Mugg, it truly is astonishing to see the comeback in stocks since the March low. The market is supposed to hate uncertainty, but here we have it all over the place with China-U.S. tensions, Chinese Virus concerns, and a new destabilizer with all these riots... I frankly don't get it, but I stay mostly invested in the markets through it all. What's also frankly a little concerning is that virtually all the talking heads in the financial community are also saying the same thing. That always gets me a little concerned when everyone is thinking the same thing. Lol.
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Mugg, it truly is astonishing to see the comeback in stocks since the March low. The market is supposed to hate uncertainty, but here we have it all over the place with China-U.S. tensions, Chinese Virus concerns, and a new destabilizer with all these riots... I frankly don't get it, but I stay mostly invested in the markets through it all. What's also frankly a little concerning is that virtually all the talking heads in the financial community are also saying the same thing. That always gets me a little concerned when everyone is thinking the same thing. Lol.
To the moon for stocks !! Lol. I could copy and paste the same thing from Friday and it would apply again, today. Markets up big time today. Today was a bit more unusual than most any other "up" day recently ; NAS was a serious laggard only up +0.17%. S&P was up nicely at +1.23%. Value funds were up big today, +2.20% for the VYM. All in all, seemed a "Catch up Trade" kind of day for all things that have underperformed, particularly oils and banks.
....I typed the above on May 26th. More of the same today, and that is good news !! NAS did better today (+0.78%), compared to before, but both the S&P and Value Funds hit it again out of the park (+1.36% and +1.96%, respectively). Both Oil & Banks were huge on the upside today, and that helped value funds (ETFs), particularly the VYM.
The market continues to have a heavy bias to the upside . I get the Fed response back in March, but this recovery borders on bonkers with ridiculous valuations ! I tell you, we better get a V-shaped recovery , because the market has already priced that in, and then some. But the banks are a concern in the immediate future, because 40M people out of work can't be good for their credit card and mortgage businesses. Late July is going to be an important milestone in the market, because that's when the additional $600 weekly support from the Federal Government ends for those unemployed.. What happens in the beginning of August ? Do things magically get better for these 40M people. The market discounts ALL bad news right now , and views things through rose colored glasses. A great majority of the people won't find a job that easily IMHO. It just doesn't work out like that. Some Companies may choose to learn to do more with less.. particularly with white collar workers and what little manufacturing jobs remained in this country.
We shall see..
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
To the moon for stocks !! Lol. I could copy and paste the same thing from Friday and it would apply again, today. Markets up big time today. Today was a bit more unusual than most any other "up" day recently ; NAS was a serious laggard only up +0.17%. S&P was up nicely at +1.23%. Value funds were up big today, +2.20% for the VYM. All in all, seemed a "Catch up Trade" kind of day for all things that have underperformed, particularly oils and banks.
....I typed the above on May 26th. More of the same today, and that is good news !! NAS did better today (+0.78%), compared to before, but both the S&P and Value Funds hit it again out of the park (+1.36% and +1.96%, respectively). Both Oil & Banks were huge on the upside today, and that helped value funds (ETFs), particularly the VYM.
The market continues to have a heavy bias to the upside . I get the Fed response back in March, but this recovery borders on bonkers with ridiculous valuations ! I tell you, we better get a V-shaped recovery , because the market has already priced that in, and then some. But the banks are a concern in the immediate future, because 40M people out of work can't be good for their credit card and mortgage businesses. Late July is going to be an important milestone in the market, because that's when the additional $600 weekly support from the Federal Government ends for those unemployed.. What happens in the beginning of August ? Do things magically get better for these 40M people. The market discounts ALL bad news right now , and views things through rose colored glasses. A great majority of the people won't find a job that easily IMHO. It just doesn't work out like that. Some Companies may choose to learn to do more with less.. particularly with white collar workers and what little manufacturing jobs remained in this country.
The move in Oil the last couple of months has continued nicely.. I'm sticking to my $45 target for oil here in the short term before I begin to take a little profits from both PE & FANG. I think things over the next few days could be a little contentious , though, with the OPEC+ meeting. But I'm sticking with it. I've heard Iraq hasn't been living up to their production cuts, but I'm not sure that is enough to throw the whole thing in a tizzy. The big producers (Russia, SA, U.S.) have all stuck to their production cut agreements as far as I know. The U.S. has cut their production levels from 13mbpd (a record earlier this year), to around 11mbpd today, I believe. I think the production cuts will remain in the U.S. and OPEC+, and SA may give a little beating to Iraq for their actions. Lol.
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The move in Oil the last couple of months has continued nicely.. I'm sticking to my $45 target for oil here in the short term before I begin to take a little profits from both PE & FANG. I think things over the next few days could be a little contentious , though, with the OPEC+ meeting. But I'm sticking with it. I've heard Iraq hasn't been living up to their production cuts, but I'm not sure that is enough to throw the whole thing in a tizzy. The big producers (Russia, SA, U.S.) have all stuck to their production cut agreements as far as I know. The U.S. has cut their production levels from 13mbpd (a record earlier this year), to around 11mbpd today, I believe. I think the production cuts will remain in the U.S. and OPEC+, and SA may give a little beating to Iraq for their actions. Lol.
