we're up and away... lets get me the last week and a half of the month!
i see a nice ascending triangle in gbp/usd formed from the resistance line of the double top and the lows of june 8th and june 18th (based on 4hr chart)... will be looking for a break of one of these levels to go long or short
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
we're up and away... lets get me the last week and a half of the month!
i see a nice ascending triangle in gbp/usd formed from the resistance line of the double top and the lows of june 8th and june 18th (based on 4hr chart)... will be looking for a break of one of these levels to go long or short
eur/usd trying to break through 1.4 but keeps getting denied on the hourly...maybe it is running out of steam for a possible short? dont have my usual chart setups i can look at thoguh so im wary. interesting to see how the next candle(s) close out
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eur/usd trying to break through 1.4 but keeps getting denied on the hourly...maybe it is running out of steam for a possible short? dont have my usual chart setups i can look at thoguh so im wary. interesting to see how the next candle(s) close out
Nice short cover as well, I picked that long for the wrong reasons and it has been either severely negative or just barely positive. I expected the US markets to carry the pair but so far it hasnt and I get the feeling they are going to bring the markets lower today..talk about the 200 day moving average and support being breached yesterday on the SPX etc.
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Man some big moves but I am not in any of them.
EU.YEN up 300 pips this morning.
Nice short cover as well, I picked that long for the wrong reasons and it has been either severely negative or just barely positive. I expected the US markets to carry the pair but so far it hasnt and I get the feeling they are going to bring the markets lower today..talk about the 200 day moving average and support being breached yesterday on the SPX etc.
hourly candle closed pretty strongly above 1.4 for eur/usd...short is a no go for now. will be watching the 4hr candles. it has already broke above the resistance trendline i have and if it can get through this 1.4000 area, the next major resistance i have is 1.4150 which is a previous double top and what i have as 38% fib retrace level
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hourly candle closed pretty strongly above 1.4 for eur/usd...short is a no go for now. will be watching the 4hr candles. it has already broke above the resistance trendline i have and if it can get through this 1.4000 area, the next major resistance i have is 1.4150 which is a previous double top and what i have as 38% fib retrace level
The markets drive the USD, barring any monster data or info..so if you think the US markets are going lower, then almost any pair, but especially the weaker ones will go higher..so the CD or Yen or AUD will be good pairs to go on for the USD.
I think the US.AUD is the best pair if you think the US markets are going down because the AUD is controlled by commodities and commodity stocks..and if they go down, the AUD goes down a ton.
I guess the CD currency is heavy in commodities as well, especially oil.
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pop,
The markets drive the USD, barring any monster data or info..so if you think the US markets are going lower, then almost any pair, but especially the weaker ones will go higher..so the CD or Yen or AUD will be good pairs to go on for the USD.
I think the US.AUD is the best pair if you think the US markets are going down because the AUD is controlled by commodities and commodity stocks..and if they go down, the AUD goes down a ton.
I guess the CD currency is heavy in commodities as well, especially oil.
I just checked that site and I have to say I was scratching my head several times..especially on their targets.
They throw out targets 20 cents lower on some pair abased on previous chart action which without context that might look interesting, but you have to think back to what was happening that drove the pair to those areas and think if that action can happen again to get to those targets.
Look at those charts, March 2nd is the target long/short levels on all three main charts..so we have to think back and figure what happened in March to make these moves happen..within a week of that date, the SPX made those historic moves and lows, so if you think that the markets will go down to sub 7k again then you have the driver to get those pairs to those levels.
Trading only on chart patterns and not considering the underlying driver for the move is very risky business..one that I am not a subscriber of.
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pop,
I just checked that site and I have to say I was scratching my head several times..especially on their targets.
They throw out targets 20 cents lower on some pair abased on previous chart action which without context that might look interesting, but you have to think back to what was happening that drove the pair to those areas and think if that action can happen again to get to those targets.
Look at those charts, March 2nd is the target long/short levels on all three main charts..so we have to think back and figure what happened in March to make these moves happen..within a week of that date, the SPX made those historic moves and lows, so if you think that the markets will go down to sub 7k again then you have the driver to get those pairs to those levels.
Trading only on chart patterns and not considering the underlying driver for the move is very risky business..one that I am not a subscriber of.
nice one on the 50! you're definitely right though about the USD (at least lately...im not so sure there is always this correlation)... when there is increased fear of ressecion/world destabilizing event/etc then the markets usually go down whcih causes increase in investment in safe haven currency USD causing it to go higher. i don't really know enough about the markets to base my currency trades from them so i use almost purely technical analysis, while taking into consideration what events are coming up and how the markets are doing, etc.
i like to read that site as well as a few others, mainly to learn but also to try and get a feel for the overall sentiment of a currency or pair. they do a lot of times have conflicting arguements and charts, and i never base any trades on what they say or show (only the ones i feel are in agreement with what i think).
