Robinhood has been down all day. Funny how retail investors get treated.
I saw that. Going from -500 to +500. lol.
I think even if we take the best case scenario w/ this virus, with no additional U.S. deaths or significant disruptions to everyday life, earnings for this year are a done deal (in a bad way). Many companies are going to report earnings 50% off (just a WAG) of their expectation just a couple of months ago. This is a done deal IMHO, due to the disruptions to supply chains and factory production in China and elsewhere in Asia. Are traders and investors ready to throw out a full year of earnings until normalcy returns hopefully in 2021 ??
I saw that. Going from -500 to +500. lol.
I think even if we take the best case scenario w/ this virus, with no additional U.S. deaths or significant disruptions to everyday life, earnings for this year are a done deal (in a bad way). Many companies are going to report earnings 50% off (just a WAG) of their expectation just a couple of months ago. This is a done deal IMHO, due to the disruptions to supply chains and factory production in China and elsewhere in Asia. Are traders and investors ready to throw out a full year of earnings until normalcy returns hopefully in 2021 ??
Founder of Binance is now the wealthiest man in crypto with a net worth of $2.6 billion.
Ex CEO Bitmain — $1.6 Billion
CEO OKCoin — $1.4 Billion
Chris Larsen of Ripple — $1.3 Billion
Brian Armstrong of Coinbase — $1 Billion
Founder of Binance is now the wealthiest man in crypto with a net worth of $2.6 billion.
Ex CEO Bitmain — $1.6 Billion
CEO OKCoin — $1.4 Billion
Chris Larsen of Ripple — $1.3 Billion
Brian Armstrong of Coinbase — $1 Billion
Look at the bond market...bonds are being bought and yields are dropping. Want to know why the market is up and bonds are up? All the market cares about is getting lower rates from the FED...that is the sole reason we dropped as to con the FED and why we are up 1k today with zero news and no cure or anything positive.
The casino wants a lower vig and they are going to get it, that is all that has ever mattered.
Look at the bond market...bonds are being bought and yields are dropping. Want to know why the market is up and bonds are up? All the market cares about is getting lower rates from the FED...that is the sole reason we dropped as to con the FED and why we are up 1k today with zero news and no cure or anything positive.
The casino wants a lower vig and they are going to get it, that is all that has ever mattered.
Is the fed going to jump in and lower rates before their scheduled date?
Doesnt this seem seem like a lot just to get a quarter point shave? Wouldn’t we need more blood?
Whats your prediction for the outcome of all of this?
Is the fed going to jump in and lower rates before their scheduled date?
Doesnt this seem seem like a lot just to get a quarter point shave? Wouldn’t we need more blood?
Whats your prediction for the outcome of all of this?
I dont think the market cares about the virus, they are underestimating the impact and think we will shrug it off, there is no reason why the market would go up 1200 like this except for the fact that they know the rate cut is a done deal.
Look at the 10 year its down to 1.06% and the 30 is what below 1.75? This market functions off leverage and cheap cash..nothing else outside a massive shock will change that. It ticks me off because I really think valuations are 50-75% too high, I do not see value out there at all outside energy but that hasnt mattered in ten years.
I dont think the market cares about the virus, they are underestimating the impact and think we will shrug it off, there is no reason why the market would go up 1200 like this except for the fact that they know the rate cut is a done deal.
Look at the 10 year its down to 1.06% and the 30 is what below 1.75? This market functions off leverage and cheap cash..nothing else outside a massive shock will change that. It ticks me off because I really think valuations are 50-75% too high, I do not see value out there at all outside energy but that hasnt mattered in ten years.
Ask Japan..they have been in this state for 25 years. Their market moves off their central bank and not much else.
Our GDP is garbage, how anyone could think that 2-2.5 for the debt we have and the lack of savings is good is just out to lunch. The market valuations have been dramatically outpacing GDP growth for several years and bond rates keep falling. This tells you that the driver of the market is the FED, leverage and speculation.