After catching a lot of the bottom in late March, I gotta take some profits. The 40% run-up was stellar........but I can't help thinking there's a correction coming. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But there's just too much turbulence to think this can continue to new all time highs right now.
I'm gonna keep XOM though.
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After catching a lot of the bottom in late March, I gotta take some profits. The 40% run-up was stellar........but I can't help thinking there's a correction coming. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But there's just too much turbulence to think this can continue to new all time highs right now.
Mugg... the recovery is nothing short of astounding. Get this.. the S&P 500 just recorded its best 50 day performance... Ever! And The unemployment rate is supposed hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% tomorrow on Friday. No big deal, though. The futures market already has the S&P up another +0.85% for tomorrow's trading. No one could blame anyone for taking a little profit here. Well done Mugg...
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Mugg... the recovery is nothing short of astounding. Get this.. the S&P 500 just recorded its best 50 day performance... Ever! And The unemployment rate is supposed hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% tomorrow on Friday. No big deal, though. The futures market already has the S&P up another +0.85% for tomorrow's trading. No one could blame anyone for taking a little profit here. Well done Mugg...
The FED is doing an excellent job to pop up the stock market. I am pretty sure now that the stock market has been inversely proportional to the real economy. Fundamentals do not matter anymore, only the FED's printing press. So just follow the FED and you will be good, until something breaks.
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The FED is doing an excellent job to pop up the stock market. I am pretty sure now that the stock market has been inversely proportional to the real economy. Fundamentals do not matter anymore, only the FED's printing press. So just follow the FED and you will be good, until something breaks.
For sure, the FED has distorted market prices. Every metric you look at will show stocks overpriced..
Whatever happened to Berkshire Hathaway ? They sold all their airlines positions a month or so ago, sold their Travelers insurance position, sold Goldman Sachs, and slightly reduced their JPM position. I can understand the last 3 decisions with lower rates for longer, dealmakings getting deferred... , but selling ALL the airlines ? That looks like a classic capitulation, and something Buffett always railed against.. After all, he's the guy that says to buy when there is blood in the streets. They capitulated Big Time. This doesn't sound like Warren... I haven't heard anyone talk about this, but I wonder just how much decision-making he is allowing some of his younger stockpickers to make (Ted & Todd specifically). These younger guys are the ones that got Buffett into Apple to begin with (remember, he had always stayed away from tech), and AAPL has been a great performer for them. I willing to bet these guys are starting to have more control over Berkshire's stock portfolio, and lobbied for this sector to be sold. Who knows.. I'm just surmising, but Buffett and sidekick Charlie Munger are really getting up there in age, and Perhaps they are handing over more of the reigns to the younger guys ...
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For sure, the FED has distorted market prices. Every metric you look at will show stocks overpriced..
Whatever happened to Berkshire Hathaway ? They sold all their airlines positions a month or so ago, sold their Travelers insurance position, sold Goldman Sachs, and slightly reduced their JPM position. I can understand the last 3 decisions with lower rates for longer, dealmakings getting deferred... , but selling ALL the airlines ? That looks like a classic capitulation, and something Buffett always railed against.. After all, he's the guy that says to buy when there is blood in the streets. They capitulated Big Time. This doesn't sound like Warren... I haven't heard anyone talk about this, but I wonder just how much decision-making he is allowing some of his younger stockpickers to make (Ted & Todd specifically). These younger guys are the ones that got Buffett into Apple to begin with (remember, he had always stayed away from tech), and AAPL has been a great performer for them. I willing to bet these guys are starting to have more control over Berkshire's stock portfolio, and lobbied for this sector to be sold. Who knows.. I'm just surmising, but Buffett and sidekick Charlie Munger are really getting up there in age, and Perhaps they are handing over more of the reigns to the younger guys ...
I ended up selling half my energy positions in PE & FANG, today. They had a nice run up these last couple of months, almost hitting a double, and today each of them was up almost +15%. Brent Crude closed at $42/barrel today... That's close enough to the mid-40s short-term oil target I'd been discussing in recent weeks. Of course I could turn out to be very wrong, but I still see limited upside from here in oil prices. Contrary to what I posted just 2 days ago, there is news percolating that some of the U.S. producers (EOG resources) are starting to plan on pumping some of these shut-in wells. That could be a huge disrupter, throwing OPEC+ for a loop once again. All it takes is for one of these big producers (Russia, SA, U.S.) to start increasing production, and we could be in a for a wild ride again (to the downside). In any event, I sold only half the positions as a hedge, and kept the full positions in my big integrated plays. These big guys pay a nice dividend, so I'm willing to hold on to them for awhile longer, even if they get taken along for a wild ride.
