Some sound advice for this forum....buy and hold!

What an exciting time in the markets. As this thread title implies, I am not a trader....I don't try to time the markets. The boatload of money I made in the markets in January has gone "poof" in 4 trading days. I am not surprised at all. This is healthy for the markets and something the markets needed. 

The facts are this: 

*Earnings are beating estimates 9 out of 10. 

*Wages are incresing. 

*Jobs are increasing with unemployment at near all time lows. 

*GNP has touched or exceeded 3% for the last three quarters in more than a decade.

Bottom line....the market will end the year higher and this will be just another blip that scared out investers that are not commited to the long haul. BUY AND HOLD and you will prosper.

The market bottom retest from last weeks lows has clearly set a floor for markets here in the USA. Generally market bottoms are retested and this bounce back today sets a buyable floor at 2,588 on the s&p. Any sell off in this range will be bought agressively.

All of this noise in the form of tarrifs and fed rate hikes has proven to be a buying opportunity. I would not be surprised to see the markets build off of this momentum and provide 8-10% gains across the board in 2018. Earnings have been consistenlty strong, and the economy is showing no signs of slowing. 

I suspect come the summer months when many of the traders take vacations and trading volume disspates, the market volatility will go away and the markets will trickle higher without the huge swings. 

Buy and hold!

Earnings season is going better than expected and the markets are off to the races as I predicted. I doubt we see a retest of the 2588 level on the S&P at this point without a war with Syria or N. Korea. It's time to make $$$$$ in 2018!

The s&p is up 5% since the correction lows. Support at 2588 was outstanding as I predicted yet this thread has gone as stale as last months milk carton at the back of the fridge. I hope someone benefited out there. 5% of a portfolio is good money!

Good luck to all.....Buy and Hold!

The VIX dropped to below $12 today. This is a bullish indicator for stocks...….looks like the summer stock market melt up is well underway!

Gamble, congrats on your success.  Good to see others like you believe in the buy & hold strategy of good, sound companies.  I'd encourage most people starting out buying  a low cost index fund, instead of stocks, until they are comfortable enough doing so.  Index Funds are more diversified and can avoid folks becoming discouraged with bad stock picks.

But Buy and Hold IS the way to go !! 

Rush. I have been investing successfully for over 3 decades and the one thing I have learned is this. Investing is not a magic trick....it takes dedication in the form of patience and hard work! Since I enjoy it, I don't consider it work....more like a hobby that makes money.

However, since successful investing takes a lot of time (years, if not decades) and effort there will always be lazy people looking to pull off a magic trick in the form of penny stocks or other similarly flawed investments. I suppose those are the same people playing 10 team parlays and buying lottery tickets on a daily basis. Unfortunately, nothing you or I say will get them to stop.

I tend to agree with you. I would never buy penny stocks as they are the slow road to the poor house. I remeber my Mother buying them investing $1500-$2500 on each one and she probably cought 20+ penny stocks at that. When I settled my parents estate each was worth $0. Also trying to time buying and selling stocks (flipping) will usually only put money in a brokers pocket.

I'm not against pulling profit from a long term stock, but yes here comes the Capital Gains Tax. As holic63 said in a qualified investment this won't happen if you re-invest it but you just owned a profitable stock so picking another not so easy.

Mutual funds in my opinion is the way to go for most people with the ability to leave the money alone without panic. Find a good mid to large cap fund (based on risk tollerance) and just know you will earn an average of 8%-10% over that decade even with record losing days during the period. Make sure to find a/several funds with a long track record and research how long the current manager has been managing it and his performance. For goodness sake, try to buy directly from the managing company, but if using a broker or agent buy A type shares. Yes you will pay a fee up front but the internal cost in A shares are lower and owning the B shares with a back end load will be more expensive if you keep it there for 3+ years usually.

I also think the market is do for a correction and myself personally have been buying Puts on the S&P and NASDAQ with espiration dates in April-June of 2019 and a few for this Nov and Dec when I think there will be a Bear after the mid term elections.

