KScapping write ups and plays archived #2

Southern Mississippi Vs. Nevada

2011 competition: I give the slightest edge in tougher schedule to Nevada.

Over achieving, and Under Achieving 2011: I give an edge here to S.Miss with their 11-2 record vs. the Wolfpack’s 7-5

Game focus:  I give the Wolfpack a HUGE/Hands Down advantage in this area (see below)

Bowl (Big Game) History:

Nevada:  is 4-7 since their first bowl appearance in 1948.  They are going to their 7^th  bowl in the last 7seasons—and their 3^rd bowl in Hawaii in that recent span.  The Pack is 2-4 in Bowl play since 2005.

S. Miss:  are no strangers to post season Bowl games; they are 9-11 all-time in bowl games, and went to bowl games all but 2001 and 2010 in the new millennium, and winning 5 of those contests.  Fedora is (w/ S. Miss) 1-2, and not winning a bowl game since 2008.

NOTES:

Southern Miss higher ups are calling this trip to Hawaii as a “once in a lifetime” ordeal, that is not the case for most of the Wolf Packs players.  All but Nevada freshmen have been to Honolulu’s Aloha Stadium—the team has played there 4 times since 2007.  None of the  So. Miss players have played in Honolulu in their college careers—obviously—the Golden Eagles last team visit to Hawaii was in 1977.

Player/Coaches Quotes: 

Nevada’s Defensive Lineman Brett Roy stated “We have been to paradise before, and we lost in paradise, so we know it’s a business trip”

S.Miss’s  Sr. Linebacker Ronnie Thorton “coming up here we understood that this would be a once in a lifetime opportunity to come to Hawaii”  and “this may be our last time being together”  “So we just wanted to come out and have a little fun  and spent time with each other.  It’s turned out great thus far, and we have some pretty interesting upcoming events that we’re supposed to attend.

S.Miss’s Sr. QB Austin Davis “and a lot of guys, this will be their only time to ever come to Hawaii and experience this, and I think that was the big deciding factor to be here, and we’ll get to play a good football team on Saturday, so that will be good”  >>> if you were to guess, what sounds like the ‘priority’ to Davis, the game, or the experience? Hmmmm<<<<<<.

Motivation:  Southern Miss’s senior classmen could win their 34^th on Saturday and that would tie the program’s best win record in a 4 year period.  This 12^th win for the season would be the first of Southern S.Miss’s history—no S. Miss team has ever won 11 either.  There is certainly a lot to be accomplished by beating the Wolfpack on Saturday.

Nevada:  The WP believes they are a better team than their 7-5 record indicates; they have a valid argument to this fact.  3 of the Pack’s losses were by a combined score of 8 pts (Utah St, Louisiana Tech, and Texas Tech).  Two of those opponents were bowl teams (2 of those were bowl teams this seaon).  The Wolfpack wants to go out and prove their worth to a national audience on Saturday.

Potential Distractions: S. Miss’s HC Larry Fedora has been a part of the recruitment of nearly every player on the S.Miss squad.  I am sure the Sr. players are not too concerned about his accepting the position as HC for North Carolina (officially announced on Dec. 7^th), but what about the freshmen to Juniors?  Many of these kids made their important destination decisions based on playing for Fedora and his patented spread offense.  How many of these kids have put feeler’s out for potential transfers before next season?  How many are upset, or feel ‘slighted’?  If this was announced officially on 12/7, then how much of Fedora’s focus was on this Bowl game strategy for the weeks prior/after the announcement?   It is unclear how many assistant coaches Fedora is bringing with him to NC, but I am sure all this is known in tight circles.  Of the coaches that are going with Fedora; they would be 100% focused on this bowl game …why?  Were they lobbying to go with Fedora in the last month?  What about the coaches that are to remain @ So. Miss;  will Ellis Johnson keep any/all on staff, will he bring on his own staff as many do, are these remaining coaches focused on the game because it is the ‘right thing’ or are they spending most of their time sending out resumes and calling contacts for employment next season?  Hmmm

Key Players in this match-up: 

Nevada:  

Brett Roy (DT) will be a player you will probably be watching on Sundays next season.  This game will have a lot to do with exactly what round/pick he goes in the draft.  This kid is not in Hawaii enjoying the scenary; I expect a big game from Roy.

