Yeah, we had an explosive employment report that provided the big gains in the market. Almost 266,000 people added to the job market in November..
I read that something like 45k of those jobs were GM workers returning after the strike was finished, it might be why the market really didnt jump all that much.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Yeah, we had an explosive employment report that provided the big gains in the market. Almost 266,000 people added to the job market in November..
I read that something like 45k of those jobs were GM workers returning after the strike was finished, it might be why the market really didnt jump all that much.
Wall, the market DID jump a lot, better than 1% on the news on Friday. Also, we all know the data can be "noisy" on a month to month basis. Your GM reference is a perfect example..
More importantly, the 3-month average still has employment at better than 200k people a month. That's a big deal in an economy that's 10+ years into a bull market.
0
Wall, the market DID jump a lot, better than 1% on the news on Friday. Also, we all know the data can be "noisy" on a month to month basis. Your GM reference is a perfect example..
More importantly, the 3-month average still has employment at better than 200k people a month. That's a big deal in an economy that's 10+ years into a bull market.
I mentioned this in other threads, but I believe by April/May the markets are highly likely to erase the lows from the 20% bear late last year. During non recessionary times, the average recovery rate to new highs from a 20% decline is 182 days. That would put us on pace for a full recovery by the spring of 2019. I know many have the opinion that we have recovered too much, too fast, but history tells us that 20% declines during non recessionary times are merely blips on the radar. Even further, bears during recessionary times, while longer lasting, (median of 18 months) are countered by even stronger bull markets. The bear market average is 10 months including recessionary times. The average bull regardless of GNP is an astounding 30 months! All in all, based on history, this makes the past 90 days absolutely the most opportune time to put new capital to work. Case in point, I purchased 100 shares of the SPY at 258 just 27 days ago and have picked up 5.6%. Buy and hold is a path to guaranteed success. Do not ignore the time value of money.....it virtually guarantees success!
What a testament to the "buy and hold" strategy the last year has been for investors in AMERICA! Market bears will always point out that a correction is due, markets are too high or in a bubble and that it's time to sell, sell, sell. They will preach that they know the markets are headed for a 10 or 20 percent correction or worse. The reality is that fading our markets is the toughest game in town.
Pelosi nailed the final hammer into the Dems coffin last night by tearing up Trump's speech. Four more years is now a virtual certainty and that's good news for the markets!
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
I mentioned this in other threads, but I believe by April/May the markets are highly likely to erase the lows from the 20% bear late last year. During non recessionary times, the average recovery rate to new highs from a 20% decline is 182 days. That would put us on pace for a full recovery by the spring of 2019. I know many have the opinion that we have recovered too much, too fast, but history tells us that 20% declines during non recessionary times are merely blips on the radar. Even further, bears during recessionary times, while longer lasting, (median of 18 months) are countered by even stronger bull markets. The bear market average is 10 months including recessionary times. The average bull regardless of GNP is an astounding 30 months! All in all, based on history, this makes the past 90 days absolutely the most opportune time to put new capital to work. Case in point, I purchased 100 shares of the SPY at 258 just 27 days ago and have picked up 5.6%. Buy and hold is a path to guaranteed success. Do not ignore the time value of money.....it virtually guarantees success!
What a testament to the "buy and hold" strategy the last year has been for investors in AMERICA! Market bears will always point out that a correction is due, markets are too high or in a bubble and that it's time to sell, sell, sell. They will preach that they know the markets are headed for a 10 or 20 percent correction or worse. The reality is that fading our markets is the toughest game in town.
Pelosi nailed the final hammer into the Dems coffin last night by tearing up Trump's speech. Four more years is now a virtual certainty and that's good news for the markets!
Well said, Gamble... Well said.. It's never been too smart to bet against America.
There's no substitute for the American ingenuity this country has, combined with the freedoms (relative to most any other country on earth) for our entrepreneurs to seek their maximum potential.
How many other countries have just one FAANG stock ? It is simply amazing how successful these companies have become with their founders' amazing ambitions. Most of these companies are younger than 20 years old, and Apple only found its renaissance with Steve Jobs around '97. Google achieved a $1T market cap in a little over 15 years as a public company. No other company has ever achieved that in such a short period... , not Apple, not Microsoft..
0
Well said, Gamble... Well said.. It's never been too smart to bet against America.
There's no substitute for the American ingenuity this country has, combined with the freedoms (relative to most any other country on earth) for our entrepreneurs to seek their maximum potential.
