Holding calls on Exm and TBSI. TBSI may 55's and Exm JUne 55's. HOpe tommorow is another good day for the Bulk shippers. Almost sold my may 55's today which was a 6 bagger today. . Gonna sell em tommorow hopefully into strength and buy some june calls on tbsi.
Exm earnings on Monday.. Big runup. Gotta be excellent numbers. If the numbers are good and the stock sells off, I'll add to my position.
Holding calls on Exm and TBSI. TBSI may 55's and Exm JUne 55's. HOpe tommorow is another good day for the Bulk shippers. Almost sold my may 55's today which was a 6 bagger today. . Gonna sell em tommorow hopefully into strength and buy some june calls on tbsi.
Exm earnings on Monday.. Big runup. Gotta be excellent numbers. If the numbers are good and the stock sells off, I'll add to my position.
Something tells me they sell off..all 3 have been up huge, DRYS and EXM of course I watch more.
Why did you go so far up on those calls? For those stocks being up 15 pts in a month and you are almost square on the strike, what is going on there?
RIO is wacky..how about the run in ENER?
I will buy a realistic dip in DRYS, knowing what I do, I cannot own EXM or TBSI or DSX. Most other public bulkers have locked in rates for most of their fleets and will NOT benefit on the move in rates like DRYS will this year, plus the investments made lately will pay off for years for DRYS.
Yeah I know I prefer DRYS but I cannot own the others, they have locked in lousy rates and are missing out on this monster BDI move.
Jeff,
DRYS earnings on Monday too.
Something tells me they sell off..all 3 have been up huge, DRYS and EXM of course I watch more.
Why did you go so far up on those calls? For those stocks being up 15 pts in a month and you are almost square on the strike, what is going on there?
RIO is wacky..how about the run in ENER?
I will buy a realistic dip in DRYS, knowing what I do, I cannot own EXM or TBSI or DSX. Most other public bulkers have locked in rates for most of their fleets and will NOT benefit on the move in rates like DRYS will this year, plus the investments made lately will pay off for years for DRYS.
Yeah I know I prefer DRYS but I cannot own the others, they have locked in lousy rates and are missing out on this monster BDI move.
They have lots of vessels on order and some BRUTAL charter rates..locked in for a long time which means they wont participate in the BDI move compared to a stock like Golden Oceans
Drys of course is my favorite but it is riskier..
NMM and NM are less riskier plays and if I was trying to take a less risky approach I would probably with DSX or EXM, but none of the long term charter stocks will benefit like DRYS, and conversely if the BDI comes in, DRYS will come in stronger and harder.
Vermeer,
Not sure if you have seen this-
NMM
Check out the fleet on Navios-
Fleet
They have lots of vessels on order and some BRUTAL charter rates..locked in for a long time which means they wont participate in the BDI move compared to a stock like Golden Oceans
Drys of course is my favorite but it is riskier..
NMM and NM are less riskier plays and if I was trying to take a less risky approach I would probably with DSX or EXM, but none of the long term charter stocks will benefit like DRYS, and conversely if the BDI comes in, DRYS will come in stronger and harder.
First, thanks Wall for the links and info as usual, excellent stuff.
I retain 50% of original buy in DRYS, (sold programmatically when it hit 100), and while I thought I should just re buy DRYS, I was looking at a completely unrelated program and that symbol popped up, which I was going to skip until I noticed it was a shipper.
At what point P/E would you think DRYS fully valued? It is at 8 now which still makes me scratch my head...
First, thanks Wall for the links and info as usual, excellent stuff.
I retain 50% of original buy in DRYS, (sold programmatically when it hit 100), and while I thought I should just re buy DRYS, I was looking at a completely unrelated program and that symbol popped up, which I was going to skip until I noticed it was a shipper.
At what point P/E would you think DRYS fully valued? It is at 8 now which still makes me scratch my head...
Earlier in the week, while conceding that there was clear evidence of central bank intervention in the currency markets,
I dismissed intervention in the stock markets as fanciful.
Now I am not so sure.