Bryant....In regard to your view that the market is due for a correction, you might be right or you might be wrong. The reality is that the direction of the markets is mostly uncertain, making the timing of the markets a tricky proposition. I had friends/family that liquidated after election day in 2016, as it was widely the opinion (of the so called experts) that Hilary was a better choice for the markets when compared to Trump. Those fears (of Trump) capitulated in a span of less than a handful of hours, dealing the bears an unplayable hand and crippling losses. Anyone that sold on that day (and did not buy back) has lost a 33% gain based on the S&P 500. 

The moral of that story is don't make market decisions based on politics. Brexit and November of 2016 backfired big time on the bears, making any correction for the "buy and hold" camp simply the price of doing business. 

    I'm in the same boat as you.  Perhaps my earlier post came off as investing is some sort of grueling task, but I enjoy it as well.. I read plenty about finance/stocks because I enjoy it , and that knowledge only helps in my stock portfolio.  I prefer,  however,  to have the vast majority of my $$ in low-cost mutual funds... because I know they perform better in the long-term than active funds (and stock pickers like us)...

If you follow your own advice I have put in bold, you and anyone else will do well in the stock market.   I only have a couple of caveats to add...

* prefer to deal with low-cost mutual funds as opposed to active fund managers.  Better performance, lower-cost, lower capital gains tax (because they don't trade as much)....  and for god's sake, no one ever should be paying a mutual fund that has a load..

* Finally, never try to time the market. No one can do this successfully (over a long period of time ; which should be your time horizon).    Instead, look at market dips as opportunities to buy more.  Stocks are the only thing on earth where people run in the other direction when the "merchandise" goes on sale.

I concur Rush! Most of my funds are in the 0.10-0.20% fee range, although I do own one fund with a 0.58% yearly fee. My extreme low end fee funds are all ETF's which unfortunately tend to shed value quicker in sell offs (in part due to their low fees and ease of exit). But as you said, the time to buy is during extreme sell offs.

About a decade ago, I began helping a small handful of family/friends with investing and I was disgusted going through their broker statements. Some of the stuff I saw was downright criminal. Fees on top of fees on top of fees! Everyone is entitled to make a living, but investment firms are coming up way short of what I would call "ethical behavior". It's sad, but it puts a premium on the importance of being self educated in regard to your finances. 

  You're right , gamble.. Lots of shady stuff goes on by brokers.  Downright unethical as you mention..

I don't do ETFs, only index mutual funds..  ETFs are better vehicles for those that like to trade, which may help explain the exodus of people selling in market selloffs (compared to those that own mutual funds).  Since you're a buy and hold individual, have you thought of index mutual funds,  instead.  Could be wrong, but I believe they may be more tax efficient than ETFs,  since the trading done by individuals is kept to a minimum in these index mutual funds. 

Rush...I do own several index mutual funds. 6 with Vanguard and a handful with Fidelity. Honestly, in this day and age, I believe people can get by with 5 or 6 holdings and be completely diversified. 5 years ago I had nearly 40 different holdings but I have been paring down and am now under 30. I will never get down to 5 or 6, but I would like to get under 20. It's really too much to keep up with. 

I'm sure you guys saw the Fed statements yesterday about how they see continued economic growth through 2021. Combine that with their statement about the lack of inflationary pressures and it all adds up to higher markets, no?

The target rate of 3.5% should be achieved by late next year at which point the Fed states they intend to remain in a "rate neutral" policy for as long as we avoid a recession. A 3.5% rate would no longer be viewed as "accommodative" nor "stimulating". 

Isn't this the "Goldilocks" economy that past generations have talked about for USA? 

Does this bull really have three more years to run? 

All thoughts on this topic are welcomed.

I mentioned this in other threads, but I believe by April/May the markets are highly likely to erase the lows from the 20% bear late last year. During non recessionary times, the average recovery rate to new highs from a 20% decline is 182 days. That would put us on pace for a full recovery by the spring of 2019. 

