For those of you that are into this type of thing, the DJIA is approaching its 65-day SMA. Since the March low, the 65-day SMA has been tested 2 times, and failed both times... Here we are very near a 3rd time..
Both the S&P500 & NAS have already pierced through the 65-day SMA and moved higher (due to big tech). IMHO, the DJIA does seem to be the best of the 3 indexes at measuring the health of big company stocks in the economy . Both S&P and NAS are overwhelmingly dominated by big tech and the "Five Horsemen" I refer to, so it skews the overall health of the economy... The DJIA includes just two of them, AAPL & MSFT.
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For those of you that are into this type of thing, the DJIA is approaching its 65-day SMA. Since the March low, the 65-day SMA has been tested 2 times, and failed both times... Here we are very near a 3rd time..
Both the S&P500 & NAS have already pierced through the 65-day SMA and moved higher (due to big tech). IMHO, the DJIA does seem to be the best of the 3 indexes at measuring the health of big company stocks in the economy . Both S&P and NAS are overwhelmingly dominated by big tech and the "Five Horsemen" I refer to, so it skews the overall health of the economy... The DJIA includes just two of them, AAPL & MSFT.
Awesome day for the markets today thanks to Moderna (up 20% today) and the positive vaccine news. I'm not a believer that a vaccine vaults the markets to all time highs, but if the markets can tread water for the next year or so, I will be happy to collect the dividends.
Moving on, options trades are indicating a potential 7% pop in WMT by the end of the week. I'm hoping to get in around $123, so I haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet. Having cash on the sidelines is a good problem to have, but not when the markets are surging like today.
Another interesting point I saw today on CNBC. I would put it in the crypto/short/puts thread, but today but that would not be kind on such an epic day for the markets. Anyway, since the "halving" Bitcoin transaction fees have gone up a whopping 168%. I know the fees on BTC were absurd prior to the halving, but a 168% rise in fees is not conducive to increasing participation in the crypto space. They also discussed "whale" manipulation of BTC which is another topic altogether, but if all transactions are as secretive as they say, can anything be done to prevent it?
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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Awesome day for the markets today thanks to Moderna (up 20% today) and the positive vaccine news. I'm not a believer that a vaccine vaults the markets to all time highs, but if the markets can tread water for the next year or so, I will be happy to collect the dividends.
Moving on, options trades are indicating a potential 7% pop in WMT by the end of the week. I'm hoping to get in around $123, so I haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet. Having cash on the sidelines is a good problem to have, but not when the markets are surging like today.
Another interesting point I saw today on CNBC. I would put it in the crypto/short/puts thread, but today but that would not be kind on such an epic day for the markets. Anyway, since the "halving" Bitcoin transaction fees have gone up a whopping 168%. I know the fees on BTC were absurd prior to the halving, but a 168% rise in fees is not conducive to increasing participation in the crypto space. They also discussed "whale" manipulation of BTC which is another topic altogether, but if all transactions are as secretive as they say, can anything be done to prevent it?
Gamble, it was a great day for sure ! Even if we get the vaccine in an expedited fashion, it sure is hard to see how our economy gets back on track as soon as our stock market thinks. But hey, who the hell am I.. Let's just enjoy the ride while we can.
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Gamble, it was a great day for sure ! Even if we get the vaccine in an expedited fashion, it sure is hard to see how our economy gets back on track as soon as our stock market thinks. But hey, who the hell am I.. Let's just enjoy the ride while we can.
I have to say I've been pretty impressed with how well GOOGL has held up here these last couple of days, in spite of the antitrust case brought forth by the DOJ on Friday. From what I've read, the case has additional backing from several state Attorneys General. It's not clear if they will bring forth separate charges, but however you cut it , this doesn't look good for GOOGL. I'm not sure what the repercussions could be for their digital ad business, which is the DOJ's primary focus and GOOGL's breadwinner by a long shot. That's a bit of a concern as a stockowner of GOOGL, but I'm not selling here at all. I still believe in the company long-term, and is still my favorite of all the big techs because it continually invests in many different business segments (noted as their "other bets" businesses). That being said, digitial ad still makes up a significant amount of their revenue & profit.. I also own a smaller position , about 1/2 the size, in FB too. But it is also in the crosshairs of the DOJ, too . Lol.. (as well as AMZN & AAPL).