Maybe the market will never drop, because the last guy to ever even moderately challenge the market was that slimeball Greenspan, since then every single FED leader has done what the market wants, they never speak about valuation or excess ever. This market has the greatest excess ever, much worse than the .com bubble that 'spam called out yet these FED mouth pieces refuse to address it. It also does not help when you have the most idiotic president in history who cheer leads the market like he works for CNBC.
Ask Japan..they have been in this state for 25 years. Their market moves off their central bank and not much else.
Our GDP is garbage, how anyone could think that 2-2.5 for the debt we have and the lack of savings is good is just out to lunch. The market valuations have been dramatically outpacing GDP growth for several years and bond rates keep falling. This tells you that the driver of the market is the FED, leverage and speculation.
Maybe the market will never drop, because the last guy to ever even moderately challenge the market was that slimeball Greenspan, since then every single FED leader has done what the market wants, they never speak about valuation or excess ever. This market has the greatest excess ever, much worse than the .com bubble that 'spam called out yet these FED mouth pieces refuse to address it. It also does not help when you have the most idiotic president in history who cheer leads the market like he works for CNBC.
The markets are were down roughly 14% last week and you think the markets are still over valued? We just had the fastest 10% plus correction in the history of the markets but you guys are pulling for a crash that might have investors searching for tall buildings to jump off of? It ticks you off because the markets are still 50-75% overvalued? And we have the most idiotic president in history?
Talk about negativity overload.
I remain long our markets through thick and skin just as I have done for the last 3 decades. We might drop another 10% or 20% or more. Who knows? In 2030 where do you think the markets will be?
The markets are were down roughly 14% last week and you think the markets are still over valued? We just had the fastest 10% plus correction in the history of the markets but you guys are pulling for a crash that might have investors searching for tall buildings to jump off of? It ticks you off because the markets are still 50-75% overvalued? And we have the most idiotic president in history?
Talk about negativity overload.
I remain long our markets through thick and skin just as I have done for the last 3 decades. We might drop another 10% or 20% or more. Who knows? In 2030 where do you think the markets will be?
Yeah still 50-75% overvalued...and yeah Trump is a big fat whining market cheerleader. Any time the market drops a fleck he has to be bashing the FED and crying about how high our rates are. Even a knucklehead like Trump knows what drives the market...it isnt GDP numbers, its that single number from the FED.
Why do we need to drop to zero when the drop from 5 to 1 brought next to no growth relative to the drop? Why because Trump wants to run the casino and brag about it...he is worse than watching that clown Cramerica blabber on about the market.
So has the market ratios outpaced GDP growth or not? And if so why has it? Why would earnings outpace GDP? Anyone? If you think about it...say I own a Burger King and my sales are 1M in a year, off that my owners return is 15%...meaning after all is paid, similar to net income or reported earnings for a corp.
If my business goes up 5% the next year just due to an increase in sales without an increase in other inputs like marketing or more capacity, just based on usual stuff. How much should my earnings go up on that 5%? On that 5% my earnings should go up 15% of the increase given all else equal. So I should see a flow through to the bottom line of .25% or so.
How have corporate profits gone up MUCH more than GDP growth? Some industries have higher margins than 15% some have lower, but in general how do corporate earnings and thus PE ratios move more than GDP growth and the flow through with margins?
The market is dramatically overvalued, the excuses are that interest rates being artificially low equate to higher PE ratios because of cost of capital are lower....so the FED taking from savers and giving to corps makes the stock market valuations look better. THAT is why the market only cares about the FED and interest rates...barring a shock that is not expected.
And that is why the market sold off in that fashion and bounced back today...they baited the FED and it looks like the FED took the bait so the casino rallied.
Yeah still 50-75% overvalued...and yeah Trump is a big fat whining market cheerleader. Any time the market drops a fleck he has to be bashing the FED and crying about how high our rates are. Even a knucklehead like Trump knows what drives the market...it isnt GDP numbers, its that single number from the FED.
Why do we need to drop to zero when the drop from 5 to 1 brought next to no growth relative to the drop? Why because Trump wants to run the casino and brag about it...he is worse than watching that clown Cramerica blabber on about the market.
