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June Stock Talk III

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Posted: #1
Just starting another thread...again, the Marc Faber quoted was NOT the CNBC guy...
 
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Posted: #2
The man quoted (I think I may start quoting without attribution!!!) is and has been relatively famous since the 70s...

Faber was born in Zurich and schooled in Geneva, Switzerland. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a Ph.D. in Economics magna juice laude[1]. Faber resides in Thailand and is best known for the Gloom Boom Doom newsletter and web site featuring "Dance of Death" paintings created by Kaspar Meglinger.

During the 1970s Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York City, Zürich, and Hong Kong. He moved to Hong Kong in 1973. He was a managing director at Drexel Burnham Lambert Ltd Hong Kong from the beginning of 1978 until the firm's collapse in 1990. In 1990, he set up his own business, Marc Faber Limited. Faber now resides in Thailand, though he keeps a small office in Hong Kong.

Faber has gained a reputation as a contrarian investor. He has become a frequent speaker on various TV programs and forums in recent years. He is very bearish on the long-term outlook for the U.S dollar because he believes that the excessive money supply by Fed is inflationary and detrimental to the currency's value. He is very bullish on the long-term outlook for commodities.




 
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Posted: #3
Is Maria Bartiromo going to interview this guy?
 
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Posted: #4

 LOL if they can find him in a Bangkok massage parlor perhaps...

 
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Posted: #5
Vermeer,

Yep..you are right. Even if the content was legit and it came from CNBC I wouldnt listen to it.

Not saying Faber is the same guy because he is not of course, but the point of CNBC being a square tv station is why I dont watch or even care what they say.

On CNBC the guys name is David Faber too..haha

I think Maria might be a guy...yikes!


 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Vermeer,


I think Maria might be a guy...yikes!

 

Yeah, I have seen her rip some people's balls off before on the interview, so she "ain't skeerit."  But she has a price, and she let Mozillo totally slide last August.  That was abominable, but GE is always going to be her daddy, no matter how mean and tough she acts at times.

 
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Posted: #7

CNBC is a tout service, a stock booster, and that's about it.And yeah that guy is named David, you are right, I forgot.

 Anyway...as far as Maria goes, she does resemble a transvestite stripper I once saw working on Bourbon street.(Used to be a game we played:stand outside a transvestite stripper bar, and see how long it would take drunk Oklahoma or Nebraska fans to realiize they had been getting hot over a man!! You shoulda seen some of those guys barrelassing out of the place, no doubt having a gender identity  meltdown....very very funny to watch...)

I note DRYS has made a move up, I presume a result of the recent presentation...


 
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Posted: #8
But she's as crooked and corrupt as all of 'em on "The Street."
 
I used to watch that stupid channel back in mid 90s when it was still "avant garde."  Maria Bartiromo had this gig where she'd report from the floor of the NYSE and give all the upgrades/downgrades in execution style manner.  I noticed, like anyone else who paid any attention, that she would really emphasize certain things more than others and really pour on the drama.  The I found out her boyfriend was some big time investment guy from some crime syndicate house...........
 
She was basically touting his positions.
 
It was so obvious, and maybe that is why she got moved to just being a bulldog and doing hard interviews.
 
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Posted: #9
Funny story, Vermeer.  And as you get older, you just laugh about all that crap, realizing that sex is nothing more than an act designed to release tension/pressure.
 
I heard this once..........
 
Love is manipulation at its finest.
 
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
 
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Posted: #10

 Well, those Sugar Bowl fans would get so lit up, you knew they did not notice they had accidentally piled into the place...only a matter of time until they saw the disconcerting bulge in the bikini briefs...and then they hauled outta there like their ass was on fire. We had an over/ under bet going for each crowd...



 
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Posted: #11
Funny...when i was on the sell side (broker) I used to think CNBC was great..even though I hated their constant babbling about "THE MOTHER SHIP", but now that I am not connected to the machine I really dislike the channel.

I saw on some photo that Bloomberg hired a crony from CBNC..I forget but was it that Dillion guy or one of them? I might not like Bloomy anymore if that is the case.

DRYS had another great presentation. I read that George said the BDI dropped big because a few ship owners swapped vessels at some severely low numbers, he thought it was an intentional ploy to lower the index and some small hands got scared and sold..so he thinks it was a temporary blip.

Also, DRYS currently valued at about 40% breakup on assets, meaning the value of the fleet and the drillships/OR business.

I wont be selling DRYS any time soon I can tell you that.
 
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Posted: #12
Yeah, WSC, I saw that DRYS symbol you like was up on a gap like 7 points.  Hope you're well in the money on it.  And yeah, let it ride if you are.........don't do like I did last year and bail out of FSLR.
 
As far as the broad market (SP 500) today, expiration week is in full force.  Although the moves will be sharp and vicious as positions are unwound, the expiration will put a floor/celing on the whole deal.
 
That being said, this would be the perfect week for financials to confess, cause their downside risk would be reduced due to all the expiration circus.
 
That's the way it's going today, and probably for the rest of the week:
 
Severe moves in a range.  Impossible to trade unless you got inside info on when things are going to be taken off.
 
