March Stock Talk I

Shorts sure are selling this rally fast.

Seeing many new lows flashing up quite early.

I bet they take it to up under 100 or worse.

Anyone seeing BSC?

They propped it up 6 pts now it is getting killed again.

How could those rumors be true?

CRDC finally caught up to the market today.  i bought a little at $5.85.  Starting to be a kind of large position of mine. 

 I agree CC. This is an opportunity to get out and observe.I remain in TWM and continue to look closely at SKF after being stopped out again yesterday. Taking the profits and watching...
No point in coming out of the shelter when the bombs are still dropping, and they will continue to drop.

I havent been saying much lately because there hasnt been much to say honestly.

The market is in tear-down mode and i am not sure where we go or how long it lasts.

I am quite pissed off at myself for not being on the sidelines after saying this would happen for 2 yrs..

 Wall,

 I too have been burned in minor ways by it.The recent setbacks to my portfolio have been offset a great deal by riding the SKF elevator, and certainly GLD and other metals.(platinum is truly amazing).
 
 The old (and even new) tricks of the Fed are not going to revive this market, as the recent action has demonstrated.Couple enormous losses with a political year that is going to guarantee further fiscal madness, and all I can say is, shorting the US market, the USD, etc will continue to be the play in this bear market.

 We are seeing a confluence of events that is seriously destructive. Decades of foolish political and economic decisions are coming home to roost, and wh

oops:

 to continue,

who here can honestly say to themselves that Congress and any pol we are going to elect to the presidency can rectify the misguided policies of the past decades?

I dont see a candidate who I have confidence in at all, but that doesnt mean things are going to 7k like I mentioned to a friend not long ago.

At the time when Clinton came into office, things were dicey and he ended up doing ok for the economy and markets, I can hope we get lucky with whomever comes in this time too.

I don't share your optimism Wall and frankly am betting in the opposite direction.I do not think the people who got us into this are capable of getting us out of it.(And that means, Democrats and Republicans.)

A funny commentary from a gold bug :

What is occurring is THE MONETIZATION OF BANKRUPTCY.

The predictable result of monetizing bankruptcy is a significant increase in inflation and a sharply lower dollar.

The result of a sharply lower dollar is sharply higher gold regardless of the dress up process being applied to the US dollar and gold today. The dress up is to prevent a stinging rebuff for the Federal Reserve paying a FARCE price for bankrupt derivative packages purely to keep the banks that are almost all on the edge solvent.

This action speaks negatively for 30 year US Treasury bonds.

What needs to be understood is that there are more than $20 trillion dollars worth of credit and default derivatives out there.

The next key point is that nominal value of this over $20 trillion of credit and default derivatives becomes full value when the derivative fails to perform.

This comes on a modest capital injection into a bond guarantee company that facilitates pinning a tin AAA debt rating heart on them; something that is a total fallacy.

The problem at the heart of the deteriorating credit lockup situation is OTC credit and default derivatives that have failed to perform.

The inviting conclusion then is that $200 billion is as pimple on the ass of an elephant.

Yesterday i was on a road trip and had XM on and I heard a blip from Jimmy Rogers, it was like I was the one being interviewed..he said everything that I have been regarding the FED and recession and the damage they are doing by deflating the currency.

 Does anyone have a solid source for the dollar amount of the entire worldwide derivative markets? I have heard so many conflicting things I am dizzy.One person I heard quoted 500 trillion dollars total, and I believe the world's GDP is around 55 trillion dollars in 2007 (world bank figure? Not sure where I got that estimate.

  If, and I do not know that the 500 trillion number is correct, one percent of those derivatives turn out to be worthless, we will have seen the disappearance of an entire year's GDP for the world.

 Anyone have a reliable source for the derivatives number? I seem to have seen wildly different estimates of the total. Set me straight if you can.If I can find it, I will post it here.

 

 OK, I think I heard the comment correctly. Bill Gross is a reliable source, I suppose.Correct me if wrong...:

According to Bill Gross, a fixed income market guru, the size of the credit default swap market is "$43 trillion, more that half the size of the entire asset base of the global banking system." If that is not scary enough he goes on to tell is that "total derivatives amount to over $500 trillion, many of them finding their way"......................well, everywhere.

Well markets are all over the place and over 100 pts below the highs before the announcement.

Not sure what they were expecting, it is almost as if a 50 or a 25 cut would have moved them better than a 75 or 100.

I also see that the dog BCON is below a buck again, it will be worth buying if it goes to 60 cents or so.

Wow..

My Scottrade high/low tool is FLYING..market getting killed again.

Market giving it right back on no news that I see?

Nice job Gunners..

The problem is you better not be on margin..it could take a while before you get it right.

MON and MOS are like FSLR, we know they are overvalued but who knows how long they STAY overvalued?  

Wall,

I don't have any margin accounts.  The only way I short things is by going long inverse ETFs or by buying puts. 

Wow..

Down 250 and the wheels are spinning like a casino on my Scottrade acct.

Gains are erased and created in one day in both directions.

  I think anyone who even casually follows the markets might see through the Fed's actions by now. And perhaps even be so cynical as to overestimate their probability of failure.

  That the markets are being heavily manipulated and artificially propped up is pretty obvious to even the the least informed.

 How many people really feel good about the economy? How many people are chomping at the bit to bu a house? Or a stock?

  I think the psychological damage of the meltdown is far greater than the psychological impact of the Fed's flailing efforts.

Bear gets a better offer, how shocking and the stock trading 3 bucks over the offer.

Fair value even in a tight market is over 20, in an improving market for derivitives you double that to 40 plus.

Nice Naz rally today, first day in a long time that the NAZ hasnt trailed in a rally.

Plenty more to go especially with the high short level in that market segment.