How many other countries have just one FAANG stock ? It is simply amazing how successful these companies have become with their founders' amazing ambitions. Most of these companies are younger than 20 years old, and Apple only found its renaissance with Steve Jobs around '97. Google achieved a $1T market cap in a little over 15 years as a public company. No other company has ever achieved that in such a short period... , not Apple, not Microsoft..
Well folks, the last 7 months is 100% proof that the "buy and hold" investment strategy is one that is hard to beat. I have been a buy and hold investor for over three decades, but this year the Covid19 crisis prompted me to move 200K into cash. That was over 20% ago on the S&P index, so my defiance of my own rule now carries a $40,000+ price tag.
In over 3 decades of investing, 2020 will be my first year under performing the S&P index. I have been my own advisor and have never paid a fee, so I don't feel so horrible about the opportunity lost on the 40K (paying advisor fees would have cost me a literal fortune), but it is now clearer than ever to me that attempting to time the market is simply gambling. For now, I am in the catch22 situation of waiting for the market to provide me with a clear opportunity.
On a side note, and one that is seemingly out of my control, it's sad that this investment section has basically dried up. Many of the posters have left the site due to the horrible behavior of the "left" in the politics forums. Two weeks ago I left that cesspool of left winger insults and it was a great decision. My appeal for those that also disconnected from Covers is to come back to the business of making money in the investments section.
I sure do wish I had taken my own advice and bought WMT at 117 at the start of the Covid crisis.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
1
Well folks, the last 7 months is 100% proof that the "buy and hold" investment strategy is one that is hard to beat. I have been a buy and hold investor for over three decades, but this year the Covid19 crisis prompted me to move 200K into cash. That was over 20% ago on the S&P index, so my defiance of my own rule now carries a $40,000+ price tag.
In over 3 decades of investing, 2020 will be my first year under performing the S&P index. I have been my own advisor and have never paid a fee, so I don't feel so horrible about the opportunity lost on the 40K (paying advisor fees would have cost me a literal fortune), but it is now clearer than ever to me that attempting to time the market is simply gambling. For now, I am in the catch22 situation of waiting for the market to provide me with a clear opportunity.
On a side note, and one that is seemingly out of my control, it's sad that this investment section has basically dried up. Many of the posters have left the site due to the horrible behavior of the "left" in the politics forums. Two weeks ago I left that cesspool of left winger insults and it was a great decision. My appeal for those that also disconnected from Covers is to come back to the business of making money in the investments section.
I sure do wish I had taken my own advice and bought WMT at 117 at the start of the Covid crisis.
I always tell the younger folks -- really, all folks -- that if they have their long-term or retirement investments in place, they should never take them out. You should reevaluate from time to time, of course, and reallocate as needed. But NOTHING beats the long-term investment strategy of having good investments and letting the compound interest work for you.
I remember when you said you were going to a cash position. It is always a balance of where your individual peace of mind is with your risk. In your defense, the market was at an all-time high when the media scared the economy into a big dip. We all know the market will eventually come back. The question we never know -- is how long it will take. We have all seen dips that take a while to recover. But you are in a position that it will not affect your situation like a lot of others. I know of people that got out of the market at the absolute wrong time. They will never make up that lost money. This will affect them and their families forever.
As far as the WMT -- you cannot look at every missed opportunity with regret, or you will be constantly beating yourself up. There will always be the next opportunity. It is always best to forget and put it aside -- then move onto the next investment. You know this. There have been multiple ones lately. I am not a big proponent of individual stocks for long-term investing. But as far as individual chances apart from that -- there are plenty. I made a nice, nice profit just recently with AAPL, BA, F, and XOM. But these were just for short-term profit. For long-term the funds are always the way to go. On the other hand. I lost on TSLA. But as far as my long-term stuff -- I am way up for the year and ahead of the S&P.
Good luck on where you pick your next spot. Keep us posted. Maybe some of us will join you.
0
Gamble -- always good advice.
I always tell the younger folks -- really, all folks -- that if they have their long-term or retirement investments in place, they should never take them out. You should reevaluate from time to time, of course, and reallocate as needed. But NOTHING beats the long-term investment strategy of having good investments and letting the compound interest work for you.
I remember when you said you were going to a cash position. It is always a balance of where your individual peace of mind is with your risk. In your defense, the market was at an all-time high when the media scared the economy into a big dip. We all know the market will eventually come back. The question we never know -- is how long it will take. We have all seen dips that take a while to recover. But you are in a position that it will not affect your situation like a lot of others. I know of people that got out of the market at the absolute wrong time. They will never make up that lost money. This will affect them and their families forever.
