December Stock Talk I

HLIT is silently creeping up each day

I am considering USO for a long term investment as well.  Something to sock away for 5 years when I fully expect the world to be functioning normally again.  Only thing holding me back is the continued development of alternative energy sources.  Have you considered this in your analysis?  Do you think this poses a legitimate risk to the value of oil down the road?

Good question, emerging market countries without much extra money per customer (hell I could even be talking about the USA the way we are going) are going to burn 40,50,60,70,80,ect. dollar oil. The developing energy plays are more for electrical means and the power grid (not for instantly replacing the fossil fuel combustable engine), but who can afford, or wants to pay $40,000 for a GM volt, 7 or 8 grand for a natural gas fill up car modification kit, Car companies still like fossil fuel combustable engines partly because electrical automobiles have less moving parts to replace, less to repair, ect. a seperate parts industry for fossil fuel combustible engines is an important employment generating, tax revenue generating, ect. industry in and of itself. How much will natural gas increase in price (be less cost competitive with oil at 70 dollars a barrel or gas at 2.50 per gallon) when we drive our cars with natural gas, power our plants with natural gas, heat our homes with natural gas, ect. ? Why is GM temporarily suspending the GM volt engine development? Because they need oil and gas at $3.50 and above for it to be cost competitive enough for consumers to even consider it. It all boils down to cost efficiency. Talk about $150 a barrel oil, and gas at $4.50 a gallon and then alternative energy versus the combustible engine is much more cost efficient. Oil is so cheap right now, people are not forced to change their habits in the US (nor can many of them afford it) yet alone the emerging markets, China, India, ect. which have much less cash (or credit) per customer. Hopefully a "Manhattan Project" comes along to make the alternative automobile technology at a cost competitive basis, but capitalism and profits are going to burn this cheap oil until it goes high enough to once again become cost competitive and painful at the pump IMO. Market forces will drive oil up again, but right now on the way down oil is temporarily at the mercy of the hedge funds, just like it was at $140+. Oil has been the most efficient fossil fuel for combustible engines for around 100 years for good reason. That can't be changed overnight, again, for good reason. Henry Ford thought alcohol was the answer, but we can see that creating alcohol burns lots of oil to harvest it, electricity to create it, oil to ship it, ect. Everything has it's price, and that's why oil has always won because it was always at the cheapest price especially at 40,50,60,ect. dollars a barrel. 

Again,

Since when did etc. start getting spelled ect.?  This is the second thread in the investments forum where I have seen this

Anyone like Sprint under $1.70?  4.8 bil market cap seems nuts to me compared to 160+ bil for AT&T.  I think they can survive.  I might take a shot.

Depeche,

They are losing market share..revenues slowing and they have 5 times debt to market cap, margins are terrible.

When I look at their plans I dont see much that I like, they arent competitive and are being lost in the shuffle..their marketing plan seems to be in the toilet lately.

Its a risk but you could make a good return if you are right.

Has anyone seen a prospectus or any SEC filings on DXO or on USO?  I tried to find it on Edgar but was not able to.  I really like the idea of investing in oil, but I just don't totally trust these funds because I haven't been able to see what they hold.  Does anyone know exactly what they are investing in?  Do they actually purchase the futures that the results of the fund are supposed to be tied to?  Has anyone seen any evidence that supports this?

I'm looking at DXO and USO as well . . . however, I feel what is going on right now is you have a bunch of retail investors (like me) trying to time the bottom and it keeps going down.

I bet we could see low to mid 20's for USO and low 1's for DXO soon.  Maybe I am getting pretty greedy trying to time the bottom but I will take the chance. 

Of course I don't completely understand how DXO works so I have been watching the trade patterns the last few weeks to track it and while I do that it keeps going lower. 

I got in on SLV today at 10.26

the Fed's strategy is absurd. The best way to get prices rising again is to let them fall. The housing market needs to find the price where buyers and sellers meet. The more money the government throws at the market, the longer it'll take for prices to find their true equilibrium... and the more time we'll be stuck in a recession.

The above is a basic observation extracted from an ezine...as basic as it is, it remains one I agree with, as far as it goes...

 I will be interested to see if the markets can be manipulated on the scale necessary to accomplish what we would all like to see: a recovery. But methinks all the lessons they think they learned from the Depression are going to be refuted...



 



 

 And one more remark: what we have and what we will witness in the coming months will be one of the biggest boondoggles ever perpetrated on a people.

 I look at Madoff as the exemplar of the age, and the harbinger of things to come with the greatest Ponzi scheme of all time: Social Security.

A true optimist. 

Well FINALLY the end to the worst year I have ever witnessed, on many, many levels. Good riddance to bad rubbish!!!!

 Now CC have a little champagne (if you like it) and may a bubbly blonde wander your way...

  Hang in there everyone and have a safe New Year!!