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nice one on the 50! you're definitely right though about the USD (at least lately...im not so sure there is always this correlation)... when there is increased fear of ressecion/world destabilizing event/etc then the markets usually go down whcih causes increase in investment in safe haven currency USD causing it to go higher. i don't really know enough about the markets to base my currency trades from them so i use almost purely technical analysis, while taking into consideration what events are coming up and how the markets are doing, etc.
i like to read that site as well as a few others, mainly to learn but also to try and get a feel for the overall sentiment of a currency or pair. they do a lot of times have conflicting arguements and charts, and i never base any trades on what they say or show (only the ones i feel are in agreement with what i think).
I am assuming you mean the Lb.Yen and not the Lb.USD right?
I see broken support there which broke on the 22nd, today..support being 155.6 or so before, now it might have resistance at 159 or so since it failed there and it looks like a sloppy H&S formation.
To me these US and contra-US pairs are range bound..the LB and the AUD looked like they broke previous support (the LB held better at 1.62 than the AUD) but look what happened with the slightest of US weakness? Most US contra pairs went crazy this afternoon.
A trade i really like setting up is if the EU.AUD fails or stalls around 1.79 and starts retracing..that looks like a great short setup.
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pop,
I am assuming you mean the Lb.Yen and not the Lb.USD right?
I see broken support there which broke on the 22nd, today..support being 155.6 or so before, now it might have resistance at 159 or so since it failed there and it looks like a sloppy H&S formation.
To me these US and contra-US pairs are range bound..the LB and the AUD looked like they broke previous support (the LB held better at 1.62 than the AUD) but look what happened with the slightest of US weakness? Most US contra pairs went crazy this afternoon.
A trade i really like setting up is if the EU.AUD fails or stalls around 1.79 and starts retracing..that looks like a great short setup.
wall, i meant gbp/usd... yesterday if you drew a support line with the lows i mentioned earlier o na 4hr chart, that is the line i am talking about... that is the line that i went short when it broke down through it. it went down now going back up and retesting it.
i like that eur/aud... kinda looks like a high wave formation (i think) on the 4 hours. gonna wit to get home and check charts there to see how it looks, but may be too late by then, looks like it might be coming down already
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wall, i meant gbp/usd... yesterday if you drew a support line with the lows i mentioned earlier o na 4hr chart, that is the line i am talking about... that is the line that i went short when it broke down through it. it went down now going back up and retesting it.
i like that eur/aud... kinda looks like a high wave formation (i think) on the 4 hours. gonna wit to get home and check charts there to see how it looks, but may be too late by then, looks like it might be coming down already
I misread..I was thinking you meant resistance which of course it wasnt, rather support.I gotcha.
The tough thing is that the support line is so stretched..from the 8th to the 10th it was straight up 500 pips and hardly any spikes or moves down to create good support lines..so you are stretching the support line through days of range trading (10th to the 22nd).
I like support where there is a trend in place and you can connect several trend lines and they are tested and are successful support..from the 11th to the 22nd, it was range trading with 1.62 holding, but connecting the line from the 6th-8th to there kind of skews the line..
Moving the time to a DAILY chart you see a longer term trend/support line..and if you look at a daily chart, that breach you are talking about today actually does not break the trend line from March 4th.
So far on a daily chart, the low on June 8 is lower than the low made today, so it would be considered not breaking the trend (at least to me).
About the only bearish comment I can make about the LB.USD on a daily chart is that the high made on June 3 hasnt been broken yet..if she breaks 1.66 and it holds, the pair keeps chugging to 1.73 and 1.86 on a weekly chart.
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I misread..I was thinking you meant resistance which of course it wasnt, rather support.I gotcha.
The tough thing is that the support line is so stretched..from the 8th to the 10th it was straight up 500 pips and hardly any spikes or moves down to create good support lines..so you are stretching the support line through days of range trading (10th to the 22nd).
I like support where there is a trend in place and you can connect several trend lines and they are tested and are successful support..from the 11th to the 22nd, it was range trading with 1.62 holding, but connecting the line from the 6th-8th to there kind of skews the line..
Moving the time to a DAILY chart you see a longer term trend/support line..and if you look at a daily chart, that breach you are talking about today actually does not break the trend line from March 4th.
So far on a daily chart, the low on June 8 is lower than the low made today, so it would be considered not breaking the trend (at least to me).
About the only bearish comment I can make about the LB.USD on a daily chart is that the high made on June 3 hasnt been broken yet..if she breaks 1.66 and it holds, the pair keeps chugging to 1.73 and 1.86 on a weekly chart.
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... gbp/jpy was also good but just entered the one trade.
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