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I have to say I've been pretty impressed with how well GOOGL has held up here these last couple of days, in spite of the antitrust case brought forth by the DOJ on Friday. From what I've read, the case has additional backing from several state Attorneys General. It's not clear if they will bring forth separate charges, but however you cut it , this doesn't look good for GOOGL. I'm not sure what the repercussions could be for their digital ad business, which is the DOJ's primary focus and GOOGL's breadwinner by a long shot. That's a bit of a concern as a stockowner of GOOGL, but I'm not selling here at all. I still believe in the company long-term, and is still my favorite of all the big techs because it continually invests in many different business segments (noted as their "other bets" businesses). That being said, digitial ad still makes up a significant amount of their revenue & profit.. I also own a smaller position , about 1/2 the size, in FB too. But it is also in the crosshairs of the DOJ, too . Lol.. (as well as AMZN & AAPL).
Rush. As you know, I am also a GOOG shareholder but I'm not overly concerned about this legal issue. GOOG has been dealing with many similar cases over the years and the problem always goes the same way. Google ends up cutting a check for 10m or 13m and it's over. These are just speed bumps and really have no impact that concerns me as a shareholder. I have been in the stock since the very beginning (thanks to James Cramer when he started his show daily with GOOGLE spelled out on his knuckles) and it's among my best lifetime performers.
....sure do wish I had bought FG, AAPL and AMZN though, although I do own a piece of them all in mutual funds.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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Rush. As you know, I am also a GOOG shareholder but I'm not overly concerned about this legal issue. GOOG has been dealing with many similar cases over the years and the problem always goes the same way. Google ends up cutting a check for 10m or 13m and it's over. These are just speed bumps and really have no impact that concerns me as a shareholder. I have been in the stock since the very beginning (thanks to James Cramer when he started his show daily with GOOGLE spelled out on his knuckles) and it's among my best lifetime performers.
....sure do wish I had bought FG, AAPL and AMZN though, although I do own a piece of them all in mutual funds.
WMT fell today almost into my buy range but I am wondering how they will react long term to their supply chains in China. Leaving China will apply downward pressure to margins, which unfortunately, will surely result in price increases along many product lines.
I'm pulling the trigger at $123 or less regardless, but the supply chain risk is a big concern.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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WMT fell today almost into my buy range but I am wondering how they will react long term to their supply chains in China. Leaving China will apply downward pressure to margins, which unfortunately, will surely result in price increases along many product lines.
I'm pulling the trigger at $123 or less regardless, but the supply chain risk is a big concern.
Rush. As you know, I am also a GOOG shareholder but I'm not overly concerned about this legal issue. GOOG has been dealing with many similar cases over the years and the problem always goes the same way. Google ends up cutting a check for 10m or 13m and it's over. These are just speed bumps and really have no impact that concerns me as a shareholder. I have been in the stock since the very beginning (thanks to James Cramer when he started his show daily with GOOGLE spelled out on his knuckles) and it's among my best lifetime performers. ....sure do wish I had bought FG, AAPL and AMZN though, although I do own a piece of them all in mutual funds.
Absolutely, Gamble. I know you're one of the early investors. What a winner that is ! You can tell the early investors from later ones like me , because we got a different ticker symbol (GOOGL). I think the GOOGL shares are referenced as Class C shares, and don't have any voting rights.. Big Deal ! Lol. GOOG investors got in nice and early.
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Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
Rush. As you know, I am also a GOOG shareholder but I'm not overly concerned about this legal issue. GOOG has been dealing with many similar cases over the years and the problem always goes the same way. Google ends up cutting a check for 10m or 13m and it's over. These are just speed bumps and really have no impact that concerns me as a shareholder. I have been in the stock since the very beginning (thanks to James Cramer when he started his show daily with GOOGLE spelled out on his knuckles) and it's among my best lifetime performers. ....sure do wish I had bought FG, AAPL and AMZN though, although I do own a piece of them all in mutual funds.