O/U: the Hawaii Bowl winners (history) have averaged scoring 48+ pts.

Now that we have the intangibles out of the way, let’s break down the tangible matchups:

Both of these teams tout impressive offensive squads.

Wolfpack has the 5^th ranked O vs S. Miss’s 31^st ranked Defense.

Golden Eagles have the 13^th ranked Offense vs Nevada’s 52^nd ranked Defense.

Golden Eagles Passing game:  Led by Austin Davis (QB), averages gaining 58.09% of their total offensive yards in the air, while passing only 48% of the their total plays.  Davis’s TD/INT ratio is 28/11, and has been simply stellar this season.  His season passer rating is @ 142.4, and his worst rating was in the season opener (vs Louisianna Tech  102). 

The real question is how well can Nevada slow down S. Miss’s offense?: some say that Fedora’s spread is the best in college football—that distinction goes to Oregon..period.  I think Fedora’s system has caused Davis to look better than he actually is, but it works for him/them quite well.  Oregon’s spread O killed Nevada; The game was basically over in the 2^nd quarter.  To be fair, it was the first game of the season, and the only team to score over half those points vs Nevada’s D this season is Fresno State (38, but Nevada won that contest)  Oregon was the best team they faced all season. 

Interesting ATS: Nevada is ATS 5-7 , and 2-1 ATS as a dog, while S. Miss is 8-4 ATS and 4-3 ATS as 8 or more pt favorites.

Squares and Sharps: Squares are heavy on S. Miss, and there does not appear to be any reason to think the Sharps disagree.

Interesting fact:  In games that Nevada was the dog, they either covered, or the game went Over.

Summary:  Let’s look at what both teams are going to try to do, and figure out who will be most likely to impose their will on the other. 

I had this game pegged/planned on Friday when the line was Nevada +9 and O/U 64, and anticipated line movements continuing to climb; bad gamble. 

Fedora has nothing at all to lose; he has a monster contract with NC, and would want to just look good in this game—looking good would be showcasing offensive prowess.  Chris Ault will be smart enough to focus on TOP.  Nevada is used to controlling TOP 34:42 per game, while S. Miss is used to the opposite 28:35.  Nevada may have to go to the air a bit more than usual because of S. Miss’s run D—ranked 15^th in the nation in ave. yards per carry (3.3, and down to 2.4 in L3).  Ault’s Pistol Offense should be able to negate that deficiency will his two headed QB attack using Fajardo—efficient passer with 11 rushing TD’s, though he is returning today after an ankle injury—and Lantrip, whose passing game is stellar with 8.8 ave per attempt, 61%, and a ratio of 10/6 (TD / INT). 

These teams are very much equal in Special teams play, sacks allowed/D sacks, take aways/give aways, amongst many others.

The major differences in these two teams statistically are:  1) S. Miss scores faster than Nevada 2) Nevada runs the ball a little better than S. Miss, but S.Miss stops the run much better than Nevada does.

Who’s will being imposed can we count on?  Normally, S. Miss; they are a better team, but today?  I don’t see how S. Miss is 100% focused on this game; many of these kids know that Fedora (and possibly many other asst coaches) will not be their coaches next season, many of S. Miss’s players seem to mention the ‘hanging out in Hawaii’, and ‘extracuricular activties’ before they mention the game, Nevada wants to win in Hawaii this time—been there a few times, Fedora & Coaches doubtfully focused completely on this game plan.  I think Ault’s ‘slower game’ will be predominant, S. Miss will be more likely to turn the ball over (focus).

Southern Mississippi vs Nevada Under 63 

Southern Mississippi -7

On my personal plays I am placing half the wager on Nevada—Under is my primary play.

PRATO

SILENT BUT VERY EFFECTIVE

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