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I ended up selling half my energy positions in PE & FANG, today. They had a nice run up these last couple of months, almost hitting a double, and today each of them was up almost +15%. Brent Crude closed at $42/barrel today... That's close enough to the mid-40s short-term oil target I'd been discussing in recent weeks. Of course I could turn out to be very wrong, but I still see limited upside from here in oil prices. Contrary to what I posted just 2 days ago, there is news percolating that some of the U.S. producers (EOG resources) are starting to plan on pumping some of these shut-in wells. That could be a huge disrupter, throwing OPEC+ for a loop once again. All it takes is for one of these big producers (Russia, SA, U.S.) to start increasing production, and we could be in a for a wild ride again (to the downside). In any event, I sold only half the positions as a hedge, and kept the full positions in my big integrated plays. These big guys pay a nice dividend, so I'm willing to hold on to them for awhile longer, even if they get taken along for a wild ride.
Nicely done, Artdb... I hope you were invested in SQ during that time. Nothing wrong with a +50% return. I will say I'm not a big fan of Jack Dorsey butting his head into the political arena. He seems to do it more than most business leaders, and also I don't like the fact the he is running two public companies. His attention seems to be with Twitter, and as a SQ investor, I would not like that. But well done on SQ call !
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Nicely done, Artdb... I hope you were invested in SQ during that time. Nothing wrong with a +50% return. I will say I'm not a big fan of Jack Dorsey butting his head into the political arena. He seems to do it more than most business leaders, and also I don't like the fact the he is running two public companies. His attention seems to be with Twitter, and as a SQ investor, I would not like that. But well done on SQ call !
Wow, what a difference a week makes. The value trade that had been working in recent weeks (Oil & Bank stocks particularly) have been hit particularly hard. Value momentum is getting shifted back to growth again, and particularly Big Tech. The NAS just hit another all time high, and eclipsed the 10k+ level.
What will be worth more in 5 years, 10 years ... The Nasdaq or Bitcoin ? It's a fair bet. Both are near 10k levels...
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Wow, what a difference a week makes. The value trade that had been working in recent weeks (Oil & Bank stocks particularly) have been hit particularly hard. Value momentum is getting shifted back to growth again, and particularly Big Tech. The NAS just hit another all time high, and eclipsed the 10k+ level.
What will be worth more in 5 years, 10 years ... The Nasdaq or Bitcoin ? It's a fair bet. Both are near 10k levels...
Wow, what a difference a week makes. The value trade that had been working in recent weeks (Oil & Bank stocks particularly) have been hit particularly hard. Value momentum is getting shifted back to growth again, and particularly Big Tech. The NAS just hit another all time high, and eclipsed the 10k+ level. What will be worth more in 5 years, 10 years ... The Nasdaq or Bitcoin ? It's a fair bet. Both are near 10k levels...
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Wow, what a difference a week makes. The value trade that had been working in recent weeks (Oil & Bank stocks particularly) have been hit particularly hard. Value momentum is getting shifted back to growth again, and particularly Big Tech. The NAS just hit another all time high, and eclipsed the 10k+ level. What will be worth more in 5 years, 10 years ... The Nasdaq or Bitcoin ? It's a fair bet. Both are near 10k levels...
Well, I certainly want Trump to win, but I really don't have a lot of confidence right now that he will win. There is so much upheaval in our lives this year (Chinese Virus, BLM), but he was not responsible for either. We had the lowest unemployment rate in the last 50 years just a short 4 months ago. Now, it's among the highest. I just don't have a lot of confidence in the general public doing the right thing and voting for Trump. I will always vote for a freer form of government w/ less intervention. Power to the People ! Dems don't understand this. They think power to the people resides in anarchy and utter disregard for the rule of law.
As for where the markets go, people put too much emphasis in what the markets will do based on who is elected. The data bears this out... Economic conditions and company profits will have greater bearing on the market than political undertones.
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Well, I certainly want Trump to win, but I really don't have a lot of confidence right now that he will win. There is so much upheaval in our lives this year (Chinese Virus, BLM), but he was not responsible for either. We had the lowest unemployment rate in the last 50 years just a short 4 months ago. Now, it's among the highest. I just don't have a lot of confidence in the general public doing the right thing and voting for Trump. I will always vote for a freer form of government w/ less intervention. Power to the People ! Dems don't understand this. They think power to the people resides in anarchy and utter disregard for the rule of law.
As for where the markets go, people put too much emphasis in what the markets will do based on who is elected. The data bears this out... Economic conditions and company profits will have greater bearing on the market than political undertones.
Wow, the market is completely rolling over today after being up nicely. That is a BIG negative signal, particularly after such a Huge down day yesterday. If memory serves correct from back in March, BIG down days were followed by positive days just about each time, particularly when the previous day was down significantly. If the day closes down big today, it will be interesting to see how much follow through we have to the downside.
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Wow, the market is completely rolling over today after being up nicely. That is a BIG negative signal, particularly after such a Huge down day yesterday. If memory serves correct from back in March, BIG down days were followed by positive days just about each time, particularly when the previous day was down significantly. If the day closes down big today, it will be interesting to see how much follow through we have to the downside.
Stocks came back solidly earlier in the day, and are holding on to some pretty solid gains in the last few minutes before the close. Not a good week for the markets, but it was needed to blow some steam off these markets.
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Stocks came back solidly earlier in the day, and are holding on to some pretty solid gains in the last few minutes before the close. Not a good week for the markets, but it was needed to blow some steam off these markets.
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