Absolutely, Gamble. I know you're one of the early investors. What a winner that is ! You can tell the early investors from later ones like me , because we got a different ticker symbol (GOOGL). I think the GOOGL shares are referenced as Class C shares, and don't have any voting rights.. Big Deal ! Lol. GOOG investors got in nice and early.
WMT fell today almost into my buy range but I am wondering how they will react long term to their supply chains in China. Leaving China will apply downward pressure to margins, which unfortunately, will surely result in price increases along many product lines. I'm pulling the trigger at $123 or less regardless, but the supply chain risk is a big concern.
I wouldn't worry too much about the China-issue w/ Walmart. When/if it becomes an issue for America, our economy as a whole is gonna get whipsawed around along with Walmart. It's a good question to consider though ; how many of Walmart's vendors have their products produced or have supply chains in China? It might be smaller than we think. Electronics & Toys (plastics) and furniture still come from there lots... In my working experience, China is most heavily involved in the electronics industry in almost every facet. But China has really steered away from a lot of clothing and textiles in the last decade or so. You'll see in your clothes that most stuff nowadays comes from Vietnam, Cambodia, Phillipines, etc. Countries in the South Pacific .. It sounds funny, but China's input costs for labor have accelerated lots in recent years, forcing these moves to lesser-skilled countries..
I still say AAPL is the single company most heavily exposed with a big problem with China. Its most iconic and bread and butter product for the company has China vendors all over the place. When/if increased tarriffs or sanctions ever get applied by the U.S., AAPL better look out below !
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Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
WMT fell today almost into my buy range but I am wondering how they will react long term to their supply chains in China. Leaving China will apply downward pressure to margins, which unfortunately, will surely result in price increases along many product lines. I'm pulling the trigger at $123 or less regardless, but the supply chain risk is a big concern.
I wouldn't worry too much about the China-issue w/ Walmart. When/if it becomes an issue for America, our economy as a whole is gonna get whipsawed around along with Walmart. It's a good question to consider though ; how many of Walmart's vendors have their products produced or have supply chains in China? It might be smaller than we think. Electronics & Toys (plastics) and furniture still come from there lots... In my working experience, China is most heavily involved in the electronics industry in almost every facet. But China has really steered away from a lot of clothing and textiles in the last decade or so. You'll see in your clothes that most stuff nowadays comes from Vietnam, Cambodia, Phillipines, etc. Countries in the South Pacific .. It sounds funny, but China's input costs for labor have accelerated lots in recent years, forcing these moves to lesser-skilled countries..
I still say AAPL is the single company most heavily exposed with a big problem with China. Its most iconic and bread and butter product for the company has China vendors all over the place. When/if increased tarriffs or sanctions ever get applied by the U.S., AAPL better look out below !
[Quote: Originally Posted by Rush51]Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63: Rush. As you know, I am also a GOOG shareholder but I'm not overly concerned about this legal issue. GOOG has been dealing with many similar cases over the years and the problem always goes the same way. Google ends up cutting a check for 10m or 13m and it's over. These are just speed bumps and really have no impact that concerns me as a shareholder. I have been in the stock since the very beginning (thanks to James Cramer when he started his show daily with GOOGLE spelled out on his knuckles) and it's among my best lifetime performers. ....sure do wish I had bought FG, AAPL and AMZN though, although I do own a piece of them all in mutual funds. Absolutely, Gamble. I know you're one of the early investors. What a winner that is ! You can tell the early investors from later ones like me , because we got a different ticker symbol (GOOGL). I think the GOOGL shares are referenced as Class C shares, and don't have any voting rights.. Big Deal ! Lol. GOOG investors got in nice and early.[/Quot
Yeah. I remember when they split the stock. I had only bought 15 shares back in the day. Cramer was begging everyone watching his show to buy at least one share and the stock was expensive for me at the time. I bought the stock 4 days after it IPO'd but it was very difficult to get in with limit orders. The IPO price was a Dutch Auction which was an utter failure by the underwriter and demand was unprecedented for an IPO. On the 4th day I said the heck with it and put in a market order when the stock was around $150 or so. The backlog was so deep I ended up paying $228 a share on my market order. I wasn't happy about that at the time as the market order ended up costing me an additional $78 per share.
