wall - fwiw, i was speaking to a prospect for about 45 min today
in her words 'since last august we've moved further and further away from equities...mostly distressed and fixed. the market is fueled by emotion and fear these days'
they run a decent amount of money
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wall - fwiw, i was speaking to a prospect for about 45 min today
in her words 'since last august we've moved further and further away from equities...mostly distressed and fixed. the market is fueled by emotion and fear these days'
My comment was only that a one day rally after two months of pretty much straight selling seemed like it could extend another few days, but it sure did not.
VIX heating up..check this chart out-
LINK
A scary thought there, the VIX is still in an uptrend since middle of 2007 with higher highs..very scary.
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CC,
My comment was only that a one day rally after two months of pretty much straight selling seemed like it could extend another few days, but it sure did not.
VIX heating up..check this chart out-
LINK
A scary thought there, the VIX is still in an uptrend since middle of 2007 with higher highs..very scary.
To get a VIX of 30, looks like we'll need something like a down open of the DOW in the 400-500 range........that would probably cause some panic selling early in day as peeps just "throw in the towel" and capitulate.
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To get a VIX of 30, looks like we'll need something like a down open of the DOW in the 400-500 range........that would probably cause some panic selling early in day as peeps just "throw in the towel" and capitulate.
I got KOAJ's thoughts on this already but what are people's impressions on SEF or SKF as a buy and hold for the next 3 months...all I hear is the financial sector won't recover until early 2009 at the earliest
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I got KOAJ's thoughts on this already but what are people's impressions on SEF or SKF as a buy and hold for the next 3 months...all I hear is the financial sector won't recover until early 2009 at the earliest
the problem with double inverse ETFs like SKF is that they track the DAILY performance, not overall performance. so let's do some math:
UYG is the index that SKF is the double inverse of. let's say they are both at 100 to start, making it easy:
UYG 100
SKF 100
Day 1, UYG goes down 2% so SKF goes up 4%
UYG 98
SKF 104
Day 2, UYG goes up 5%, so SKF goes down 10%
UYG 102.9
SKF 93.6
Day 2, UYG goes down 2.82%, so SKF goes up 5.64%
UYG 100
SKF 98.88
UYG gets back to the same place, SKF trails. The only way SKF is a good LONG TERM hold, would be if UYG NEVER goes up. SKF should be for traders only, as should all inverse ETFs.
If you want to bet against the financials for the long term, short the XLF index. if you want to make some leveraged trades, buy SKF, but i wouldn't hold it for months at a time.
I didn't know the effect of the Daily Performance factor of these ETFs when i was heavy into them earlier this year. It is important to know. People that are smarter than me might be able to figure out some techniques for guaranteed money, like shorting both the long and the short index at the same time.
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the problem with double inverse ETFs like SKF is that they track the DAILY performance, not overall performance. so let's do some math:
UYG is the index that SKF is the double inverse of. let's say they are both at 100 to start, making it easy:
UYG 100
SKF 100
Day 1, UYG goes down 2% so SKF goes up 4%
UYG 98
SKF 104
Day 2, UYG goes up 5%, so SKF goes down 10%
UYG 102.9
SKF 93.6
Day 2, UYG goes down 2.82%, so SKF goes up 5.64%
UYG 100
SKF 98.88
UYG gets back to the same place, SKF trails. The only way SKF is a good LONG TERM hold, would be if UYG NEVER goes up. SKF should be for traders only, as should all inverse ETFs.
If you want to bet against the financials for the long term, short the XLF index. if you want to make some leveraged trades, buy SKF, but i wouldn't hold it for months at a time.
I didn't know the effect of the Daily Performance factor of these ETFs when i was heavy into them earlier this year. It is important to know. People that are smarter than me might be able to figure out some techniques for guaranteed money, like shorting both the long and the short index at the same time.
shorted everything and if it ran, just double down and cover later on ------- on fannie/freddie - as some one who is (was) in the housing market...the domino effect of their insolvency scares the piss out of me. all the while paulson and bernanke are playing the fiddle
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wall i traded that summer and made a lot of money
shorted everything and if it ran, just double down and cover later on ------- on fannie/freddie - as some one who is (was) in the housing market...the domino effect of their insolvency scares the piss out of me. all the while paulson and bernanke are playing the fiddle
If the big boys go under, the housing market is officially screwed.
LEH all over the place, two point swings multiple times today, crazy for sure.
Part of me thinks we are in big CC style of trouble, part of me remembers destruction like this and how that was the time to be IN the market, meaning the stock market AND real estate market..unless the world is ending we will weather this storm and there is money to be had.
Trouble is with housing even if I wanted to sell where I live and buy at auction to a better location, who the hell knows if a buyer could get a mortgage!!
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I agree completely.
If the big boys go under, the housing market is officially screwed.
LEH all over the place, two point swings multiple times today, crazy for sure.
Part of me thinks we are in big CC style of trouble, part of me remembers destruction like this and how that was the time to be IN the market, meaning the stock market AND real estate market..unless the world is ending we will weather this storm and there is money to be had.
Trouble is with housing even if I wanted to sell where I live and buy at auction to a better location, who the hell knows if a buyer could get a mortgage!!
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