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May Stock Talk III

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Posted: #26
Yep..

The only stock out there boys..

DRYS, yeah.

I would prefer some Jan 2010 options but geez they are so expensive. I still might go out and up and take a calculated gamble. By 2010 the Rig portion will be spun to shareholders and that should unlock some serious value. I wouldnt be shocked if DRYS was at 200 by Jan 2010.
 
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Posted: #27
Moved up the order since someone was obviously trying to sell some CCs on 5k shares.

Retail order moved the offer to 12.70 for a square 50 contracts..which is a retail or fund selling CCs or maybe trying to block in a spread.

So I got part of my order at 12.70
 
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Posted: #28
Yeah but look at the contracts, you cannot get under 20 without going out to almost 150 strike.

That means the basis is 170, and that is TOO MUCH premium.


 
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Posted: #29
Yeah I did the CC gig when I was a market kiddo. I dont find the value in doing that because you are trapped and all for maybe a 5-10% premium.

Now if I was running a fund and had a monster position or could sell naked I would consider.

As of now I wont allow myself the ability to write naked..
 
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Posted: #30
I must be seeing things.I could swear that is Cramer in Wall's avatar....sheesh, gotta layoff the Thaistick...
 
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Posted: #31
Vermeer,

Yeah I was actually bummed that hardly anyone got the joke.

A few did, and a few thought it was a SERIOUS avatar.

How far from the truth is that? You know how I feel about him.


 
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Posted: #32

I threw a single into the DRYS option along with ya Wall, what the hell...

I really had to do a doubletake there on the avatar Wall...maybe you oughta have a giant X over top of that shot...

 By the way, Thaistick and Thai women...can't go wrong either way.

 
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Posted: #33
I am going to give this avatar a week, then get another good one. It will be a true test to the fellas here in the investments area.


 
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Posted: #34
You got 12.60, better than I did.


 
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Posted: #35
USO flying, US markets falling.


 
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Posted: #36
Cramer is nothing but an entertainer.  I do not, for the life of me, believe anyone takes him seriously about anything.
 
But hell......can't knock him.  He made his money (albeit by lying and cheating-----and he damn sure ain't the only one in the hedge industry who is/was completely morally repugnant........moral repugnancy is a pre-requisite for outlandish success on Wall Street) and now just gets to act like a clown while GenElectric picks up the tab.  Can't say my shithole job is like that. 
 
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Posted: #37
WSC-
 
We're nearing a blow-off top of USO right now.  Hang in for an easy money counter-trade off the inevitable reversal.  Waiting is the hardest part, but I think it's a dead certainty that there is a MAJOR reversal within the next 2 weeks or sooner which will print money hand over fist for a a few days.
 
 
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Posted: #38
I am also 100% sure that that icehole "T Boone Pickens" will be selling to all the dummies piling on in the end........and then laughing all the way to the bank.
 
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Posted: #39
I wont be getting in front of that trade..

It is like shorting FSLR, it is the right trade but the wrong time.

Bot some common DRYS for 104.50 just now..they threw a big market order on and knocked it 30 cents quick.

Option trade looking like horse sh!t already..how shocking.

   




 
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Posted: #40
2-3 months ago, the "little guy" got slaughtered by piling on the gold bandwagon at its top, and now he's buried in red hoping the bullish trend eventually picks back up.
 
Same thing is about to happen with oil.  "Little guy" will get dumped on and will have to wait it out or take the loss.
 
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Posted: #41
WSC-
 
Insanity to mess with DRYS options, man, when you can trade the common.
 
Good luck to you anyway, though.
 
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Posted: #42
I wonder how the little guy is involved in this commodity trade. If nothing else the speculative stocks like that MCX are candidates. I have to think not too many retail clients are buying USO at 107, too expensive.  
 
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Posted: #43
Oh yes they are piling in on USO.  ETFs were made for one reason-----to fcku over "little guy."  Just like ADRs.
 
Easy for the retail investor to buy ETFs and ADRs for his brokerage account, but no one really understands the pricing......therefore, the manipulator can run amok.
 
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Posted: #44
claycourt,

Yeah that is true..but in one account I look for leverage and that account is earmarked for options and more aggressive action.

Thus the share buy today and option buy.


 
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Posted: #45
Yeah but retail kiddos arent buying 100 buck ETFs, at least in my experience. They will buy the penny, BB and speculative stuff, solars (notice SOLF lately) as a way in.

USO will screw small to mid size money/hedge firms..having the 2k to 20k retail investors in that just doesnt fit the profile from when i was a broker..
 
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Posted: #46
Well, WSC, no doubt.....you got bigger balls than I when it comes to trading.
 
My reality is this........I don't understand how a near money option is priced.  I do not know how to factor in momentum for this equation, and I don't think anyone does, really.
 
Yeah, anyone can figure out DITMs, but I figure if I want to go with the deeps, then just buy the damn common.
 
Options is out of my league, man.  And I agree with you on covered writing.....why tie up all that money to make 5% and basically be illiquid?
 
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Posted: #47
WSC-
 
Excellent points as usual, but it is just recently that ETFs have gotten popular.
 
The deal is this, man, and you know it, too.  "Little guy" is getting reamed at the pump every fill up (believe me, I know it from that perspective......I'm just a typical dipshit "little guy," BTW).  "Little guy" gets pissed off and wants to at least "break even" on the whole charade by making up the excess gas cost with maybe some more money in his IRA.  So how does he do this?  Yeah, most retails aren't going to understand the commodity futures and let alone their derivatives, so that isn't an option.  But "little guy" hears all about the USO ETF from TV land, buddies at work, etc....So he jumps on board out of anger more than anything else.
 
And then we all know what happens..................
 
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Posted: #48
Yeah, I noticed SOLF, too.  I got lucky and jumped on board last week for a trade.  I bailed on Monday.  Watched it spike today.....got furious......then came to my senses and realized my sorry ass had better be happy with easy money and move on to something else.
 
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Posted: #49
Yeah my comments are only in regards to retail trading..in my years market wise, the retail kids get screwed in mutual funds and in penny/cheap stocks.

Wow this is getting ugly quick..USO rolling, politicians doing nothing, market falling..

I added some CRDC at 6.62 today..

Option pricing for OTM calls (which I am against of course) is impossible. I am using that buy as a risk play since I sold my other calls and had lots of cash laying around..that would be a small percentage of profits off my Jan 60s sold.

Maybe when oil hits 200 we will start to get worried, then take action and spend 10 yrs implementing policy..  


 
 
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Posted: #50
Nice job on the LEH puts and financial puts, anyone notice that BAC is within sniffing range of a 52 week low?
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