Anyway, when the stock split, I ended up with 15 of the GOOG which I bought originally and 15 of the non voting shares like you have. I recall the voting rights were a big deal at the time (I have never exercised my voting rights ever) and some lawyers got involved that were upset about the voting rights not being issued on the split. I actually received a lawsuit packet that guaranteed me the difference back in cash if the spread between the two share types exceeded 5% within a couple of years. I remember that the spread did approach the 5% limit after the split, but never exceeded it. I'm sure the big wigs at Google were buying up the non voting shares anytime it got close.
The Dutch Auction was a big story. I'm not sure if you are familiar with it, but it's an interesting read if you have the time.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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[Quote: Originally Posted by Rush51]Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63: Rush. As you know, I am also a GOOG shareholder but I'm not overly concerned about this legal issue. GOOG has been dealing with many similar cases over the years and the problem always goes the same way. Google ends up cutting a check for 10m or 13m and it's over. These are just speed bumps and really have no impact that concerns me as a shareholder. I have been in the stock since the very beginning (thanks to James Cramer when he started his show daily with GOOGLE spelled out on his knuckles) and it's among my best lifetime performers. ....sure do wish I had bought FG, AAPL and AMZN though, although I do own a piece of them all in mutual funds. Absolutely, Gamble. I know you're one of the early investors. What a winner that is ! You can tell the early investors from later ones like me , because we got a different ticker symbol (GOOGL). I think the GOOGL shares are referenced as Class C shares, and don't have any voting rights.. Big Deal ! Lol. GOOG investors got in nice and early.[/Quot
Yeah. I remember when they split the stock. I had only bought 15 shares back in the day. Cramer was begging everyone watching his show to buy at least one share and the stock was expensive for me at the time. I bought the stock 4 days after it IPO'd but it was very difficult to get in with limit orders. The IPO price was a Dutch Auction which was an utter failure by the underwriter and demand was unprecedented for an IPO. On the 4th day I said the heck with it and put in a market order when the stock was around $150 or so. The backlog was so deep I ended up paying $228 a share on my market order. I wasn't happy about that at the time as the market order ended up costing me an additional $78 per share.
Anyway, when the stock split, I ended up with 15 of the GOOG which I bought originally and 15 of the non voting shares like you have. I recall the voting rights were a big deal at the time (I have never exercised my voting rights ever) and some lawyers got involved that were upset about the voting rights not being issued on the split. I actually received a lawsuit packet that guaranteed me the difference back in cash if the spread between the two share types exceeded 5% within a couple of years. I remember that the spread did approach the 5% limit after the split, but never exceeded it. I'm sure the big wigs at Google were buying up the non voting shares anytime it got close.
The Dutch Auction was a big story. I'm not sure if you are familiar with it, but it's an interesting read if you have the time.
Hey Gamble.. That's an interesting story as it relates to Google. I remember a bit about it at the time when those non-voting shares were issued. Co-founders Larry Page & Sergie Brin were still really young and inexperienced (management-wise) in running the company. They were Great tech entrepreneurs, but there was some skepticism at their ability/intentions running the company when those non-voting shares were issued. I remember reading someone joking at the time that the two could turn the company into a bird sanctuary (or whatever), and shareholders wouldn't be able to do much about it . Lol. Obviously, an extreme example, but was funny to read.. I think that's why those two ended up hiring Eric Schmidt as a CEO of the company. I recall either Larry Page or Sergei Brin admittedly saying they needed "an adult in the room" to run the company in those early years, and Eric fit the bill ! Lol. The rest is history , of course. What a juggernaut of a company !
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Hey Gamble.. That's an interesting story as it relates to Google. I remember a bit about it at the time when those non-voting shares were issued. Co-founders Larry Page & Sergie Brin were still really young and inexperienced (management-wise) in running the company. They were Great tech entrepreneurs, but there was some skepticism at their ability/intentions running the company when those non-voting shares were issued. I remember reading someone joking at the time that the two could turn the company into a bird sanctuary (or whatever), and shareholders wouldn't be able to do much about it . Lol. Obviously, an extreme example, but was funny to read.. I think that's why those two ended up hiring Eric Schmidt as a CEO of the company. I recall either Larry Page or Sergei Brin admittedly saying they needed "an adult in the room" to run the company in those early years, and Eric fit the bill ! Lol. The rest is history , of course. What a juggernaut of a company !