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Posted: #13

 I would be interested in what you guys think of this essay by Faber (note the date, not a current article). And while considering the source is legit, I just wonder what you think on the merits of his argument...

https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/investment-booms/2007/03/08/

 
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Posted: #14

 PS

 I was going to double my position in DRYS if it hit 70...I am not selling and like I say intend to buy more if it dips from current levels.A P/E of around 5 is something that draws my serious interest...like I said, the numbers are too compelling for me to dump the stock.



 
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Posted: #15
I agree with David Faber, CNBC or not.  He's right that the world outlook for the future should be totally bearish.
 
Certainly in the USA, there is no infrastructure outside HUGE CITIES that supports public transportation.  But that doesn't get to everything cause groceries and good still have to be transported (soaring diesel), whether you live in city or not.
 
I can tell you this.....and I'm not joking one bit.  I DO NOT drive unless I am going to work, or that it is absolutely essential that I do drive.  I get all my errands and crap done once a month on the way home from work.  On account of soaring gas and soaring groceries and soaring anything that is transported, I DO NOT spend money unless it is absolutely necessary.  No games, no movies, no dinners, no anything.  Now, how the hell can an ecomomy survive when its consumers just don't do anything that costs money?
 
Right, the economy slows to a halt, people lose jobs, and everything goes to hell.
 
Couple that with an eroding currency, and you have the ingredients for a total depression......just like the early 30s.
 
WE ARE F----ED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
So yeah, I agree with David Faber.
 
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Posted: #16
Anyone who is currently investing in the US stock market for "the long term" may want to re-think this disposition.
 
 
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Posted: #17

CC,

 That is MARC FABER, kind of another version of Jimmy Rogers, and he has no connection to CNBC.

 Anyway, he and Rogers are singing the same song essentially...

 The Fed has debased the currency to such an extent over the years that it is only logical they have created the groundwork for the current stagflation, and of course it exacerbates the price of dollar denominated assets such as oil.

  The US economy is in dire shape, no doubt.On a macro level, I simply think there are too many people for fewer and fewer jobs, a side effect of tremendous gains in productivity due to better technology.

 The question is, how to devise an economic policy around the idea that human labor is very likely to be less and less needed as the century goes on...and there is a limit to how many people can be lawyers, doctors and other well compensated professionals.

 
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Posted: #18
Yeah, I lost some of the talk in the threads.  Yeah, David Faber from CNBC didn't write that piece you posted.  I just assumed it was the same guy from CNBC.
 
I am caught up.  Yes, Marc Faber from Australia.
 
I used to laugh at Jimmy Rogers cause he always says the same thing:
 
"US stock market is due for a whupping." 
"Then there'll be a rally, cause there always is one."
"I am Bullish on commodities."
"The central bank always gets it wrong"----agreed with him there.
 
Well, back in 90s, Rogers was dead wrong, and last I checked, still won't admit it.  Yeah, he's dead on the money right now.
 
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Posted: #19
Jimmy Rogers is very smart.....no doubt.
 
But, like many with brains and money, he is a total egomaniac.  The bow-tie is just a money making gig to try to appeal to "Joe Everyman."
 
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Posted: #20
This sucks today.
 
No way in hell  to trade expiration week today in SPY.....flat out impossible.
 
Need to gamble, though.  Thank God for the college world series.
 
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Posted: #21
The entire board is piling on LSU vs Rice in 10 minutes.  Wanted LSU, too, but now they're doomed.
 
Will bet Euro 2008 and take France over Italy.
 
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Posted: #22
Not touching baseball..

Ive listened to Jimmy Rogers for years..longer than I can remember..always the bow tie.

I respect him even though he was 100% wrong and lost money on his views for MANY years. He saw things like I did and I think why he was wrong for so long is that the Federal Reserve staved off the pain for probably 4-6 yrs with their monetary policy. So he wasnt wrong in philosophy, rather it was delayed due to their actions.
 
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Posted: #23
WSC-
 
Yes, the monetary policy delayed the inevitable, but JR was "wrong" cause he lost money by shorting the US stock market in the 90s.
 
Yeah, look at today......FSLR is overvalued at 120 times earnings, but the market is never wrong, so it goes up today and I lose money........so I am wrong.
 
Rogers is smart, and he was smart back in 90s when he was wrong about the direction of the US stock market.
 
I'd like to listen to him today out of sheer entertainment value cause I am sure he is having an absolute field day bashing Bernanke and laughing at the US stock market.
 
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Posted: #24
Well that issue is the point I am making about FSLR.

Often times people who feel they are right dont respect the markets and make moves when the markets are telling them different.

So Rogers was betting against the market trying to guess a top and not waiting for breakdown signs and technical indicators saying it was the right time.

Also, I hope he used good stops because he could be wrong for a long time in the LONG term but still profit off small moves if he used stops.

An example would be FSLR..it dropped from 280 to 165, from 228 to 176, from 311 to 242 or so. The down moves have been there but the chart and underlying momentum would kill you just shorting and holding.


 
 
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Posted: #25
Yeah, I see FSLR closed 282ish.........HUGE SELL OFF the last 1.5 hours, and I was drunk losing money on a soccer game.
 
Did the right thing, though.
 
No doubt in my mind......if I had held the short, it'd have closed 290ish..........no question about it.
 
Quite strange that I pretty much determine the direction of the world stock markets........if I could only get them to agree with me rather than disagree.
 
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