November Stock Talk III

 On options expiration day, why not start another thread.Will be interesting...

gamble - i think you are a bit crazy with the +700 but who knows

the only buyers are those covering shorts

I think Dow trades between 7650 and 7900 and closes around 7800.

1/2 hour in and the rally has no strength

down 7k next week

Citigroup under 4 bucks.  Truly unthinkable.  A 300 billion dollar company down to 20 billion.  One of the largest companies in the world.

C has been gulping cash infusions for 18 months, it is very obvious they havent come to grips with the internal bleeding..no ammt of cash is able to stop the flood.

It sure smells like a take over or sale of a ton of assets is in the works.

can you or anyone else tell me what their assets are valued at?

how about their liabilities?

until anyone can put a number on it, they are a zero...same with anyone else who was involved in the cdo, cds, mortgage game

All I can say is thank God for SKF...

of course there's no way to know the Messiah would name his Treasury Secretary this afternoon

all the traditional financial models are our the window. 
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which means that you are more qualified to be an analyst than most analysts

models are backwards looking, you look forward

These people have been dead on for about 4 years now..

At mid-year, June 30, 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported that Citi's primary banking unit, Citibank NA, held $37.1 trillion in total notional value derivatives, including $3.6 trillion in credit default swaps, which, in recent months, have proven to be the most dangerous category.

In contrast, Wachovia bank, bought out by JP Morgan Chase in a deal brokered by the regulators, had only $4.4 trillion in derivatives, among which $404 billion were in credit default swaps, or only one-ninth the size of Citigroup's.

Thus, whereas it was possible for the authorities to arrange buy-outs for banks like Wachovia and Washington Mutual, there is no buyer big enough in the United States to absorb Citigroup. Nor is it likely that an international consortium of banks would want to squander the precious capital they have left on a sinking titanic the size of Citigroup.

  stay out of the stock market. Do not be lured back in by so-called “bargains" or temporary rallies like Friday's. Our next target for the Dow is 5500, and it could get there very quickly.

And from another doomster who has had the bad luck of being correct as well...

Citibank will probably be the first "too big to fail" bank to fail given the increasing cost of the credit default swaps on it's debt. This failure will come with a twist. The majority of Citibank's deposits are contained overseas and thus not covered under the FDIC's revised insured limit of $250,000 USD. This will probably come as a surprise to Citibank's depositors, who overnight will morph into Citibank's creditors.

. But I'm on the lookout for the coming day when both the stock and bond markets head down together. That's when we know that the Great Bond Collapse of 2009 will be underway.

Hey Vermeer do you have a link for this Citi info?  I'd like to read more about it

should be a rather interesting week, despite the holiday.  looks like govt going to inject capital into Citi.  futures up a bit, but i think the news is not good for the market in general (largest bank in the US still having problems)

CC,

I dont get why people are mad at this..do we want our financial system to fail, people to lose their jobs, chaos and destruction to prove a point?

I say no..and unfortunately these banks/firms got into a pickle and it serves a much greater good to not allow some to fail than to allow it to happen for principal.  

wall - i dont think CCL wants failure...just wants everyone to deleverage and be normal banks and make their stupid spread on all of their deposits. thats how i want it

Well we both know that cannot happen with an illiquid CDO and CS market, these guys took a gamble which failed and until the system turns on again these toxic assets will keep polluting these companies.

I havent read the fine print but I sure hope that the government make out like a bandit for doing this..its the only reason this is ok, outside keeping the system working and people having jobs.