Crypto thread

What a lame point of view. 

It’s borderline feminine. 

I’m not saving the US economy and I don’t expect anyone to save me. Do you want me to get out my pom poms and route for the markets, that I just sold out of, to go to the moon? 

I sold houses, stocks, and made a play. My play is that 2019/2020 was the top of the housing and stock markets. 

NYSE 10,515 

Dow 22,679 

SPY 264 

Gold 1,700 oz 

BTC 7,280 

I see you Detox. You are in it for yourself and if the economy crumbles and stocks crater another 50% you will have your day in the sun. You will have all of your money in Bitcoin hovering near $100,000 per BTC and the world will have crumbled to pieces. That's your best case scenario but it's a world that no one wants except you. Good luck to you and your hopes for the future!

Nice to see my main man Michael Burry pushing back on this corona scam 

They’re called market cycles, look it up. 

When HD hits $80 will you print out the 10y chart, sign it, and send it to me? 

Word on the streets is that $1.7 trillion worth of PPP applications have been filed. 

They’ve allotted $350 billion for small businesses.

I doubt HD ever hits 80, but if it does I will be here to express my condolences for the death of the housing markets, charts and all. Even though we don't have faces for the names here, we will all know to look for the guy celebrating with the pom-poms and the BTC 100K hat!

I would prefer to see foreclosures everywhere like in 09. Not sure how they’re going to handle it when 30% of the country can’t pay. I don’t think they’ll foreclose on everyone again. Either way, I’ll be there to scoop the blood. 

That's a demoralizing scenario to see a repeat like 09 in the housing market.   Frankly, I can't see it happening for the simple point that the consumer had 0%  responsibility for the mess that we are in.  Compare that to 09 when the consumer shared a large portion of the responsibility for their own demise.  (Even then, you had bailouts for the homeowner (when it was largely their fault), for the simple reason to keep the bank afloat...)

This time in '20 is way different.  So, how does this play out ?  I could see the government backstopping the banks for the mortgage payments consumers won't be able to make.   The patient (economy) is still on life support, and the doctor (government) will do all they can to administer the drug (money) to keep the patient in a coma, for however long is necessary .  The Federal Reserve's Printer is working just fine,  and has an infinite supply of ink. 

Here are the issues I see in the current real estate market. Some areas are MORE inflated than they were in 2008, California and some east coast are higher than back in 2008-2009, down here prices are lower than during the bubble by a bit. I live in an area where there are some houses built at the peak and some after the peak and prices are still a solid 30-40% off peak because I know what the people who bought in 2007 paid, its public info. Las Vegas also a bubble in 2008 is nowhere near it was. Places like Salt Lake City are higher than in 2008 and some in the south are...some areas in Chicago are..so there are for sure hot spots. There are also areas in the shale patch that are still overpriced and were not in existence in 2008.

The bubble  here is those hot spots AND that nasty Air BNB issue...the buy and flip mentality in 2008 has been replaced with the buy 10 rental houses and have no skin in the game and be a millionaire. Those houses are a ticking time bomb. I have a friend who runs a cleaning business for vacation rentals and down here thats a pretty big industry...until like May and then people get out of Arizona. Their business has flatlined totally, the vacation rental market has evaporated...overnight just dead. So what happens when those borrowers who leveraged so much are getting little to nothing for rentals? Do they go into foreclosure? Of course they do...and quickly. Then the dominos start tumbling.

Prices in general where I live have gone up about 40% in the last ten years or so...and that is off the bottom and that is not a bubble to me but those outlying areas are likely to get hit the fringe metro areas that people moved to for a bigger house. Like in 2008 those areas might get clobbered.

Monero 

Wall. I agree with you on the VRBO, Air B&B situation. It will be bad for those with too much leverage. Let's hope the banks did a better job than they did prior to 2008 when the rubber stamp of approval was a formality with the property being sight unseen. I'm guessing this will not be nearly as bad as 2008-9 because this, despite the tragedy and loss of lives, is a impermanent situation. In a year this will be "put to bed" for those people. 

As far as your 40%, 10 year housing theology, I disagree. Real estate pricing MUST go higher with the economy. It always has and it always will. Why would people buy homes and pay the vig on the loan, pay the yearly property tax, and then pay for maintenance without any payoff in price appreciation? If what you say would be true, then everyone would be a renter because it would be a better investment than paying vig, property taxes, etc. 

But if everyone was a renter, whom would the land-lord be???? 

See what I did there?

The median age of US homebuyers was 31 in 1981. In 2009 it was 40. It is now 47+. 

Young people are being crushed by student debt. 

Boomers are going to be selling. But not at these prices.

LeatherPants, 

I do like Monero as a long term play. In 10 years we won’t have anymore cash so privacy coins like Monero will play a big role.

Will be interesting to see how the privacy coin works out. When we go cashless, there will be a major void that needs to be filled. Drug dealers, arms dealers, cartels, cyber criminals and anyone else that doesn’t want anyone to know what they’re up to. 

The governments will probably try to squash it by putting pressure on exchanges down the road. 

Dow futures +1000 

Seems like crypto is tied to the market. Which is a bad sign to me. 

I need to get a few shorts in this week. Time to figure out the best way to do that. It seems as though Robinhood is easier than ETrade. 

Any opinions on what we should be looking at to short? 

Why can’t I wrap my brain around the terminology involved in a short? 

Robinhood — HD ($190.35) 

I think it’s going down 

Buy a put 

short term/medium/long — I understand for the most part 

Medium — $155 strike — 9/18 exp — this means it needs to be below $155 by 9/18? 

Buy 1 contract of 100 shares — limit price — bid $8.50 ask $13 — what is this bid/ask? 

Alright I just spent $207 on a short term put on HD. NOT FEELING CONFIDENT! 

1 contract at $2.07 

Break even price is $182.93 

Exp date 4/17 

I would like to short more but I’m too dumb to comprehend WTF I am doing. 

Wallstreet, I pay you way too much money for you to be MIA for this long! 

Yep. That is a short term one. You got which one. The 190 put?  

So you already have a sell order in?  Because you don’t want to miss out.  

This is good practice to get you used to it.  That way you get experience with making sure you automatically do this so you can lock in what you like as a profit and stop out at a loss you are comfortable losing.  

Whatever site you use should have an option analyzing tool you can use.  Time is a very crucial part of figuring out what to set these numbers at.  With a very short term one like this you cannot forget to factor the time into your overall plan.  

Today’s return +$78 or 38% 

No idea what’s going on 

I don’t have a sell order in yet I just did it an hour ago and I have until 4/17 I thought? 

Technically you do. But they expire worthless and a total loss if you haven’t sold them by then. 

You should automatically put a sell order in when you buy them.  That way you can set it up like you want.  Options will move at a larger % than the overall stock will move. 

For example— if you got the 190s.  They close yesterday at 5.61. Opened at 1.66 and have been as high as 3.40 today.  So, yes you have potential profit already.  But if you had put a sell order in at say 3.40 it would have hit it and triggered the sale.  But if you don’t — it can go back down to 1.66 or lower — or on the 17th expire worthless.  

Always have a plan going in with options. 

Where does the 5.61 and 1.66 number come from? 

That was the closing number yesterday. The opening number today. 

Currently at 4.10 as of last trade.  See what I mean.  You could have sold it at $410 already. 

But where does that number come from? What is it based on? 

I put the trade in when HD was $200. It’s still $197. This bad Larry will be $180 at some point before close Thursday and that’s when I sell. 

Thanks for the help.