So has the market ratios outpaced GDP growth or not? And if so why has it? Why would earnings outpace GDP? Anyone? If you think about it...say I own a Burger King and my sales are 1M in a year, off that my owners return is 15%...meaning after all is paid, similar to net income or reported earnings for a corp.
If my business goes up 5% the next year just due to an increase in sales without an increase in other inputs like marketing or more capacity, just based on usual stuff. How much should my earnings go up on that 5%? On that 5% my earnings should go up 15% of the increase given all else equal. So I should see a flow through to the bottom line of .25% or so.
How have corporate profits gone up MUCH more than GDP growth? Some industries have higher margins than 15% some have lower, but in general how do corporate earnings and thus PE ratios move more than GDP growth and the flow through with margins?
The market is dramatically overvalued, the excuses are that interest rates being artificially low equate to higher PE ratios because of cost of capital are lower....so the FED taking from savers and giving to corps makes the stock market valuations look better. THAT is why the market only cares about the FED and interest rates...barring a shock that is not expected.
And that is why the market sold off in that fashion and bounced back today...they baited the FED and it looks like the FED took the bait so the casino rallied.
Wall. I will not pretend to know as much as you in regard to the markets, rates and the economy. Your grasp of these concepts exceeds 99% of the people I come across on this planet.
So again I ask the question? If you have the playbook, why not call the winning plays? The Fed, along with policy makers across the globe have been singing the same tune for a decade now. Why not take advantage?
Wall. I will not pretend to know as much as you in regard to the markets, rates and the economy. Your grasp of these concepts exceeds 99% of the people I come across on this planet.
So again I ask the question? If you have the playbook, why not call the winning plays? The Fed, along with policy makers across the globe have been singing the same tune for a decade now. Why not take advantage?
Don't fight the FED.. we've all heard the mantra. It's important to stay invested in markets. Look it, I share some of the same concerns WALL has brought up, but I also understand that being out of the market can have disastrous consequences in attaining wealth. Surely, there are other avenues to consider ( real estate), but stocks remain THE best way to grow one's money.
WALL, the " Buffett Indicator " is a similar tool to measure Total Market Capitalization vs. Total GDP. (You earlier asked if the market ratios outpaced GDP growth or not) . The answer is a resounding YES. This measurement showed stock prices to be way elevated compared w national output (i.e. GDP) Up until a couple of weeks ago, this "Buffet Indicator" approached the dot bomb era in market euphoria. Company Share buybacks have been a HUGE contributor to the decades long bull market rally, and share repurchases artificially inflates stock prices as you know by reducing PE ratios. But What can I do about this ? I would much rather prefer companies invest in their own business , rather than invest in their "stock" , but we do not have that in today's environment. Surely, companies are also borrowing money at today's low rates to engage in this behavior, leading to inflated levels of corporate debt, too.
So, what's the point of all this ? I could on and on about different measures that cause me concern about the market today, but I also recognize stocks are the best Avenue to attaining wealth, over long periods of time, so I stay invested. Over analysis can lead to paralysis and have terrible consequences for one's financial future.
Don't fight the FED.. we've all heard the mantra. It's important to stay invested in markets. Look it, I share some of the same concerns WALL has brought up, but I also understand that being out of the market can have disastrous consequences in attaining wealth. Surely, there are other avenues to consider ( real estate), but stocks remain THE best way to grow one's money.
WALL, the " Buffett Indicator " is a similar tool to measure Total Market Capitalization vs. Total GDP. (You earlier asked if the market ratios outpaced GDP growth or not) . The answer is a resounding YES. This measurement showed stock prices to be way elevated compared w national output (i.e. GDP) Up until a couple of weeks ago, this "Buffet Indicator" approached the dot bomb era in market euphoria. Company Share buybacks have been a HUGE contributor to the decades long bull market rally, and share repurchases artificially inflates stock prices as you know by reducing PE ratios. But What can I do about this ? I would much rather prefer companies invest in their own business , rather than invest in their "stock" , but we do not have that in today's environment. Surely, companies are also borrowing money at today's low rates to engage in this behavior, leading to inflated levels of corporate debt, too.
