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An Underdog Trend I've Noticed

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Legend
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Posted: #1
I'm mainly a favorite parlay kinda guy when it comes to UFC and I've definitely learned a lesson when doing this. In the 2-3 prelims that are online (used to be Facebook fights but now on UFC.tv), the big favorites have lost more times than they have won. I wish I had old lines to put a record to this observation but I only have a few that I can remember of late but...

Ernest Chavez +250 over Yosdenis Cedeno and Oliveira at +365 fits the bill. I think if you take both, you'll earn at least a split. Personally, I think Chavez will be the winner here and, in that case, I wouldn't try and chase Oliveira because I think Koch will win that fight.

Now I could be off here. Maybe my memory is selective because I remember over the past year telling myself to never take a big favorite who fights in the online prelims ever again and then seeing Krylov beat Harris last month as a sizable dog reminded me. Now Chavez just "feels" like someone who will continue that trend.

Just something to think about if he or Oliveira wins. Pocket a couple bucks if this trend is actually real. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2

I almost always make plays on the UFC underdogs on anycard.  Unless its a true professional (GSP) or a massive favorite (Silva last card)  Cards like the one where Overreem lost to Big nog (+600)  I have cleaned up on (I bet everydog on that main card and came out up BIG)   Its also hate paying juice

Putting $50 on 4x prelim underdogs at +300 in the ufc you are bound to hit at least one.  People that fight to eat (Brazilians) and the stone faced Russians are usually good $$ on the undercards because the are often unknown to the world.  Joe Silva will pair an upcoming TUF fighter oftern against an Eastern European fighter no one in the US nows about and the juice is always on the TUF alum who grew up in suburbia even though the Eastern European ate granite and dandelions growing up.

As far as tonight, I like Chavez's chances.. I am giving little chance to oliveira even though Koch lost 3of4.  Those 3x losses came from top ranked people and that experience will pay off tonight.   

-Just my take.. go get em tonight !!!  

 
Legend
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Posted: #3
I hear that. We do bet differently, however, as I pick and choose my favs. But when these guys are unknown (to me anyway), I won't just throw a -300+ fav in a prelim into a parlay. Usually those underdogs who win are guys without wikipedia pages .

I, too, like Chavez's changes more than Oliveira for the reasons you mentioned. Koch is a guy I know. Usually these big favorites are guys I have never heard before but get huge lines (also, my knowledge is more than a casual fan's but I couldn't tell you who a fighter like Chavez actually is). So I guess the common fan who doesn't know of the big favorite, like Cedeno, makes this a play under the trend.

But I guess we'll see in time. Good Luck to you. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Good place to get information is on the underground.  The UG has pages on all fighters and fight locations.  Good resource if you are not sure of the history of a fighter. I cant see many of the Crazy Russian fighters having Wikipedia pages...
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
This is such a dumb with no statistical information backing behind it.

And the even worse thing is, if one of these two guys do win, Sparky will fall victim to the confirmation bias, and think he's really on to something.... again with no statistical backing.
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

This is such a dumb with no statistical information backing behind it.

And the even worse thing is, if one of these two guys do win, Sparky will fall victim to the confirmation bias, and think he's really on to something.... again with no statistical backing.

I agree with you 100%. I wish I could find past lines to back it up, which is why I posted "Now I could be off here. Maybe my memory is selective because I remember over the past year telling myself to never take a big favorite who fights in the online prelims ever again."

Trust me...I don't post around here much so I'm not going to gloat or anything if Chavez wins. I'm just trying to contribute. I didn't know that was frowned upon. Guess this place really has changed.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:


I agree with you 100%. I wish I could find past lines to back it up, which is why I posted "Now I could be off here. Maybe my memory is selective because I remember over the past year telling myself to never take a big favorite who fights in the online prelims ever again."

Trust me...I don't post around here much so I'm not going to gloat or anything if Chavez wins. I'm just trying to contribute. I didn't know that was frowned upon. Guess this place really has changed.

You should gloat or be happy if you win your Chavez bet.  I hope you do win money.  

But the premise of "underdogs on fight pass win all the time, I have no proof of it, give me Chavez +250" is pretty novice at best.
 
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Posted: #8
I got that. And I wish I could back up the theory. I guess this thread will be the starting point of it. Hopefully it's a profitable trend that we can all make money off of. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9

I bet a UFC fights at +400-600 and hit them.  No way am I putting $$ on a basketball game +350....

A Punching chance is not beating the spurs at home.... 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
hope you took chavez....
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Now, for the record, at this point, I wouldn't touch Oliveira. I didn't like him from the start because Koch is a known guy.

Congrats if you took Chavez. Split decision...glad I couldn't watch it. Would of had a heart attack.
 
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Posted: #12
And by "known guy" I mean to common folk like me. 
 
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Posted: #13
An early look shows that Will Campuzano at +350 fits the bill here as well as Robert Whiteford at +180.

Same course of action here. If the trend continues it should at least be a split. Not sure how I plan on playing here. Scoggins is a guy I know NOTHING about as a slightly above average UFC fan so for many like me, people may throw him into a parlay and get hurt for it. 

I'll definitely be taking Whiteford but I'll wait for Saturday and hope the line movement works in my favor. If that hits, I may put some on Campuzano but I'll take it one at a time.
 
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Posted: #14
Scoggins is a solid prospect.  He already had a perfect performance in his UFC debut with a dominating rd 1 TKO and he knows what he has to do to beat Campuzano, and is better than him in every area. Unorthodox but elite striking, wrestling, subs, transitions, he's got it.  He's also very young and knows what position he's in.

