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May the forex be with you...

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Captain
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Posted: #376

Yet to averagfe in either trade...wtf is going on

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #377
buck,

I dont see news..but the USD is heating UP across the board, the Yen is heating up across the board..smells like a USM knock down tomorrow.


 
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Posted: #378
Look at all the US pairs outside the Yen, it is up a ton against the CHF, the CD, the AUD, the EU..every single one.

The last 45 minutes has crushed all counter Yen/US pair.
 
Captain
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Posted: #379

Quote Originally Posted by papageorgio:

I hope the bottom holds here 

Whats the bottom129?

How many lots do you have Pap?Be safe bro

 
Rookie
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Posted: #380
too many lots. i see S3 support @ 130.33ish on the monthly. i cant believe its sold off this hard to open the week. i got 14 lots currently. I think im gonna need to add some funds tomorrow. i hope it doesnt test 129 tonight or else i will get liquidated. 



 
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Posted: #381
papa,

14 lots, even at mini's is too many!

I have 4 is all and I have to go into a trade knowing I might have to run to 10, which I dont see that happening here.

I also hope we dont go to 129, lately the LB moves down early and up into the Europe open, but what happens depends on the market moves, so if Europe goes down or the US goes down then the Lb will keep going down.
 
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Posted: #382
i need the plunge protection aka the bernanke boys team to come in and buy the dow futures. wow down 118 currently with no big news. i guess the big boys got the hell out last week ?? 
 
Captain
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Posted: #383

Yeah thats enough lots....always good to keep tons of free margin..just in case shit like this happens,then again you dont usually see moves in USD pairs the way this pair can move..it looks to have bottomed for now,hope it turns here for all of us ..

I have enough $$ to trade with more lots but id rather have the safety net instead

 
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Posted: #384
yeah i think i got to comfortable with this pair and it moves dramstically so its not the pair to move heavy into. if it doesnt get pushed down hard tonight i will add some funds tomorrow and it will be ok but currently i have way too many for my liking. 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #385
Here is a bit to think about fellas..

My projections if they sell the USM down into the summer, say to the low 9k to high 8ks would be-

Us.Yen= 110
Lb.Us= 1.34 to 1.30 (check a monthly chart)
Lb.Yen= 118-121
Us.CD= 1.25 to 1.30
US.AU= .75
Eu.US= .95 to PAR

Ive seen the EU when it first started going and it was below .90 to the USD, and if the USM gets hit, the EU will lead the trail down more than any other currency.

We have talked about this for a long time that the USD WILL turn and it will outperform, it isnt if but when..
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #386
For me the next add is 130.75 and from there I might start edging it at 125 pips..so 129.50 would follow.

I dont feel a huge short term risk here, and with my average being 133.25 currently, my limit sell will be at 135 which would net 700, which is a fair return for the risk being taken.


 
Captain
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Posted: #387
Its funny watching all this unfold...what if Germans just decide to pull away from the EURO...
 
Captain
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Posted: #388
Pap whats your average in LB/JPY?
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #389
Well the meltdown didnt happen and the USM is higher, and with reasonable averaging I am up nicely on the trade.

Lets see if 135 happens this morning.
 
Captain
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Posted: #390
This is really the only way to trade this market
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #391
Quote Originally Posted by bucknuts:

This is really the only way to trade this market


Well it has worked for us pretty well, that is for sure.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #392
made 57 pips on 14 lots  Ill take it 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #393
Quote Originally Posted by papageorgio:

made 57 pips on 14 lots  Ill take it 


I am very happy that you are out, that is great to hear and glad you made a nice hit on that trade.


 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #394
So are we going to get the good ole down 150 and end up green routine again?


 
Captain
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Posted: #395
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #396
Go figure..


Buy those SPX futures and watch the cash market chase higher.


 
Captain
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Posted: #397

You watching this pair for another buy Wall?

Doesnt look as though there will be anything for at least a few hrs..

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #398
Nah..

I will average down at the next price point which is 200 pips away.

Risk on and this hits 135 easy and quick.

I dont see much out there which is interesting, I am noticing that the AUD is continuing to be weak and defensive.
 
Captain
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Posted: #399

Yesterday was a gravestone doji/evening doji star on dollar index need a bearish engulfing to show up today to confirm a pullback here..

The charts are shaping up for a few trades i hope they look good when i get up in the morning..i was thinking about putting in a buy order for LB/JPY near the lows just to fish and see if i catch something...

 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #400
Well I have my next two in and standing..

The point I find very interesting here is how people in general dont draw the obvious correlation between what really moves the Forex and what does not.

All day today I get these news headings from FXDD that mention the EU has support at XYZ and how the LB is going here and resistance is there..the whole thing is a bunch of crap and is like throwing sh!t at the wall, sometimes it sticks but most often it does not.

The financial markets and politics move the Forex, not resistance and support levels..making money here is having a degree of confidence in the market trend, knowing where it is going in that trend and then picking where the financial markets are going..the rest is riding a wave.

The markets go up, risk is on..markets down, risk is off and the results reflect which pair are risk on and risk off.

Political events can exaggerate this, so can trend as we see with the AUD..it is obvious to me that the underlying thinking is that the FED is closer to raising rates than away from it and the riskiest trades are starting to lose their luster in general..so today the markets rallied and the AUD sorta rallied..50 pips off the bottom, but in the past if the USM rallies almost 200 points, the AUD would have skied higher..not so much today.

Understand the trends and which currency has more weakness than another, get a grip on that and then ride where the financial markets take us inside those parameters.


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