June Stock Talk III

Wow this market is a pile of crap..

Accelerated selling this early in the day is not a good thing.

DOW about to break 12k..

I am noticing new highs hitting on these speculative oil, gas, commodity exploration companies.

To me many of these are pure hype and maybe no substance but we need to find a few of these and try to run with them.

PDO
ROYL
MXC

There are more I need to run a scan this weekend.

Gunners,

Funny..

The RIG part of DRYS is currently receiving zero market cap to the stock. Check out 2009-2011 for the spinoff, the numbers are huge for the revenues and cash flow. It is enough reason for me to never sell DRYS and wait for that spinoff.

Gunners,

That move up didnt last long, might have been a bigger investor chasing and now it is retracing.

i know some of you guys are playing financials...just got this note from a friend of a friend who looks at distressed loan portfolios in Cali

"[XXXX] you're welcome for the heads up on CPF. They have an under the radar loan portfolio out in the market and it's horrible. Bids are coming in at 20-30 cents on the loan dollar. I believe the portfolio started at around $300 million and the true value is down arounfd $50 million. A lot of there loans were with Epre Land Company which filed bankruptcy a few weeks ago and most of those loans have zero value now. So they're faced with a couple hundred million dollar loss at some point in the near term.

By the way, IndyMac bank is having problems closing any of the origintal transactions from their discounted note sale and they have so many new non-performing loans that they are going to come out to the market with a 2nd discounted loan portfolio sale.

I would start getting short the following banks next...Wachovia, Wells Fargo, Guaranty Bank and JP Morgan. The worst bank out there is a regional bank called County Bank, but I don't think you can short them because their market cap is only like $50 million. Unfortunately for them their residential construction loan portfolio is over $100 million and I've seen every deal they have and none are worth more than $ 2 million. So in aggregate they're loooking at close to a $90 million loss."

also - if any of you watch the options markets, maybe explaining the SD Sept 80 call volume would be helpful

seems way out of the norm

Interesting action on those calls.

I would like to see WHEN they were bought/sold, to determine if they were opening or closing trades or sold as covered calls etc.

i wish i knew wall...someone told me about it yesterday afternoon
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for today:

-quadruple witch
-isreal/iran
-oil, election

should be fun

this time in the market reminds me of 02 into 03 where you could short anything almost every day and if it went up, you could double down b/c it was always coming in

the more i learn about the potential of coal the more i think KOL (a market vector coal etf) is a very smart 12-18 month long

 KOAJ:

Interesting stuff. From my reading I felt that Wells Fargo was by far the best managed bank, so I will definitely look into that comment on them.

 As for coal, as a person long on coal and oil and gas, I think the only real downside to it is the prospect of a Democratic administration. (Of course, they will make certain that oil and gas drilling will remain limited as well.)

 I am sure you already have considered that prospect, however. The idea that the world can suddenly switch to "clean energy"  remains one of the more ludicrous fantasies around...

  SKF rocking again...



 

I am sure you already have considered that prospect, however. The idea that the world can suddenly switch to "clean energy"  remains one of the more ludicrous fantasies around...
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im blown away that that is the energy policy of the left...its a 10 year pipe dream at best

then i realize that part of their policy is to demonize big oil...which is also ridiculous

im thinking i should be buying RJN and KOL (the commodity over the company) and trying to find a pure steel play as well

my experience is that the only bank that has absolutely zero exposure to any of the crap is HCBK

the rest all do...their stock price is reflective of how well or how bad they've hidden the skeletons

anyone who tells you to start getting long financials is falling into a value trap and trying to drag you with them

KOAJ

You and I are on the same page in a lot of ways. The one thing that is a concern for steel companies is the cost of making it.

 I have not considered, nor really seen anyone on TV advocate buying financials. Even the guys most optimistic, who periodically declare the worst is over, always back off when asked if they are telling people to go long financials. There are a shitload of resets still to come.
 

from time to time i see them called "value" plays which basically means, the same company that was at 80 is now at 40 so its a value down here

bull shit...theres a fundamental reason things go up and down on top of the greed and fear aspect

banks, homebuilders, construction materials...all value plays. enjoy

you can add to that list anyone who doesnt know how to hedge the price of fuel correctly or will not be able to pass the cost onto consumers...airlines, truckers, shippers (fdx, ups)

UAL is a value play here

Yeah, and Bear was a "value play" when it was at 25...LMAO...

 By the way, anyone who believes anything the Saudis have to say about their reserves, increasing or decreasing production, etc etc is a complete naif.

  CC:

  The Obama solution to energy is .....ethanol...gee, let me put on my big surprise face.

Look at the front page of the online NY Times today...

Obama is a typical Chicago pol, who pretends he is not playing "politics as usual."  Pols are hilarious, the greatest free circus (and freak show) in the world.

 A collection of freaks reminiscent of the Borgia Papacy, or the rot of the late Roman Empire.





 

I need to find more stocks like this-

FSYS

Almost a 4 bagger since April and they really have nothing to do with alternative energy solutions.

Back when oil broke out over 80, little guys like this stock started to move and fortunes were made.

Another gap breaker that I keep seeing run every single day is our good old ENER. Since that gap on May 7th it has been a double..they moved it up, consolidated the move and back up it went.