I sound like a broken record here, but the moves in the market continue to be "bifurcated." Namely, "the Five Horsemen" of Big Tech are taking a disproportionate amount of the gains here, and pulling everybody along with it. This is not healthy in any way shape or form for the Markets. As an example today, declining volume vs. advancing volume was 3:1 today. Horrendous ! I just wonder how long the facade can continue and cover for the other 495 companies in the index that aren't performing as well.. We haven't talked about oil recently, but it has really performed well in recent weeks. I've noticed around here in SoCAL that a lot more people are driving around compared to just a few weeks ago. I think that comes as no surprise that more people would drive with SOME businesses re-opening, but I was surprised just how many people were on the road. I would estimate it was about 70-80% of the volume of cars compared w/ pre-Chinese Virus. (I heard someone else in the GD forum talk about similar experiences where he lived). Granted, these are narrow sample sizes, but it does seem to indicate that a lot of people are driving around now even with a fair amount of business closures.. So, how does this now effect the price of oil ? I earlier thought $25/barrel was a fair price of oil in this environment, but frankly I'm surprised at the volume of cars on the road already... Perhaps, we can jump another $10/barrel before we plateau a bit.. Who knows.. And I'm intentionally disregarding the "supply side" of oil for the time being. OPEC+ is doing their part, and SA talked about cutting another 1mbpd just today. The U.S., for their part, has already cut around 1mbpd from its all the time highs reached in mid-March , which was about 13.1 mbpd.
I wrote this about 1.5 weeks ago... I recently came across an article that put some data behind my earlier "eyeball estimate" measuring the number of drivers on the road, and in turn, a reasonable approximation of oil/gas usage in this country. It looked at the number of Google Maps & Apple Maps usage by drivers in recent months for directions, etc.. Not surprisingly, in March, the app usage was down about -50% what it was in the year earlier period. A sample taken in late April suggested that usage of the apps was down by only about -25% compared to the year earlier period. How funny is that. That compares pretty well with my earlier estimate a few weeks ago saying " it was about 70-80% of the volume of cars compared w/ pre-Chinese Virus."
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
I sound like a broken record here, but the moves in the market continue to be "bifurcated." Namely, "the Five Horsemen" of Big Tech are taking a disproportionate amount of the gains here, and pulling everybody along with it. This is not healthy in any way shape or form for the Markets. As an example today, declining volume vs. advancing volume was 3:1 today. Horrendous ! I just wonder how long the facade can continue and cover for the other 495 companies in the index that aren't performing as well.. We haven't talked about oil recently, but it has really performed well in recent weeks. I've noticed around here in SoCAL that a lot more people are driving around compared to just a few weeks ago. I think that comes as no surprise that more people would drive with SOME businesses re-opening, but I was surprised just how many people were on the road. I would estimate it was about 70-80% of the volume of cars compared w/ pre-Chinese Virus. (I heard someone else in the GD forum talk about similar experiences where he lived). Granted, these are narrow sample sizes, but it does seem to indicate that a lot of people are driving around now even with a fair amount of business closures.. So, how does this now effect the price of oil ? I earlier thought $25/barrel was a fair price of oil in this environment, but frankly I'm surprised at the volume of cars on the road already... Perhaps, we can jump another $10/barrel before we plateau a bit.. Who knows.. And I'm intentionally disregarding the "supply side" of oil for the time being. OPEC+ is doing their part, and SA talked about cutting another 1mbpd just today. The U.S., for their part, has already cut around 1mbpd from its all the time highs reached in mid-March , which was about 13.1 mbpd.
I wrote this about 1.5 weeks ago... I recently came across an article that put some data behind my earlier "eyeball estimate" measuring the number of drivers on the road, and in turn, a reasonable approximation of oil/gas usage in this country. It looked at the number of Google Maps & Apple Maps usage by drivers in recent months for directions, etc.. Not surprisingly, in March, the app usage was down about -50% what it was in the year earlier period. A sample taken in late April suggested that usage of the apps was down by only about -25% compared to the year earlier period. How funny is that. That compares pretty well with my earlier estimate a few weeks ago saying " it was about 70-80% of the volume of cars compared w/ pre-Chinese Virus."