So, what's the point of all this ? I could on and on about different measures that cause me concern about the market today, but I also recognize stocks are the best Avenue to attaining wealth, over long periods of time, so I stay invested. Over analysis can lead to paralysis and have terrible consequences for one's financial future.
I hope you took your own advice and started fishing in Energy companies. Exxon and Chevron were nearly 30% below their 52 week highs last week , and paid close to a 6% yield. I find it hard to believe that oil will be below $50 / barrel long term (roughly today's price) , so enjoy a 6 % dividend if the stock did nothing else..
I hope you took your own advice and started fishing in Energy companies. Exxon and Chevron were nearly 30% below their 52 week highs last week , and paid close to a 6% yield. I find it hard to believe that oil will be below $50 / barrel long term (roughly today's price) , so enjoy a 6 % dividend if the stock did nothing else..
How many plebs are going to caught in this bull trap?
I hope everyone is planning their exit strategy.
You just experienced one of the greatest runs in history.
Pigs get slaughtered.
How many plebs are going to caught in this bull trap?
I hope everyone is planning their exit strategy.
You just experienced one of the greatest runs in history.
Pigs get slaughtered.
Rush,
I dont want the big boys, their ratios are too high...for how stupid it sounds I am looking for that selective multi bagger that has risk but also has a good chance for a big return. if you buy XOM or CVX you can get that yield yeah but if oil reverses they will go up but slower vs a higher beta stock that has been creamed. An example of that would be RIG...its getting knocked around but their ratios of cash/debt arent all that bad and they can pay the interest on the debt and are not at default risk plus their upside is likely 3-5x more than the divi players.
If I were divi hunting or longer term investing I'd probably research the best ETF and play it that way...and maybe I will do that. I am not convinced that if the market retreats that energy wont because it will. If the market goes down then oil will too if there is a fear of economic slowdown so there are good odds energy can go even lower.
Ive been roasted being long in the market because everyone is long and you dont lose money unless you are out of the market. Ive seen multi million dollar accounts vaporized with that approach and I think this market is MUCH worse than those markets.
What you said about corps is spot on and I see it the same way. Corps can borrow in the debt market and pay what 1-3 percent pretty much and use that to inflate stock prices which benefits insiders and the market, to give dividends to investors and insiders and the interest paid is MUCH MUCH lower in "cost" than the benefit. It is the most disgusting practice and we applaud and reward it. Businesses have been suppressing employee compensation but expanding shareholder enrichment...it should be the reverse. It is also who wage growth is severely lagging market returns and that shows where corps are spending money.
I think I will put 10% of my money back in and let that be the top of the market...lol
Rush,
I dont want the big boys, their ratios are too high...for how stupid it sounds I am looking for that selective multi bagger that has risk but also has a good chance for a big return. if you buy XOM or CVX you can get that yield yeah but if oil reverses they will go up but slower vs a higher beta stock that has been creamed. An example of that would be RIG...its getting knocked around but their ratios of cash/debt arent all that bad and they can pay the interest on the debt and are not at default risk plus their upside is likely 3-5x more than the divi players.
If I were divi hunting or longer term investing I'd probably research the best ETF and play it that way...and maybe I will do that. I am not convinced that if the market retreats that energy wont because it will. If the market goes down then oil will too if there is a fear of economic slowdown so there are good odds energy can go even lower.
Ive been roasted being long in the market because everyone is long and you dont lose money unless you are out of the market. Ive seen multi million dollar accounts vaporized with that approach and I think this market is MUCH worse than those markets.
What you said about corps is spot on and I see it the same way. Corps can borrow in the debt market and pay what 1-3 percent pretty much and use that to inflate stock prices which benefits insiders and the market, to give dividends to investors and insiders and the interest paid is MUCH MUCH lower in "cost" than the benefit. It is the most disgusting practice and we applaud and reward it. Businesses have been suppressing employee compensation but expanding shareholder enrichment...it should be the reverse. It is also who wage growth is severely lagging market returns and that shows where corps are spending money.
I think I will put 10% of my money back in and let that be the top of the market...lol
You already sold out so now everyone else is a pleb? Says the guy that has all of his ammo in crypto? It looks like we have well established lines in the sand....let's see whom ends up carried away in a haboob.