As far as the WMT -- you cannot look at every missed opportunity with regret, or you will be constantly beating yourself up. There will always be the next opportunity. It is always best to forget and put it aside -- then move onto the next investment. You know this. There have been multiple ones lately. I am not a big proponent of individual stocks for long-term investing. But as far as individual chances apart from that -- there are plenty. I made a nice, nice profit just recently with AAPL, BA, F, and XOM. But these were just for short-term profit. For long-term the funds are always the way to go. On the other hand. I lost on TSLA. But as far as my long-term stuff -- I am way up for the year and ahead of the S&P.
Good luck on where you pick your next spot. Keep us posted. Maybe some of us will join you.
Gamble -- always good advice. I always tell the younger folks -- really, all folks -- that if they have their long-term or retirement investments in place, they should never take them out. You should reevaluate from time to time, of course, and reallocate as needed. But NOTHING beats the long-term investment strategy of having good investments and letting the compound interest work for you. I remember when you said you were going to a cash position. It is always a balance of where your individual peace of mind is with your risk. In your defense, the market was at an all-time high when the media scared the economy into a big dip. We all know the market will eventually come back. The question we never know -- is how long it will take. We have all seen dips that take a while to recover. But you are in a position that it will not affect your situation like a lot of others. I know of people that got out of the market at the absolute wrong time. They will never make up that lost money. This will affect them and their families forever. As far as the WMT -- you cannot look at every missed opportunity with regret, or you will be constantly beating yourself up. There will always be the next opportunity. It is always best to forget and put it aside -- then move onto the next investment. You know this. There have been multiple ones lately. I am not a big proponent of individual stocks for long-term investing. But as far as individual chances apart from that -- there are plenty. I made a nice, nice profit just recently with AAPL, BA, F, and XOM. But these were just for short-term profit. For long-term the funds are always the way to go. On the other hand. I lost on TSLA. But as far as my long-term stuff -- I am way up for the year and ahead of the S&P. Good luck on where you pick your next spot. Keep us posted. Maybe some of us will join you.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
Gamble -- always good advice. I always tell the younger folks -- really, all folks -- that if they have their long-term or retirement investments in place, they should never take them out. You should reevaluate from time to time, of course, and reallocate as needed. But NOTHING beats the long-term investment strategy of having good investments and letting the compound interest work for you. I remember when you said you were going to a cash position. It is always a balance of where your individual peace of mind is with your risk. In your defense, the market was at an all-time high when the media scared the economy into a big dip. We all know the market will eventually come back. The question we never know -- is how long it will take. We have all seen dips that take a while to recover. But you are in a position that it will not affect your situation like a lot of others. I know of people that got out of the market at the absolute wrong time. They will never make up that lost money. This will affect them and their families forever. As far as the WMT -- you cannot look at every missed opportunity with regret, or you will be constantly beating yourself up. There will always be the next opportunity. It is always best to forget and put it aside -- then move onto the next investment. You know this. There have been multiple ones lately. I am not a big proponent of individual stocks for long-term investing. But as far as individual chances apart from that -- there are plenty. I made a nice, nice profit just recently with AAPL, BA, F, and XOM. But these were just for short-term profit. For long-term the funds are always the way to go. On the other hand. I lost on TSLA. But as far as my long-term stuff -- I am way up for the year and ahead of the S&P. Good luck on where you pick your next spot. Keep us posted. Maybe some of us will join you.
Gamble I noticed you mentioned options earlier but have you ever thought of selling contracts rather than buying them? If you are holding shares there is no reason not to be selling out of the money covered calls against them. It is one of the safest ways to generate passive income without investing more of your money. The chance that it will be exercised and you will lose your shares is very low and if it does you will make a boatload of money and can buy back the shares again. If you sell covered calls on a stock you intend to hold for the long term anyway there is no way you can lose. Just my 2 cents, best of luck brother.
0
Gamble I noticed you mentioned options earlier but have you ever thought of selling contracts rather than buying them? If you are holding shares there is no reason not to be selling out of the money covered calls against them. It is one of the safest ways to generate passive income without investing more of your money. The chance that it will be exercised and you will lose your shares is very low and if it does you will make a boatload of money and can buy back the shares again. If you sell covered calls on a stock you intend to hold for the long term anyway there is no way you can lose. Just my 2 cents, best of luck brother.
Gamble I noticed you mentioned options earlier but have you ever thought of selling contracts rather than buying them? If you are holding shares there is no reason not to be selling out of the money covered calls against them. It is one of the safest ways to generate passive income without investing more of your money. The chance that it will be exercised and you will lose your shares is very low and if it does you will make a boatload of money and can buy back the shares again. If you sell covered calls on a stock you intend to hold for the long term anyway there is no way you can lose. Just my 2 cents, best of luck brother.