......OK, so what now with oil ? We've just hit the $35 barrel price I mentioned in my earlier post, and we have maybe ~75% daily traffic usage compared with pre-Chinese Virus. Oil was trading at $60 early in the year, and we are now operating at ~%75 demand best estimate. Given this , I wouldn't be surprised to see oil continue to run to the mid-40s in the current environment... ... But I have a hard time seeing oil demand (and prices) getting much better than that . Thinking through all of the new variables post Chinese Virus ; people working from home, people not working at all, decreased airline travel (big oil/fuel user), decreased trips to casinos, restaurants due of capacity restrictions, etc.... This should all keep oil/gas demand constrained, so there is a 'ceiling' IMHO in demand for the foreseeable future.., there's no way we get to close to $60 a barrel given this, but I think mid-$40s is possible. If we get there, I'm going to plan to sell my most risky oil stocks I bought just a few weeks ago that have run a bit (PE and FANG). My major integrated oil stocks are still sitting on losses, so I don't plan on touching them, and they pay good dividends, too.
The biggest risk to oil now is the daunting "second wave" of infections that have been discussed, or if OPEC does something stupid.
Let's see how this plays out, but I think oil has another +30% to run here in the short term....
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......OK, so what now with oil ? We've just hit the $35 barrel price I mentioned in my earlier post, and we have maybe ~75% daily traffic usage compared with pre-Chinese Virus. Oil was trading at $60 early in the year, and we are now operating at ~%75 demand best estimate. Given this , I wouldn't be surprised to see oil continue to run to the mid-40s in the current environment... ... But I have a hard time seeing oil demand (and prices) getting much better than that . Thinking through all of the new variables post Chinese Virus ; people working from home, people not working at all, decreased airline travel (big oil/fuel user), decreased trips to casinos, restaurants due of capacity restrictions, etc.... This should all keep oil/gas demand constrained, so there is a 'ceiling' IMHO in demand for the foreseeable future.., there's no way we get to close to $60 a barrel given this, but I think mid-$40s is possible. If we get there, I'm going to plan to sell my most risky oil stocks I bought just a few weeks ago that have run a bit (PE and FANG). My major integrated oil stocks are still sitting on losses, so I don't plan on touching them, and they pay good dividends, too.
The biggest risk to oil now is the daunting "second wave" of infections that have been discussed, or if OPEC does something stupid.
Let's see how this plays out, but I think oil has another +30% to run here in the short term....
I think a lot of people would be surprised to find out that TSLA is not in the S&P 500... However, it may be on the brink of being added. To be included, I read you must have four consecutive quarters of showing a profit , (among other criteria). They have 3 consecutive profitable quarters to date. This may help explain why Musk was so determined to get his Auto Plant back up and running this month.. If they get there, this would be another big Boost for TSLA and the stock, because all the S&P 500 index funds would be forced to buy the stock and include them in their holdings.
I told myself I'd never be a buyer of TSLA stock, but now, I may not have a choice ! Lol.
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I think a lot of people would be surprised to find out that TSLA is not in the S&P 500... However, it may be on the brink of being added. To be included, I read you must have four consecutive quarters of showing a profit , (among other criteria). They have 3 consecutive profitable quarters to date. This may help explain why Musk was so determined to get his Auto Plant back up and running this month.. If they get there, this would be another big Boost for TSLA and the stock, because all the S&P 500 index funds would be forced to buy the stock and include them in their holdings.
I told myself I'd never be a buyer of TSLA stock, but now, I may not have a choice ! Lol.