There are no signs of anything untoward on the Dow, apart from the index rising on suspiciously low volumes.
However, there are clear signs of co-ordinated support on the FTSE 100 — while volumes, again, are unusually low.
The market normally has a pulse, ebbing and flowing every few days, even when in a narrow consolidation.
From April 21, the pulse disappeared, with the index flat-lining at fixed levels of 6050, then 6090, then 6200.
That is a decidedly odd pattern for a market index and is normally encountered in currency or treasury markets
when there is central bank intervention.
None of this is hard evidence, but it is suspicious.
If true, one thing you can be sure of is that the purpose is not to protect the small investor
— but to save the financial sector from their excesses.
Short-term traders would welcome any such intervention:
they basically get a free ride for as long as the safety net is in place.
The problem is: how far will the market correct when the safety net is removed?
Long-term investors should bear in mind that current activity is most likely a continuation of the market top,
rather than commencement of a new bull market.
We often read of the efficient market theory, where price reflects all information available to market participants.
At times I get the feeling that the market is driven more by the collective interest of participants than by information.
Supporters of the theory may find it difficult to explain what drove the Dow to a new high in October 2007,
two months after the break of the sub-prime crisis — when the fear index (below) had spiked into the red zone (above 1.0%).
I have been wondering about this a bit myself...
Earlier in the week, while conceding that there was clear evidence of central bank intervention in the currency markets,
I dismissed intervention in the stock markets as fanciful.
Now I am not so sure.
There are no signs of anything untoward on the Dow, apart from the index rising on suspiciously low volumes.
However, there are clear signs of co-ordinated support on the FTSE 100 — while volumes, again, are unusually low.
The market normally has a pulse, ebbing and flowing every few days, even when in a narrow consolidation.
From April 21, the pulse disappeared, with the index flat-lining at fixed levels of 6050, then 6090, then 6200.
That is a decidedly odd pattern for a market index and is normally encountered in currency or treasury markets
when there is central bank intervention.
None of this is hard evidence, but it is suspicious.
If true, one thing you can be sure of is that the purpose is not to protect the small investor
— but to save the financial sector from their excesses.
Short-term traders would welcome any such intervention:
they basically get a free ride for as long as the safety net is in place.
The problem is: how far will the market correct when the safety net is removed?
Long-term investors should bear in mind that current activity is most likely a continuation of the market top,
rather than commencement of a new bull market.
We often read of the efficient market theory, where price reflects all information available to market participants.
At times I get the feeling that the market is driven more by the collective interest of participants than by information.
Supporters of the theory may find it difficult to explain what drove the Dow to a new high in October 2007,
two months after the break of the sub-prime crisis — when the fear index (below) had spiked into the red zone (above 1.0%).
The earthquake that rocked China has pushed already-soaring dry bulk
shipping rates higher on speculation that the disaster will fuel
demand.
As the production of commodities and the ability to transport them
from the affected areas to the Chinese coast is impacted by the
earthquake, seaside areas will need more imports since they won’t be
able to rely on domestic supplies to satisfy demand. In the near term,
this is what’s pushing up shipping rates, said Jefferies analyst
Douglas Mavrinac.
In the longer term, the rebuilding efforts in the affected areas
will require construction materials that will need to be shipped in,
which will push rates even higher, added Mavrinac.
“This adds a little tightness to an already tight market,” Mavrinac said.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Urs Dur said China is certainly going
to have more infrastructure issues going forward. “The Chinese will
probably be reviewing their building regulations and repairing
everything that has been damaged, which will require more cement and
steel,” said Dur. “It’s morbid to think about, but it should be another
support for dry bulk demand over the next 12 months.”
“Before the earthquake, rates on capesize vessels, those too big to
fit through the Panama or Suez canals, had skyrocketed over 70% to
$190,000, up from $110,000, in the prior year.
Recently a number of events have caused rates to soar: iron exports
from Brazil are returning to normal levels after being curtailed in the
first quarter because of price negotiations; Fortescue Metals Group is
ramping up to be a major iron ore
exporter in Australia, which is driving demand for vessels; coal
exports out of Australia and the United States have been rising; and
China has low inventories of coking coal, used to make steel, which
increases the near term demand to move coking coal from South Africa
and Australia for steel production.
