If you didn't chase the win (like I haven't since making this thread), then you are 2-0 +430.
I'll monitor the line but I don't think Castro will get much more value from here but I know nothing of Lahat (like I knew nothing about Scoggins) so some people may bet on the prospect. But considering it's in Brazil and it's Lahat's first UFC fight, I'm not sure.
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If you didn't chase the win (like I haven't since making this thread), then you are 2-0 +430.
I'll monitor the line but I don't think Castro will get much more value from here but I know nothing of Lahat (like I knew nothing about Scoggins) so some people may bet on the prospect. But considering it's in Brazil and it's Lahat's first UFC fight, I'm not sure.
Line jumped to +245. Shoulda figured more and more people would be taking Lahat as a parlay candidate, which how I learned about this trend. So it's falling into place. People like to parlay big favorites (guilty as charged), and I can't count how many times I burned myself by taking that big favorite right off the bat without any knowledge of him and seeing him lose. Hope that's the case tonight.
If anyone is interested...I also like Rony Jason, Parke, Ferreira and Shogun. I'll post my added plays later.
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Line jumped to +245. Shoulda figured more and more people would be taking Lahat as a parlay candidate, which how I learned about this trend. So it's falling into place. People like to parlay big favorites (guilty as charged), and I can't count how many times I burned myself by taking that big favorite right off the bat without any knowledge of him and seeing him lose. Hope that's the case tonight.
If anyone is interested...I also like Rony Jason, Parke, Ferreira and Shogun. I'll post my added plays later.
If the guide is correct, then Gorman v Gagnon and Indich v Walsh are going to be on Fight Pass. I'm torn here because I expect a split here and I would imagine, if there is one, that the dog winning here would be Indich. Gagnon isn't a "no-name" but I don't think your "average" fan knows him. So this may be a situation where I stay away from the first fight and just take Indich, so long as Gagnon wins. And if he loses, stay away from the Fight Pass prelims altogether.
It really is a pick and choose type of trend. The trend is pretty much, if there are sizeable favorites on the Fight Pass prelims, that you take the dog(s). If there are 2, then you may come out with a split by taking both. If you do it fight by fight, you may be able to go 1-0 and take your money. Usually both big dogs do not cash but, more importantly, usually both big favorites do not cash, making their addition to parlays useless and a horrible way to start the card.
So whether you like the idea or not, it's been profitable so I'll keep riding it. I'll post official plays on Wednesday. Love when we have 2 cards on the week.
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3-0 +$665
If the guide is correct, then Gorman v Gagnon and Indich v Walsh are going to be on Fight Pass. I'm torn here because I expect a split here and I would imagine, if there is one, that the dog winning here would be Indich. Gagnon isn't a "no-name" but I don't think your "average" fan knows him. So this may be a situation where I stay away from the first fight and just take Indich, so long as Gagnon wins. And if he loses, stay away from the Fight Pass prelims altogether.
It really is a pick and choose type of trend. The trend is pretty much, if there are sizeable favorites on the Fight Pass prelims, that you take the dog(s). If there are 2, then you may come out with a split by taking both. If you do it fight by fight, you may be able to go 1-0 and take your money. Usually both big dogs do not cash but, more importantly, usually both big favorites do not cash, making their addition to parlays useless and a horrible way to start the card.
So whether you like the idea or not, it's been profitable so I'll keep riding it. I'll post official plays on Wednesday. Love when we have 2 cards on the week.
Gorman +260 v Gagnon -320 Indich +200 v Walsh -240
Grujic +200 v Taleb -240
De La Torre +435 v Bocek -570
This is the first time since I've been tracking that there have been so many plays on the FP prelims. If you blindly follow the system then you would take all 4 dogs and expect a 2-2 split but I believe Gagnon will win so I will steer clear of that one and bet accordingly.
Indich +200 is the only play I have locked in right now. Depending on how the first two fights play out, I'll add Grujic and De La Torre if it seems fit. But if you were wondering, if Gorman and Indich both cash, then Grujic and Torre are no plays. If Gorman and Indich both lose, then Grujic and Torre are both plays. And if Gorman and Indich split, then you chase the next 2 dogs until one wins. The trend stops after Torre v Bocek.
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There are actually 4 fights on Fight Pass today.
Gorman +260 v Gagnon -320 Indich +200 v Walsh -240
Grujic +200 v Taleb -240
De La Torre +435 v Bocek -570
This is the first time since I've been tracking that there have been so many plays on the FP prelims. If you blindly follow the system then you would take all 4 dogs and expect a 2-2 split but I believe Gagnon will win so I will steer clear of that one and bet accordingly.
Indich +200 is the only play I have locked in right now. Depending on how the first two fights play out, I'll add Grujic and De La Torre if it seems fit. But if you were wondering, if Gorman and Indich both cash, then Grujic and Torre are no plays. If Gorman and Indich both lose, then Grujic and Torre are both plays. And if Gorman and Indich split, then you chase the next 2 dogs until one wins. The trend stops after Torre v Bocek.
Alright. This is a more traditional card for this trend so I definitely expect to get that split this time. There are 3 fights on the Fight Pass prelims with 2 plays that fit the bill.
