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SKF @ 91?

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Posted: #26
 CC

 The market may want something, but does not have the capacity to overrule reality but for so long.And the essential reality is like you say, no the banking crisis is not done, far from it.And on that basis, SKF will remain an interesting and volatile play for some time.

 
 
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Posted: #27
Oh yeah, "the market" always eventually gets rational, but when?
 
I'll make a puccy gentleman's wager with you right here, right now, Vermeer.
 
Where is SKF today?  Have no idea, but with a Dow -300ish day, I'll guess 120ish?
 
Here is the wager....SKF hits 50 before it hits 200?  How much you want to wager?
 
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Posted: #28
You know, Vermeer, humans are just so fckued up....it's the way the system is set up cause there is not one single criterion that needs to be met before procreation----how fabulous!!!!!
 
"The almighty market" is really only rational for a very short time---the short stopping point when it is going from extreme fear to extreme greed, and vice versa.
 
Hell, man, if you ask me the "Dow" should be about 6 when you figure the absolute hell to pay down the road cause of all this farking bailout nonsense, but BIG MONEY won't allow it-----just like Vegas won't allow the public play to win the bet.  Same deal.
 
Not fighting BIG MONEY here---am buying on dips and selling on rallies.  Trading only-----trust nothing or no one to tell the truth at the NYSE liar's poker table.  Everything I hear and read is a lie.
 
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Posted: #29
For whatever it's worth, I covered some of my $100 SKF today with some UYG at $2.35.  So I'm holding both, with a slight over weight in UYG.  Who the hell knows where this market is, or should be heading, but I split the 8's and taking my chances.
 
Cheers all.
 
 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Gridophiles:

For whatever it's worth, I covered some of my $100 SKF today with some UYG at $2.35.  So I'm holding both, with a slight over weight in UYG.  Who the hell knows where this market is, or should be heading, but I split the 8's and taking my chances.
 
Cheers all.
 
 

Not sure I understand this move.  I would be interested to see what others who understand these 200% volatility ETF's better than I do think, but based on the trading pattern of these ETF's,isn't this just about the worst thing you could do?  Wouldn't it make more sense to just hold neither than a double long and a double short?   

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Oh yeah, "the market" always eventually gets rational, but when?
 
I'll make a puccy gentleman's wager with you right here, right now, Vermeer.
 
Where is SKF today?  Have no idea, but with a Dow -300ish day, I'll guess 120ish?
 
Here is the wager....SKF hits 50 before it hits 200?  How much you want to wager?


  A bottle of something I can afford if you win? What do you drink?

 I'd rather the over under be 40/175

 
 
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Posted: #32
OK----I see it closed like 110, so we'll go 60 each way.
 
50/170.
 
Smirnoff Vodka is my deal (1.75 liters, 80 proof)----but rather than send the bottle via mail, cash is fine.  Costs (for now) about 21 bucks after taxes------case of 6 costs my sorry ass 125 and change every 6 weeks.
 
Markets are always irrational.  If they weren't, and people woke up and realized the horrors of today's world, then most would off themselves immediately------the only ones who wouldn't don't for family/personal reasons.  This whole charade of a world is just that----one big charade.
 
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Posted: #33
OK,

 Its a deal.Not not one I think I will win necessarily, as manipulation is all in the hands of people who would rather be on your side rather han mine, but heck you are on...
 
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Posted: #34
OK, Vermeer, "it's on!"
 
I got 50, you got 170.  If you win, I'll send you the same amount of cash you send me if I win.
 
Time will tell, as it always does.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #35

 OK no problem...I will write the check...you are off to a good start...it promises to be an interesting quarter.

 You do take Indy Mac paper right?

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Wake2002:

Not sure I understand this move.  I would be interested to see what others who understand these 200% volatility ETF's better than I do think, but based on the trading pattern of these ETF's,isn't this just about the worst thing you could do?  Wouldn't it make more sense to just hold neither than a double long and a double short?   

I don't follow SKF or UYG . . . but I do follow FAS and FAZ and over time they do errode in value significantly.  I mean look at where FAS and FAZ were in early January compared to where they are now!

However . . . for a short term hop in and make some money trade they present incredible value!  Especially if you are on the right side.  If you know the markets are going to be up jump in and grab some FAS and you get 10-15% in one day . . . if you know they are going to be down or due for a sell off grab some FAZ . . . however, if you are on the wrong side it hurts. 

But in the end I am assuming that both will go to $0 if given enough time.  Again . . . I would only hold at most one or two days and never over a weekend.  But that is just me. 

 
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Posted: #37
Bump
closed at  64.88 yesterday
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #38

 I feel a lot safer now that the economic crisis has been solved...

 
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Posted: #39
me too vermeer

honestly im baffled by all of this. i have a few friends who were continuing to play the market but after the Wells numbers yesterday, they got out of everything as they were done with the market. they finally realized that this thing is rigged....when Wells Fargo can blatantly lie and tell you they made 3b in Q1 either through the increased loan spread (fed borrowing v consumer lending) and AIG back doors and call that operating income, i dont think anyone knows what to think of this

big powerful behind the scenes money and forces wants equities up
 
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Posted: #40

 Don't get me wrong, I would love to see equities up..who doesn't?
However...I got a laugh out of this cogent recap...