And this...from Forbes
The earthquake that rocked China has pushed already-soaring dry bulk
shipping rates higher on speculation that the disaster will fuel
demand.
As the production of commodities and the ability to transport them
from the affected areas to the Chinese coast is impacted by the
earthquake, seaside areas will need more imports since they won’t be
able to rely on domestic supplies to satisfy demand. In the near term,
this is what’s pushing up shipping rates, said Jefferies analyst
Douglas Mavrinac.
In the longer term, the rebuilding efforts in the affected areas
will require construction materials that will need to be shipped in,
which will push rates even higher, added Mavrinac.
“This adds a little tightness to an already tight market,” Mavrinac said.
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Urs Dur said China is certainly going
to have more infrastructure issues going forward. “The Chinese will
probably be reviewing their building regulations and repairing
everything that has been damaged, which will require more cement and
steel,” said Dur. “It’s morbid to think about, but it should be another
support for dry bulk demand over the next 12 months.”
“Before the earthquake, rates on capesize vessels, those too big to
fit through the Panama or Suez canals, had skyrocketed over 70% to
$190,000, up from $110,000, in the prior year.
Recently a number of events have caused rates to soar: iron exports
from Brazil are returning to normal levels after being curtailed in the
first quarter because of price negotiations; Fortescue Metals Group is
ramping up to be a major iron ore
exporter in Australia, which is driving demand for vessels; coal
exports out of Australia and the United States have been rising; and
China has low inventories of coking coal, used to make steel, which
increases the near term demand to move coking coal from South Africa
and Australia for steel production.
Drybulk shippers transport ferry loads of iron ore,
coal and grain, which are in high demand from emerging nations as the
demand for commodities and raw materials soar. Investors have feared
that a slowdown in the U.S. economy would slow down the movement of commodities globally, but that has not been the case .
Meanwhile, after the bell on Wednesday Greek dry bulk shipper Paragon Shipping
(nasdaq:
PRGN -
news
-
people
)
reported first-quarter earnings of $15.8 million, or 59 cents per Class
A share, nearly triple the $5.8 million, or 43 cents a share, a year
earlier. On an operating basis, the company earned 53 cents a share,
far better than analysts' consensus estimates of 43 cents.
“Paragon remains one of the most attractively valued stocks in the
dry bulk universe, even after gains of 30% during the past month,” said
Nokta. “With increased time charter coverage, the company is positioned
to increase its payout ratio in the coming quarters.”
Shares of Paragon, which have been doing well since March, gained just 7 cents, or 0.3%, to $20.77. But DryShips
(nasdaq:
DRYS -
news
-
people
) jumped $7.46, or 7.5%, to $106.50 at the close on Thursday, while Diana Shipping
(nyse:
DSX -
news
-
people
) gained 4.8%, or $1.67, to $36.60. Excel Maritime Carriers
(nyse:
EXM -
news
-
people
) rallied 5.7%, or $2.88, to $53.54.
and..the summary...
Drybulk shippers transport ferry loads of iron ore,
coal and grain, which are in high demand from emerging nations as the
demand for commodities and raw materials soar. Investors have feared
that a slowdown in the U.S. economy would slow down the movement of commodities globally, but that has not been the case .
Meanwhile, after the bell on Wednesday Greek dry bulk shipper Paragon Shipping
(nasdaq:
PRGN -
news
-
people
)
reported first-quarter earnings of $15.8 million, or 59 cents per Class
A share, nearly triple the $5.8 million, or 43 cents a share, a year
earlier. On an operating basis, the company earned 53 cents a share,
far better than analysts' consensus estimates of 43 cents.
“Paragon remains one of the most attractively valued stocks in the
dry bulk universe, even after gains of 30% during the past month,” said
Nokta. “With increased time charter coverage, the company is positioned
to increase its payout ratio in the coming quarters.”
