SKF @ 91?

 I try to never argue with the market.However, I never argue with facts either. And I do not see fundamental reasons for a recovery at this time.

 I make a distinction between markets and the economy however.

 Markets can and are manipulated all the time, for certain moments (moments being used loosely:the manipulation can last for years, ala the last Greenspan bubble). But eventually markets too have to bend to reality.

  I pick and choose. GS has been quite profitable the past 6 months.SKF was a very, very profitable thing for me for quite some time. I  anticipate it will be again, but I have no plans on adding to my position in it, and logically the financials have been so beat up they have to stage a modest recovery. But it will be temporary, in my opinion.

  Ben Bernanke, like a lot of generals, is fighting the last war. Given a different set of circumstances his policies might truly work.But there is nothing that is going to prevent the demise of the US empire, an empire built on debt and military overreach. The ultimate, definitive winner in this melt down is China, and on both fronts by the way, economically and militarily.They are going to seriously profit without having to exert too much energy:they will gladly buy our coal (that the twits in the Democratic Party demonize) at rock bottom prices.They will also continue as they have been, locking up very critical supplies of basic materials and petroleum, also at bargain prices.
 
 What have we done? Made GS safe, very safe. We are trying to reinflate a housing bubble, and my reading of history indicates bubbles should not be reinfalted, even should they be able to be.

  So we will see. Credit card lines are being radically cut, and frankly, only fools think their houses were accurately priced in 2005.
Commercial real estate is doing a swan dive, and we all know the market for cars is pathetic.

  We may have saved the banking system, we have hardly saved the consumer.And alas, that consumer, and his idiotic penchant for overpriced crap is 70% of our economy.
 

 

 

 

A few numbers to contemplate...from the editorial by the economist Hernando de Soto


The Securities and Exchange Commission estimates that derivative paper is worth $596 trillion (10 times the value of total world production), while studies at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, conclude that it could be twice as much -- $1.2 quadrillion. And exactly how many of those derivatives are actually nonperforming and would have to be surgically removed to stop their toxicity from spreading and destroying trust among creditors and investors? Nobody knows that for sure either. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has set aside $1 trillion to assist in buying those toxic assets, but the SEC has guesstimated that there might be upward of $3 trillion worth.

Consider that a mere 7% default on subprime paper -- equivalent to maybe $1 trillion or $2 trillion -- quickly contaminated other paper, creating a $50-trillion hole in the U.S. economy from losses in stocks, home values and revenues in less than one year.

PS

 SKF at 59, preparing myself to scratch you $21...

bull v. bear

fas 9.92
faz 6.30

i got 500 shares of fas should i

1.  leave it along
2.  take a profit
3.  sell it and buy faz

I wouldn't hold too long . . . over time the value of both of these erode.

Take a look at where both of these were in February . . . and now.  Look at the value eroding away.  These are scam for long term holds . . . good for short term plays but not to hold too long.

No sense fighting the tape-----momentum to the upside, and the little guy is starting to join the party.

I'd give this fake, bear market rally 2 more weeks--possibly 6 more 'til June expiration, then the big boys will sell it down and John Q Public will once again take it up the wazoo.

time decay, i wonder how much the average joe knows about it.  And the volume on some of these 2x 3x products is INSANE.

they are all zeros

but they buy new puts every month so time decay means nothing on these double shorts

when the VIX spikes, the premiums on these things go up and that effects the price more than anything