings, anything more is unwarranted. The underlying business is worth what it was prior to his BTC tangent, just pull up a chart and find what the stock was trading prior...PLUS or MINUS the asset value of BTC.
So given he is underwater, looks like I was light on my numbers, he is down over 1.3B plus so the intrinsic enterprise value is probably more like 5 bucks...
Net out the BTC position, and add or subtract it from the underlying enterprise value and MSTR has literally no asset value right now.
Sorry I can’t have a conversation with someone that calls me a jerk and then cries when I respond in the same manner.
Anyways… if I had to guess right now I would say we’re about halfway through the dump.
As of now here’s a few guesses for the bottom
BTC $12,000
ETH $700
ATOM $4
DOT $4
BNB $100
SOL $20
AAVE $20
AVAX $6
It’s tough to time the bottom perfectly. You just don’t want to be way off — Like buy ETH at $1000 and have it go to $200. Even though I think it will go between $15k-$20k by 2026 — you can just buy so many more at $200 vs $1000.
$100k of ETH at $1000 = 100 ETH
$100k of ETH at $200 = 500 ETH
100 ETH at $15,000 = $1.5m
500 ETH at $15,000 = $7.5m
So that’s why you want to put in effort trying to time the bottom correctly. But you don’t want to wait for the bottom that never comes because then you have to buy in at higher prices.
$100k of ETH at $2000 = 50 ETH
50 ETH at $15,000 = $750,000
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Sorry I can’t have a conversation with someone that calls me a jerk and then cries when I respond in the same manner.
Anyways… if I had to guess right now I would say we’re about halfway through the dump.
As of now here’s a few guesses for the bottom
BTC $12,000
ETH $700
ATOM $4
DOT $4
BNB $100
SOL $20
AAVE $20
AVAX $6
It’s tough to time the bottom perfectly. You just don’t want to be way off — Like buy ETH at $1000 and have it go to $200. Even though I think it will go between $15k-$20k by 2026 — you can just buy so many more at $200 vs $1000.
$100k of ETH at $1000 = 100 ETH
$100k of ETH at $200 = 500 ETH
100 ETH at $15,000 = $1.5m
500 ETH at $15,000 = $7.5m
So that’s why you want to put in effort trying to time the bottom correctly. But you don’t want to wait for the bottom that never comes because then you have to buy in at higher prices.
Crypto will have another major run. All of the best math/computer minds from MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Asia, Europe, went from going to Microsoft, Apple, Google etc 5-10 years ago to going into crypto. They’re still in crypto and they’ll figure it out even though it’s a mess right now.
You want to buy when nobody believes and sell when everyone believes.
It’s time to start paying attention and do research if you still need convincing … because the bottom is getting close. It happens fast so you want funds available — either in your bank account or sitting on a trustworthy exchange in USDT or USDC.
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Crypto will have another major run. All of the best math/computer minds from MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Asia, Europe, went from going to Microsoft, Apple, Google etc 5-10 years ago to going into crypto. They’re still in crypto and they’ll figure it out even though it’s a mess right now.
You want to buy when nobody believes and sell when everyone believes.
It’s time to start paying attention and do research if you still need convincing … because the bottom is getting close. It happens fast so you want funds available — either in your bank account or sitting on a trustworthy exchange in USDT or USDC.
I'm a big believer in bitcoin as I think it will become important as the dollar becomes expensive versus other currencies. I have positions in bitcoin as well as in bitcoin miners. I feel this is an era of digital assets rather than tangible such as gold, silver, etc. However, I think gold and silver etfs/miners have a place in a portfolio except that I'm not buying. It would probably be not beneficial to have physical gold or silver because of conversion costs and risks
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I'm a big believer in bitcoin as I think it will become important as the dollar becomes expensive versus other currencies. I have positions in bitcoin as well as in bitcoin miners. I feel this is an era of digital assets rather than tangible such as gold, silver, etc. However, I think gold and silver etfs/miners have a place in a portfolio except that I'm not buying. It would probably be not beneficial to have physical gold or silver because of conversion costs and risks
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I'm still buying bitcoin stocks at these levels. Even if bitcoin goes down, I'm still buying. It will take some time for the world to put bitcoin on a pedestal. Hopefully, when that happens, I can cash out.
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I'm still buying bitcoin stocks at these levels. Even if bitcoin goes down, I'm still buying. It will take some time for the world to put bitcoin on a pedestal. Hopefully, when that happens, I can cash out.
Look out below !! Bitcoin is an unregulated disaster, and that is the least of its problems. It is The Wild Wild West of Investing... I mean Gambling. Sam Bankman Fried should be put behind bars for the fraud that he is.
The reasons for owning Bitcoin have changed since its inception. From "an uncorrelated asset to stocks" (which has turned out to be false), to "an unregulated, decentralized asset class that will benefit from being detached from regulation." (false).
For anybody that has money in crypto, understand you could lose it all. You have to worry not only about the price of bitcoin, but for the exchanges that hold/service your BTC orders.
0
Look out below !! Bitcoin is an unregulated disaster, and that is the least of its problems. It is The Wild Wild West of Investing... I mean Gambling. Sam Bankman Fried should be put behind bars for the fraud that he is.
The reasons for owning Bitcoin have changed since its inception. From "an uncorrelated asset to stocks" (which has turned out to be false), to "an unregulated, decentralized asset class that will benefit from being detached from regulation." (false).
For anybody that has money in crypto, understand you could lose it all. You have to worry not only about the price of bitcoin, but for the exchanges that hold/service your BTC orders.
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