Shares of Paragon, which have been doing well since March, gained just 7 cents, or 0.3%, to $20.77. But DryShips
(nasdaq:
DRYS -
news
-
people
) jumped $7.46, or 7.5%, to $106.50 at the close on Thursday, while Diana Shipping
(nyse:
DSX -
news
-
people
) gained 4.8%, or $1.67, to $36.60. Excel Maritime Carriers
(nyse:
EXM -
news
-
people
) rallied 5.7%, or $2.88, to $53.54.
I saw that piece the other day..and it is probably true, regarding the earth quake and how it will put pressure on the bulk industry and sustain rates or move them higher.
I saw there is a new IPO coming out, Safe Bulkers..trying to get info on it but it has been tough.
You know my opinion..to gain from the move in the BDI you need stocks that are using a spot strategy as many on that later list are locked in at MUCH lower rates and the move higher doesnt mean as much if anything to the valuation since most charters for companies like GNK etc are locked in for 2-5-10 yrs.
Vermeer,
I saw that piece the other day..and it is probably true, regarding the earth quake and how it will put pressure on the bulk industry and sustain rates or move them higher.
I saw there is a new IPO coming out, Safe Bulkers..trying to get info on it but it has been tough.
You know my opinion..to gain from the move in the BDI you need stocks that are using a spot strategy as many on that later list are locked in at MUCH lower rates and the move higher doesnt mean as much if anything to the valuation since most charters for companies like GNK etc are locked in for 2-5-10 yrs.
I like RIO quite a bit..but you are right it has been on a big run. It could be due for a correction but it is at a historic high and it could run another 10 points or more before pulling back.
Tough to trade a stock on a momentum breakout waiting for a pullback.
Jeff,
I like RIO quite a bit..but you are right it has been on a big run. It could be due for a correction but it is at a historic high and it could run another 10 points or more before pulling back.
Tough to trade a stock on a momentum breakout waiting for a pullback.
I got in on EWZ - I shares for various Brazilian stocks, my dad has had shares in it for sometime and it justs continues to grow momentum so I decided to jump on board today at $99.35.
I got in on EWZ - I shares for various Brazilian stocks, my dad has had shares in it for sometime and it justs continues to grow momentum so I decided to jump on board today at $99.35.
Yeah SOLF is running, so is STP, TSL and SPWR etc..
High oil means high prices for solar stocks, not sure I agree with the reasoning.
I cannot believe I got suckered out of not buying SPWR back when a few firms took it down only to buy it back up.
I think DRYS is going to come in soft to be honest, but it doesnt matter, if the street takes it down you have to buy..I think Q1 will be just OK, not fabulous. If it is fab then the stock goes up 15.
Yeah SOLF is running, so is STP, TSL and SPWR etc..
High oil means high prices for solar stocks, not sure I agree with the reasoning.
I cannot believe I got suckered out of not buying SPWR back when a few firms took it down only to buy it back up.
I think DRYS is going to come in soft to be honest, but it doesnt matter, if the street takes it down you have to buy..I think Q1 will be just OK, not fabulous. If it is fab then the stock goes up 15.
Shares of DryShips, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRYS)
nose-dived right around 2pm, after opening about 2% higher and hitting
$116.34 in anticipation of this afternoon's earning report.
On Valentine's day (2008), DryShips reported strong Q4 earnings,
beating the consensus estimate by $0.43. However, you'll get
conflicting suggestions from traders and analysts on whether (or not)
to hold a stock going into an earning report. Shares are now down $5.32
(-4.80%) in the last hour of trading.[SM]
Shares of DryShips, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRYS)
nose-dived right around 2pm, after opening about 2% higher and hitting
$116.34 in anticipation of this afternoon's earning report.
On Valentine's day (2008), DryShips reported strong Q4 earnings,
beating the consensus estimate by $0.43. However, you'll get
conflicting suggestions from traders and analysts on whether (or not)
to hold a stock going into an earning report. Shares are now down $5.32
(-4.80%) in the last hour of trading.[SM]
. Gonna sell em tommorow hopefully into strength and buy some june calls on tbsi. 
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