SKF @ 91?

 CC

 The market may want something, but does not have the capacity to overrule reality but for so long.And the essential reality is like you say, no the banking crisis is not done, far from it.And on that basis, SKF will remain an interesting and volatile play for some time.

 

Not sure I understand this move.  I would be interested to see what others who understand these 200% volatility ETF's better than I do think, but based on the trading pattern of these ETF's,isn't this just about the worst thing you could do?  Wouldn't it make more sense to just hold neither than a double long and a double short?   

  A bottle of something I can afford if you win? What do you drink?

 I'd rather the over under be 40/175

 

OK,

 Its a deal.Not not one I think I will win necessarily, as manipulation is all in the hands of people who would rather be on your side rather han mine, but heck you are on...

 OK no problem...I will write the check...you are off to a good start...it promises to be an interesting quarter.

 You do take Indy Mac paper right?

I don't follow SKF or UYG . . . but I do follow FAS and FAZ and over time they do errode in value significantly.  I mean look at where FAS and FAZ were in early January compared to where they are now!

However . . . for a short term hop in and make some money trade they present incredible value!  Especially if you are on the right side.  If you know the markets are going to be up jump in and grab some FAS and you get 10-15% in one day . . . if you know they are going to be down or due for a sell off grab some FAZ . . . however, if you are on the wrong side it hurts. 

But in the end I am assuming that both will go to $0 if given enough time.  Again . . . I would only hold at most one or two days and never over a weekend.  But that is just me. 

 I feel a lot safer now that the economic crisis has been solved...

me too vermeer

honestly im baffled by all of this. i have a few friends who were continuing to play the market but after the Wells numbers yesterday, they got out of everything as they were done with the market. they finally realized that this thing is rigged....when Wells Fargo can blatantly lie and tell you they made 3b in Q1 either through the increased loan spread (fed borrowing v consumer lending) and AIG back doors and call that operating income, i dont think anyone knows what to think of this

big powerful behind the scenes money and forces wants equities up

 Don't get me wrong, I would love to see equities up..who doesn't?
However...I got a laugh out of this cogent recap...

"What you're seeing Bernanke do is he's trying to create a bailout
reflationary bubble, which he can't describe as a bubble, just as
Greenspan couldn't describe the housing mortgage bubble as a bubble.What we're seeing by Bernanke is a covert attempt to rebubble,"Phillips told Reuters.

Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini - who's been mostly right about the crisis -says that [Jim] "Cramer is a buffoon."

Wells was not one of the major offenders in the first place and they scooped up some pretty cheap retail assets on the fire sale.

I dont think the numbers are baked or manipulated, Wells didnt leverage to the severity say that Citi did, they picked up some profitable assets really cheap, so yeah I think the odds that they are getting closer to being finished is actually pretty good.

wall - they are borrowing from the Fed at 0 or close to zero and raising rates on most all of their loans due to "credit crisis"

they can pick up an extra 200-300 basis points on every dollar loaned. of course they are making money hand over fist

Yeah but they picked up a huge chunk of Wachovia retail assets for very cheap and they issued shares to pay for them...that goes straight to the bottom line.

Wells showed that if you dont overleverage and plan correctly, you can be there to scoop up bargains, and that is what they did.

Rates are going to stay low for a while, so yeah whatever they lend out will have good returns. I dont know how much of their profits are related to borrowing from the FED relative to their other business?

I recall that they didnt want the money, much like JP, they were never in severe straits like others who are STILL over-extended.

"US stocks rose for a fifth week, capping the steepest rally since 1933,"

As I recall, not from experience, 1934 was not a good year...but like everyone, I would like to think we are going to come out of it OK

  The Baby Boom mind is not able to process anything that does not start or end immediately. They are going to have to learn...from a Zine...

When we last visited the S&P web site a few weeks ago, the P/E ratio for the quarter ending September 30 was around 181. I must confess that when I looked at it today, as jaded as I am, I was shocked. You can see the numbers for yourself at https://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS?GXHC_gx_session_id_=5350992f205e73e4&.

The P/E ratio for the end of the second quarter is 1944 (not a typo). The losses of the 4^th quarter wipe out almost all earnings for the 12 months ending June 30. But by the end of the 3^rd quarter, the estimated P/E ratio has dropped to a (negative) -467. That has never happened. We have never seen negative earnings over a 12-month period since WWII. (I don't have data for the Depression era.)

Then as the negative earnings of the 4^th quarter of 2008 drop off, we see the estimated P/E ratio rise back to 30, which is quite high. However, if actual earnings come in lower, as I think they will, the P/E ratio will rise and/or the market will fall as negative earnings surprises just keep on coming.

CC:

I am not shorting much of anything.In fact I have profited from GS for quite some time after realizing the government was dedicated to their prosperity above all things.

 However, I do not for one second feel that they have solved the financial crisis.If it were as easy as printing the money, life would be grand and easy.It isn't either one.

 The amount of these programs is huge, but when compared to the losses sustained world wide, they are a drop in the bucket.

 In sum, I hope the masses do buy in, listen to the same people who created the crisis, and they do manage to gin up a false rally on their faith in these people. I will be happily selling selected issues, accumulating gold, and  buying the favored few that the Treasury and the Fed have ordained as the winners of the debacle.