We've had some negative commentary over the last couple of days that seemed to have moved markets ; namely, Stanley Drunkenmiller, David Tepper, FED chairman Jay Powell, and finally, that Bozo CEO from Boeing. The first two talked about how the markets were overvalued (shocker !), and Powell talked a cautionary tone about the economic recovery (shocker!). How can the markets can be surprised by this ?? It just tells you how fragile investors are. And BTW, who are the "buyers" in today's markets ? Stock buybacks MUST be way down in the current crisis so it can't be big corporations (keep in mind they were the HUGE buyers in the market the last 10 years). Or Is it BIG institutional buyers ? If so, could they really have been caught offguard by their colleague's comments ? (i.e. Drunkenmiller & Tepper). Or is it the retail investor that has done most of the buying since the March Low ? That would be cause for concern if so ; they as a group are habitually terrible at market timing. BTW, I think most are numb to the idea of the "Fed Put" and wouldn't have responded with big buying at the March Low.. Would be curious to find out who the big buyers have been since the March Lows..
I came across an article the other day that may shed some light on this earlier question above... The article talked about the number of new trading accounts that were opened in Q1. These retail investors opened up something like 600k new accounts, just with Schwab alone in Q1. (it didn't mention what that % increase was). The article went on to say that a lot of investors were putting new money to work when the market fell in March because of the economic stimulus from the government. That strikes as a bit odd, both in timing, and in the ability of investors to put new money to work in the first place. Robinhood saw a lot of growth as well, and they cater a lot to the millennial crowd.. As an investor, I'm always skeptical as to what "the herd" is doing w/ their portfolio.
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
We've had some negative commentary over the last couple of days that seemed to have moved markets ; namely, Stanley Drunkenmiller, David Tepper, FED chairman Jay Powell, and finally, that Bozo CEO from Boeing. The first two talked about how the markets were overvalued (shocker !), and Powell talked a cautionary tone about the economic recovery (shocker!). How can the markets can be surprised by this ?? It just tells you how fragile investors are. And BTW, who are the "buyers" in today's markets ? Stock buybacks MUST be way down in the current crisis so it can't be big corporations (keep in mind they were the HUGE buyers in the market the last 10 years). Or Is it BIG institutional buyers ? If so, could they really have been caught offguard by their colleague's comments ? (i.e. Drunkenmiller & Tepper). Or is it the retail investor that has done most of the buying since the March Low ? That would be cause for concern if so ; they as a group are habitually terrible at market timing. BTW, I think most are numb to the idea of the "Fed Put" and wouldn't have responded with big buying at the March Low.. Would be curious to find out who the big buyers have been since the March Lows..
I came across an article the other day that may shed some light on this earlier question above... The article talked about the number of new trading accounts that were opened in Q1. These retail investors opened up something like 600k new accounts, just with Schwab alone in Q1. (it didn't mention what that % increase was). The article went on to say that a lot of investors were putting new money to work when the market fell in March because of the economic stimulus from the government. That strikes as a bit odd, both in timing, and in the ability of investors to put new money to work in the first place. Robinhood saw a lot of growth as well, and they cater a lot to the millennial crowd.. As an investor, I'm always skeptical as to what "the herd" is doing w/ their portfolio.
Does the market have tunnel vision or what ?? It seems to ignore just about all bad news, and pays attention to all the good news that comes along... the good vaccine news this week just as an example. The bad news is all around us with what main street is going through. We all know that. Buy why did the market completely ignore what's going on with Hong Kong, today? Their local Hang Seng Index there went down -5.5% overnight due to China talking about putting the clamps down on HK, but Wall Street could care less. That sure is puzzling !! Wall Street is not only ignoring bad economic news globally, it is completely ignoring bad political news, as well. China is only getting more aggressive with its rhetoric and its actions. I wouldn't be surprised if China did something significant in the foreseeable future w/ Hong Kong , such as taking away what independence remains in that country.
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Does the market have tunnel vision or what ?? It seems to ignore just about all bad news, and pays attention to all the good news that comes along... the good vaccine news this week just as an example. The bad news is all around us with what main street is going through. We all know that. Buy why did the market completely ignore what's going on with Hong Kong, today? Their local Hang Seng Index there went down -5.5% overnight due to China talking about putting the clamps down on HK, but Wall Street could care less. That sure is puzzling !! Wall Street is not only ignoring bad economic news globally, it is completely ignoring bad political news, as well. China is only getting more aggressive with its rhetoric and its actions. I wouldn't be surprised if China did something significant in the foreseeable future w/ Hong Kong , such as taking away what independence remains in that country.