Whitford/Pineda I'm not as sure.
 
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Posted: #15
Scoggins should be the better fighter but Campuzano may be able to squeak out a questionable decision or catch Scoggins in a submission if an opening is presented. Unfortunately, the odds seem pretty accurate there.
Whiteford/Pineda is more interesting. In Whiteford's UFC debut he played right into Jimy Hettes's game despite having success on the feet. He seems to have respectable striking and grappling and should match up competitively with Pineda. However, Pineda is the rightful favorite and I don't see value in Whiteford at these odds (with what I know).
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by ctm1985:

Scoggins is a solid prospect.  He already had a perfect performance in his UFC debut with a dominating rd 1 TKO and he knows what he has to do to beat Campuzano, and is better than him in every area. Unorthodox but elite striking, wrestling, subs, transitions, he's got it.  He's also very young and knows what position he's in.

Whitford/Pineda I'm not as sure.

Well all that certainly explains why the line is what it is. Sometimes that knowledge is valuable and sometimes it's a detriment. I remember Campuzano's last fight against Pettis and I can't remember if I thought he looked good or if I just overhyped Pettis and, having money on Pettis, may have expected a better performance from him. Definitely a nice line, regardless, for Campuzano.

Updated lines:
Campuzano +385
Whiteford +190
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by skinnyguy88:

Scoggins should be the better fighter but Campuzano may be able to squeak out a questionable decision or catch Scoggins in a submission if an opening is presented. Unfortunately, the odds seem pretty accurate there.
Whiteford/Pineda is more interesting. In Whiteford's UFC debut he played right into Jimy Hettes's game despite having success on the feet. He seems to have respectable striking and grappling and should match up competitively with Pineda. However, Pineda is the rightful favorite and I don't see value in Whiteford at these odds (with what I know).

Speaking of Hettes, and nothing in regards to this trend, I'll be taking my hometown guy in Bermudez because I'm a big fan of these Long Island fighters (with the exception of Costa lately).

As for Whiteford/Pineda...it's not a big return if you take him and Camp and split but it's money. Of course...IF they split (or somehow both win).
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Sparky10191:


Well all that certainly explains why the line is what it is. Sometimes that knowledge is valuable and sometimes it's a detriment. I remember Campuzano's last fight against Pettis and I can't remember if I thought he looked good or if I just overhyped Pettis and, having money on Pettis, may have expected a better performance from him. Definitely a nice line, regardless, for Campuzano.

Updated lines:
Campuzano +385
Whiteford +190

I think Scoggins is the real deal and better than Sergio Pettis. I put him in a parlay with some "not" props I feel confident in.
 
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Posted: #19
Scoggins is now up to -530 with Camp getting +418 at 5dimes. I'm not going in for UFC.tv but I would like to see Scoggins fight.
 
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Posted: #20
Alright. So I took Whiteford at +180. Missed out on the extra 10 cents but it is what it is. Depending on that outcome, I'll think about the Camp pick. I love the "value" at +450 but the hype for Scoggins that gives him this line is scary. If Whiteford wins I MAY put half a unit on Camp but if Whiteford loses...I'll be putting a unit on him.

I know...it sounds insane and has nothing to do with either fighter's skills or experience or anything but if it ain't broke...don't fix it.

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Icculus:

I almost always make plays on the UFC underdogs on anycard.  Unless its a true professional (GSP) or a massive favorite (Silva last card)  Cards like the one where Overreem lost to Big nog (+600)  I have cleaned up on (I bet everydog on that main card and came out up BIG)   Its also hate paying juice

Putting $50 on 4x prelim underdogs at +300 in the ufc you are bound to hit at least one.  People that fight to eat (Brazilians) and the stone faced Russians are usually good $$ on the undercards because the are often unknown to the world.  Joe Silva will pair an upcoming TUF fighter oftern against an Eastern European fighter no one in the US nows about and the juice is always on the TUF alum who grew up in suburbia even though the Eastern European ate granite and dandelions growing up.

As far as tonight, I like Chavez's chances.. I am giving little chance to oliveira even though Koch lost 3of4.  Those 3x losses came from top ranked people and that experience will pay off tonight.   

-Just my take.. go get em tonight !!!  



You come off as cocky rather than someone just looking to share info with a humble success story.
 
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Posted: #22
Beacuse Whiteford won I'm not going to go against the hype of Scoggins. A quarter unit even looks tempting at +510 for Camp but I'll take my money and run.
 
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Posted: #23
Scoggings is only 21? Crazy. I'm not watching the fight but according to twitter he's all energy. I'm sure he'll be on a tv prelims fight next time out. Can't wait to see it.
 
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Posted: #24
Yea he looked really good! Great gas tank and really good standup...dominated all 3 rounds
 
 
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Posted: #25
Godofredo Castro +220 is the only one to fit the bill on Sunday. Never heard of Noad Lahat but I know he's a prospect who likes to choke guys out. But Brazilians fighting out of Brazil always deserve more respect, imo. Can't say it's helped him much, though, considering he's only 1-3 in the UFC with all his fights coming in Brazil.

But hey...at this value for a "vet" fighting in Brazil against a guy who has never fought in that type of atmosphere before...I'm a little more confident with the trend picking Castro. However...there's no opportunity for a split in this one so there's no chance to chase. But if the trend usually calls for a split, then I'll take my chances here.
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