"What you're seeing Bernanke do is he's trying to create a bailout
reflationary bubble, which he can't describe as a bubble, just as
Greenspan couldn't describe the housing mortgage bubble as a bubble.What we're seeing by Bernanke is a covert attempt to rebubble,"Phillips told Reuters.

Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini - who's been mostly right about the crisis -says that [Jim] "Cramer is a buffoon."

 
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Posted: #41
Wells was not one of the major offenders in the first place and they scooped up some pretty cheap retail assets on the fire sale.

I dont think the numbers are baked or manipulated, Wells didnt leverage to the severity say that Citi did, they picked up some profitable assets really cheap, so yeah I think the odds that they are getting closer to being finished is actually pretty good.
 
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Posted: #42
wall - they are borrowing from the Fed at 0 or close to zero and raising rates on most all of their loans due to "credit crisis"

they can pick up an extra 200-300 basis points on every dollar loaned. of course they are making money hand over fist
 
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Posted: #43
Yeah but they picked up a huge chunk of Wachovia retail assets for very cheap and they issued shares to pay for them...that goes straight to the bottom line.

Wells showed that if you dont overleverage and plan correctly, you can be there to scoop up bargains, and that is what they did.

Rates are going to stay low for a while, so yeah whatever they lend out will have good returns. I dont know how much of their profits are related to borrowing from the FED relative to their other business?

I recall that they didnt want the money, much like JP, they were never in severe straits like others who are STILL over-extended.
 
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Posted: #44
Here is the deal---
 
WE ARE F-KED.....END OF STORY.
 
Yeah, we have maybe like 12-18 months to "trade long" the irrationality and denial of many.
 
From now until end of '14-'15-------150% INFLATION.  Set in stone.
 
My apologies to those in denial, or to those "hoping" I am wrong.
 
Don't kill the messenger----I am only trying to help!
 
 
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Posted: #45
"US stocks rose for a fifth week, capping the steepest rally since 1933,"

As I recall, not from experience, 1934 was not a good year...but like everyone, I would like to think we are going to come out of it OK
 
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Posted: #46

  The Baby Boom mind is not able to process anything that does not start or end immediately. They are going to have to learn...from a Zine...

When we last visited the S&P web site a few weeks ago, the P/E ratio for the quarter ending September 30 was around 181. I must confess that when I looked at it today, as jaded as I am, I was shocked. You can see the numbers for yourself at https://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS?GXHC_gx_session_id_=5350992f205e73e4&.

The P/E ratio for the end of the second quarter is 1944 (not a typo). The losses of the 4th quarter wipe out almost all earnings for the 12 months ending June 30. But by the end of the 3rd quarter, the estimated P/E ratio has dropped to a (negative) -467. That has never happened. We have never seen negative earnings over a 12-month period since WWII. (I don't have data for the Depression era.)

Then as the negative earnings of the 4th quarter of 2008 drop off, we see the estimated P/E ratio rise back to 30, which is quite high. However, if actual earnings come in lower, as I think they will, the P/E ratio will rise and/or the market will fall as negative earnings surprises just keep on coming.

 
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Posted: #47
Yeah, Vermeer, but look at the TRILLIONS of dollars that have flooded the system.
 
This is why there is no way whatsoever to avoid inflation that makes crude and other commodities in 2008 look like a joke.
 
It's irrational and stupid....I agree.....but shorting this market now---well, you may as well soak yourself in blood and jump in a shark tank.
 
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Posted: #48
Clay,
 
This whole thing is a scam.  I was on the financials collapse yet still lost money buying SKF.  Then I was in all the PM's yet made nothing as Gold ran to almost 1k.  Of course I'm still holding.  Then I randomly pick a bunch of insurers banks and restaurants and make 200-700% returns but invested so small it barely helped.  I was too scared to get rid of my real positions in PM's to go big on the other trades.  I guess I'll just keep adding to my PM's and hope people come to their senses.
 
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Posted: #49
CC:

I am not shorting much of anything.In fact I have profited from GS for quite some time after realizing the government was dedicated to their prosperity above all things.

 However, I do not for one second feel that they have solved the financial crisis.If it were as easy as printing the money, life would be grand and easy.It isn't either one.

 The amount of these programs is huge, but when compared to the losses sustained world wide, they are a drop in the bucket.

 In sum, I hope the masses do buy in, listen to the same people who created the crisis, and they do manage to gin up a false rally on their faith in these people. I will be happily selling selected issues, accumulating gold, and  buying the favored few that the Treasury and the Fed have ordained as the winners of the debacle.


 
 
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Posted: #50
Palladium-
 
Yeah, for sure, SKF IS a scam---no one knows or can give any model whatsoever has to how it's priced.  I day-traded that damn thing once last summer and 'bout threw up.  Scam for sure.
 
Got to hand it to you, man.  Late last summer you got me seriously thinking of PMs (gold in particular).  Appreciate it, cause after doing the work on it, I realized that was/is really the only way to profit from these ridiculous bailout and stimulus packages that have been rammed down the taxpayers' throats.
 
Am just sticking with the physical bullion itself, cause as you know, trading the futures is a rigged game.
 
People will eventually start buying bullion once inflation starts to really run amok probably in later '10.  Until then, cause of the hype/hoopla/cheerleading on the current market, the CBs could force spot bullion back to high 600s.
 
We shall see,  best of luck-man!
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