You already sold out so now everyone else is a pleb? Says the guy that has all of his ammo in crypto? It looks like we have well established lines in the sand....let's see whom ends up carried away in a haboob.
October 29, 2008
The last time the fed announced an emergency 50 bps rate cut.
Im sure it’s nothing. Dow will probably just go up and up until everyone is rich.
October 29, 2008
The last time the fed announced an emergency 50 bps rate cut.
Im sure it’s nothing. Dow will probably just go up and up until everyone is rich.
NYSE 12,678
Dow Jones 26,103
SPY 302.79
Gold 1,606
BTC 8,700
NYSE 12,678
Dow Jones 26,103
SPY 302.79
Gold 1,606
BTC 8,700
The uncertainty we have currently on two major fronts (Corona/Trump) is what will prevent the typically hopeful V shaped recovery that many, myself included, were hoping for. The virus situation will lack complete clarity for months, but will certainly become less uncertain as soon as the November elections.
The two events hopefully align in November when Trump gets 4 more years and a vaccine for the virus is deemed a success. Between now and then, we will be dealing with a roller coaster. After it's all said and done, the markets will figure out how much of a haircut was appropriate for the hit to US and Global GDP and that will be that.
The cuts today are inconsequential to speeding up any vaccine, but they do ensure that money will remain cheap when we come out the other side. And we know what that means right?
The uncertainty we have currently on two major fronts (Corona/Trump) is what will prevent the typically hopeful V shaped recovery that many, myself included, were hoping for. The virus situation will lack complete clarity for months, but will certainly become less uncertain as soon as the November elections.
The two events hopefully align in November when Trump gets 4 more years and a vaccine for the virus is deemed a success. Between now and then, we will be dealing with a roller coaster. After it's all said and done, the markets will figure out how much of a haircut was appropriate for the hit to US and Global GDP and that will be that.
The cuts today are inconsequential to speeding up any vaccine, but they do ensure that money will remain cheap when we come out the other side. And we know what that means right?
Wall, it's funny you mention RIG. I'd taken a look at that one months ago, and steered clear of it. As you correctly point out, it's a high beta name with high risk , high reward. You know what you're doing ; I just chose not to go that deep in the dumpster fire that is the Energy Sector. I know Exxon and Chevron will be there in the end and they are already down big time. I just don't have that confidence in an off-shore driller, when heck, even the land based drillers are awash in oil. That's the easy oil. I just don't know who in the heck would be drilling off-shore when that's the harder to find oil. In any event, you've looked at the debt levels etc. to realize how risky it is. I'm just observing from 20,000 ft. and giving my concerns in offshore.
I think if I'd come across a huge lump sum of money, I'd invest 50% of it in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds today, and dollar cost average the other half over 10 or so years. Accelerate the process and add a few months worth of buying if the market hits certain levels.. -20,-30, -40%, etc. This plan can help mitigate the fear of buying all-in at a top, and actually root for downturns, and can help keep a person invested in the market.
GL in whatever you choose. We're all here to help each other make some money!
Wall, it's funny you mention RIG. I'd taken a look at that one months ago, and steered clear of it. As you correctly point out, it's a high beta name with high risk , high reward. You know what you're doing ; I just chose not to go that deep in the dumpster fire that is the Energy Sector. I know Exxon and Chevron will be there in the end and they are already down big time. I just don't have that confidence in an off-shore driller, when heck, even the land based drillers are awash in oil. That's the easy oil. I just don't know who in the heck would be drilling off-shore when that's the harder to find oil. In any event, you've looked at the debt levels etc. to realize how risky it is. I'm just observing from 20,000 ft. and giving my concerns in offshore.
I think if I'd come across a huge lump sum of money, I'd invest 50% of it in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds today, and dollar cost average the other half over 10 or so years. Accelerate the process and add a few months worth of buying if the market hits certain levels.. -20,-30, -40%, etc. This plan can help mitigate the fear of buying all-in at a top, and actually root for downturns, and can help keep a person invested in the market.
GL in whatever you choose. We're all here to help each other make some money!
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