I know many have the opinion that we have recovered too much, too fast, but history tells us that 20% declines during non recessionary times are merely blips on the radar. Even further, bears during recessionary times, while longer lasting, (median of 18 months) are countered by even stronger bull markets. The bear market average is 10 months including recessionary times. The average bull regardless of GNP is an astounding 30 months!

All in all, based on history, this makes the past 90 days absolutely the most opportune time to put new capital to work. Case in point, I purchased 100 shares of the SPY at 258 just 27 days ago and have picked up 5.6%. 

Buy and hold is a path to guaranteed success. Do not ignore the time value of money.....it virtually guarantees success!

Boom !   Good call on the recovery from earlier this year. 

Appreciate you sharing those data points on bear markets.

Thanks Rush! I'm not necessarily a technical/chart guy, but I do believe that bull and bear markets are "somewhat" predictable and are a big piece to the puzzle. 

The current situation we have in the markets is very interesting. I wasn't expecting Trump to send a warning tweet about the trade deal being delayed until 2020. I mean, I expected that would be the case, but I didn't think Trump would admit it as it is in his best interests from a re-election viewpoint. All in all, I think the markets are acting quite orderly. 

I would agree 'Gamble.  The markets are acting quite orderly considering the comments from Trump about delaying the Phase 1 Trade Deal.   Markets should have sold off much more aggressively IMHO.  

Good for Trump for playing hardball w/ the Chinese, though.  We haven't had any U.S. president stand up for U.S. interests as much as him..   As I pointed out in the other thread, Chinese constantly are playing games and looking to extract further concessions, like a rollback of existing tariffs for Phase 1 Trade Deal.

Trump & his Trade Representative Lighthizer are holding out on any tariff rollbacks until Phase 2 and 3 (should they ever come to fruition).  Phase 2 and 3 would  address the forced technology transfers & state subsidies cheating that China has engaged in for years... 

I'm not sure we ever get a Phase 2 or 3 deal, which is why I think the current tariffs stay in place for a lonnnnnnnnng time.

This country needs to unite and give Trump 4 more years. China is running the old Dean Smith "Four Corners" strategy and it will work if Trump doesn't win. If Trump loses and the Democrats take over, we are basically permanently screwed on trade. 

Here is what I think/hope happens. 

Phase one isn't going to be a great deal for the USA and Trump knows it. Trump will let China play their delay tactics to the hilt and will take a "bad deal" somewhere between March-June of next year to complete phase 1. Trump will spin the deal as a glorious victory, and the media (Fox and the financial networks only) will help him out by touting the potential extension of the 10 year Bull Market. With this train of thought, a pullback of the markets leading into the spring of 2020 makes for perfect logic. The pullback will give the markets room to run when Trump puts phase one to ink with the anticipation of phases 2 and 3. The markets will rally on this promise (and rightly so) and Trump will get his 4 more years to tighten the noose on China.  

The true brilliance from the mind of Trump is splitting this entire deal into three phases. For all his faults, he is a brilliant negotiator. His excellence in this area should not be understated. Without getting China to agree to a 3 phase deal, the scenario above would not be allowed to unfold. 

Very well said, 'Gamble.. You covered a lot of ground and I agree with lots you had to say, particularly about Trump's negotiating style.  We'd be screwed (and have been for decades) w/o him. 

It certainly was brilliant of him to spread the trade deal into different phases.  IMO, this was a product of China's inability to keep their end of the bargain earlier in the year, when trade agreements/discussions "held in principle"  fell through.   When it came to signing the agreement earlier in the year, it was the Phase 2 and Phase 3 "stuff" that the Chinese had crossed out on the signing document.  How nice of them. 

So, breaking it into phases was a smart move by him.

Friday was a day that proved that timing the market is very difficult. All the cards were aligned for the market to continue to drop, yet we had a huge up day. Go figure?