It's been a slow week on this board, but yes....a nice week for investors! I wouldn't put too much stock in a jump in total accounts. If you look at Robinhood specifically, the average account balance is a joke.....not much real wealth there to be found. Robinhood is mostly a place for the rookie investor to get started with investing. I have 1% of a BTC there and that's all and would never use RH for serious investing. Show me a RH investor, and I'll show you a rookie investor that has no clue 80% of the time.
600K new Schwab accounts is more interesting to me, but again, tell me in dollars...not accounts.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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It's been a slow week on this board, but yes....a nice week for investors! I wouldn't put too much stock in a jump in total accounts. If you look at Robinhood specifically, the average account balance is a joke.....not much real wealth there to be found. Robinhood is mostly a place for the rookie investor to get started with investing. I have 1% of a BTC there and that's all and would never use RH for serious investing. Show me a RH investor, and I'll show you a rookie investor that has no clue 80% of the time.
600K new Schwab accounts is more interesting to me, but again, tell me in dollars...not accounts.
To the moon for stocks !! Lol. I could copy and paste the same thing from Friday and it would apply again, today. Markets up big time today. Today was a bit more unusual than most any other "up" day recently ; NAS was a serious laggard only up +0.17%. S&P was up nicely at +1.23%. Value funds were up big today, +2.20% for the VYM. All in all, seemed a "Catch up Trade" kind of day for all things that have underperformed, particularly oils and banks.
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To the moon for stocks !! Lol. I could copy and paste the same thing from Friday and it would apply again, today. Markets up big time today. Today was a bit more unusual than most any other "up" day recently ; NAS was a serious laggard only up +0.17%. S&P was up nicely at +1.23%. Value funds were up big today, +2.20% for the VYM. All in all, seemed a "Catch up Trade" kind of day for all things that have underperformed, particularly oils and banks.
It was looking like another solid day for stocks today , until it was announced that Trump will hold a press conference tomorrow about China. Seriously, how are the markets caught off guard by this news ? Did investors really think China's actions would go without consequence ? Hong Kong will soon become a basket case, and will begin to lose its recognition as a big global financial hub, as it loses its autonomy to China homeland aggression.
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It was looking like another solid day for stocks today , until it was announced that Trump will hold a press conference tomorrow about China. Seriously, how are the markets caught off guard by this news ? Did investors really think China's actions would go without consequence ? Hong Kong will soon become a basket case, and will begin to lose its recognition as a big global financial hub, as it loses its autonomy to China homeland aggression.
Markets fully expected a more forceful response from Trump, today. What we got was a nice recovery in stocks toward the end of the day as Trump didn't apply any sanctions, or a ramp up/cancellation of the Phase I trade deal. IMHO, the Phase I deal is still just a piece of paper to the Chinese, with no intent on following through, but Trump didn't follow-through on any big consequences for the China takeover of HK autonomy... So, the Ball is in China's court now....
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Markets fully expected a more forceful response from Trump, today. What we got was a nice recovery in stocks toward the end of the day as Trump didn't apply any sanctions, or a ramp up/cancellation of the Phase I trade deal. IMHO, the Phase I deal is still just a piece of paper to the Chinese, with no intent on following through, but Trump didn't follow-through on any big consequences for the China takeover of HK autonomy... So, the Ball is in China's court now....
China and Hong Kong are still the flash points.... as bad as these national riots are in the U.S., they should have a small impact on the stock market and the companies within...
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China and Hong Kong are still the flash points.... as bad as these national riots are in the U.S., they should have a small impact on the stock market and the companies within...
I'm amazed how this market seems oblivious to all that is happening right now........virus & the unemployment it has caused, rioting/looting that has destroyed many areas........just keeps chugging along though. After hitting a half-court shot in late March, I'm tempted to pull back out for a while. I hate playing "chicken" with the market, but I'd also hate to see my gains erased.
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I'm amazed how this market seems oblivious to all that is happening right now........virus & the unemployment it has caused, rioting/looting that has destroyed many areas........just keeps chugging along though. After hitting a half-court shot in late March, I'm tempted to pull back out for a while. I hate playing "chicken" with the market, but I'd also hate to see my gains erased.
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