If you are not familiar with this you have to be kind of careful. It can be a profitable strategy. But if you have good stocks in a great market it may not work. However, if the market turns down or is somewhat flat or predictable -- then that is where you want to be. Let us say that you have some stocks that you like long term but they look to be flat for a good amount of time. Then this is a good strategy to at least make something for your 'bad' stocks -- until they turn into your 'good' stocks. But, if you have good stocks in a 'bull' market -- you should be doing great with your portfolio.
Folks keep predicting the end or downturn of the market -- that would be a much better time to sell covered-calls.
0
Quote Originally Posted by uncoolbear:
Gamble I noticed you mentioned options earlier but have you ever thought of selling contracts rather than buying them? If you are holding shares there is no reason not to be selling out of the money covered calls against them. It is one of the safest ways to generate passive income without investing more of your money. The chance that it will be exercised and you will lose your shares is very low and if it does you will make a boatload of money and can buy back the shares again. If you sell covered calls on a stock you intend to hold for the long term anyway there is no way you can lose. Just my 2 cents, best of luck brother.
If you are not familiar with this you have to be kind of careful. It can be a profitable strategy. But if you have good stocks in a great market it may not work. However, if the market turns down or is somewhat flat or predictable -- then that is where you want to be. Let us say that you have some stocks that you like long term but they look to be flat for a good amount of time. Then this is a good strategy to at least make something for your 'bad' stocks -- until they turn into your 'good' stocks. But, if you have good stocks in a 'bull' market -- you should be doing great with your portfolio.
Folks keep predicting the end or downturn of the market -- that would be a much better time to sell covered-calls.
Maybe that was not as clear as I meant it to. In other words, if the stock you write the covered-call on goes up too much it could end up 'in-the-money'. Then the call would be exercised and sold off. If you still wanted to maintain that amount of stock in your portfolio -- you would have to re-buy the stock.
0
Maybe that was not as clear as I meant it to. In other words, if the stock you write the covered-call on goes up too much it could end up 'in-the-money'. Then the call would be exercised and sold off. If you still wanted to maintain that amount of stock in your portfolio -- you would have to re-buy the stock.
Maybe that was not as clear as I meant it to. In other words, if the stock you write the covered-call on goes up too much it could end up 'in-the-money'. Then the call would be exercised and sold off. If you still wanted to maintain that amount of stock in your portfolio -- you would have to re-buy the stock.
Correct, but you get to choose the strike price. You could set unrealistic strike price on a weekly and make $50/week on AAPL. $50x52 is an extra $2600/year and you get to keep all your shares. Because they are weeklies you could still be making money as the price of stock goes up and cash in on the extra premium from covered calls without any real threat of being exercised. It has been a game changer to my portfolio, but everyone has their own style, you gotta do what works best for you and your risk aversion.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
Maybe that was not as clear as I meant it to. In other words, if the stock you write the covered-call on goes up too much it could end up 'in-the-money'. Then the call would be exercised and sold off. If you still wanted to maintain that amount of stock in your portfolio -- you would have to re-buy the stock.
Correct, but you get to choose the strike price. You could set unrealistic strike price on a weekly and make $50/week on AAPL. $50x52 is an extra $2600/year and you get to keep all your shares. Because they are weeklies you could still be making money as the price of stock goes up and cash in on the extra premium from covered calls without any real threat of being exercised. It has been a game changer to my portfolio, but everyone has their own style, you gotta do what works best for you and your risk aversion.
Bear....just catching up on this. My advice would be to remember that every strategy has inherent risks. Don't get fooled into complacency by thinking otherwise.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Bear....just catching up on this. My advice would be to remember that every strategy has inherent risks. Don't get fooled into complacency by thinking otherwise.
I was just revisiting this thread and thinking how much of a shame it is that the leftist socialists here ran Rush off from this site. Rush, if you are out there, just come back to the investment section.
Let's make some money!
I have some cash and your stock picks always get the green!
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
I was just revisiting this thread and thinking how much of a shame it is that the leftist socialists here ran Rush off from this site. Rush, if you are out there, just come back to the investment section.
Let's make some money!
I have some cash and your stock picks always get the green!
Yes. Very good recovery for the markets. Overall a very good year as well.
Hate that I know so many folks that got shell-shocked at the wrong time. You cannot get scared and get out of the market. Then you are trying to 'time' it by default. Just buy and hold.
0
Yes. Very good recovery for the markets. Overall a very good year as well.
Hate that I know so many folks that got shell-shocked at the wrong time. You cannot get scared and get out of the market. Then you are trying to 'time' it by default. Just buy and hold.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