Jack May +250 and Ray Borg +175
The dogs should at least split here. I have May at +250 and if that wins, I'll stay away from Borg. If May loses, I'll take Borg.
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Alright. This is a more traditional card for this trend so I definitely expect to get that split this time. There are 3 fights on the Fight Pass prelims with 2 plays that fit the bill.
Jack May +250 and Ray Borg +175
The dogs should at least split here. I have May at +250 and if that wins, I'll stay away from Borg. If May loses, I'll take Borg.
Based on how this trend as gone, May looks to be a prime example of a guy who should win. I haven't heard of him or Lewis before and when that has been the case, the big dog has cashed. On the other hand, I have heard of Ortiz and if the split happens to come, it would be May cashing and Ortiz cashing and the trend going 1-0 if you don't try to get greedy. We will see.
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Updated Record: 3-2 +$465
3 of the last 4 events have cashed.
Based on how this trend as gone, May looks to be a prime example of a guy who should win. I haven't heard of him or Lewis before and when that has been the case, the big dog has cashed. On the other hand, I have heard of Ortiz and if the split happens to come, it would be May cashing and Ortiz cashing and the trend going 1-0 if you don't try to get greedy. We will see.
I didn't see the fight but Twitter was telling me that Borg was beyond impressive. Surprised he lost. Apparently he fought 15 days ago. That really is impressive.
Sucks to see the trend taking a hit lately. But it's not long until we get another crack at it.
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I didn't see the fight but Twitter was telling me that Borg was beyond impressive. Surprised he lost. Apparently he fought 15 days ago. That really is impressive.
Sucks to see the trend taking a hit lately. But it's not long until we get another crack at it.
Ortiz deserved the win 29-28, he outworked Borg on the feet by a decent margin there but Borg had way bigger moments throughout the fight. Yeah he was very impressive
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Ortiz deserved the win 29-28, he outworked Borg on the feet by a decent margin there but Borg had way bigger moments throughout the fight. Yeah he was very impressive
All 3 plays work tonight so if you take all 3, all you need is 1 to make a profit. I won't be around but the this will have a chase-style system to it. If Lapsley wins...I'm done. If he loses, I take Wall. If Wall wins, I'm done. If both Lapsley and Wall lose, I'll be on Gamburyan.
Anthony Lapsley +220 Ben Wall +235
Manvel Gamburyan +335
Good Luck fellas. Lets hope the skid ends tonight.
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All 3 plays work tonight so if you take all 3, all you need is 1 to make a profit. I won't be around but the this will have a chase-style system to it. If Lapsley wins...I'm done. If he loses, I take Wall. If Wall wins, I'm done. If both Lapsley and Wall lose, I'll be on Gamburyan.
Anthony Lapsley +220 Ben Wall +235
Manvel Gamburyan +335
Good Luck fellas. Lets hope the skid ends tonight.
Sparky10191.... Glad to see someone else on this train. I have been posting this on here for 2-3 years and have had a TON of conversations and stats to back up. If you exclude Main Events and CO- Main Events from any televised or PPV card over the last 4-5 years on an annual basis you are up huge cash and units. This year got off to a slow start with a couple cards where chalk dominated but outside of the Main Events or CO Main Events you don't have to know a lot about this sport to win $$$ just take dogs outside of the main event. I think the last number I saw of the last 65 events you were ahead money 52 of the 65 if you played all dogs outside the ME.
This is largely because many of the players do what you talked about with parlaying fav's which inflates the lines. I write a couple columns for well known UFC publications and spend a lot of time around folks that wager on the sport and I have NEVER and I mean NEVER seen anyone win money long term parlaying fav's in the UFC. I guarantee it is a losing proposition.
Great post......
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Sparky10191.... Glad to see someone else on this train. I have been posting this on here for 2-3 years and have had a TON of conversations and stats to back up. If you exclude Main Events and CO- Main Events from any televised or PPV card over the last 4-5 years on an annual basis you are up huge cash and units. This year got off to a slow start with a couple cards where chalk dominated but outside of the Main Events or CO Main Events you don't have to know a lot about this sport to win $$$ just take dogs outside of the main event. I think the last number I saw of the last 65 events you were ahead money 52 of the 65 if you played all dogs outside the ME.
This is largely because many of the players do what you talked about with parlaying fav's which inflates the lines. I write a couple columns for well known UFC publications and spend a lot of time around folks that wager on the sport and I have NEVER and I mean NEVER seen anyone win money long term parlaying fav's in the UFC. I guarantee it is a losing proposition.
Sparky10191.... Glad to see someone else on this train. I have been posting this on here for 2-3 years and have had a TON of conversations and stats to back up. If you exclude Main Events and CO- Main Events from any televised or PPV card over the last 4-5 years on an annual basis you are up huge cash and units. This year got off to a slow start with a couple cards where chalk dominated but outside of the Main Events or CO Main Events you don't have to know a lot about this sport to win $$$ just take dogs outside of the main event. I think the last number I saw of the last 65 events you were ahead money 52 of the 65 if you played all dogs outside the ME.
This is largely because many of the players do what you talked about with parlaying fav's which inflates the lines. I write a couple columns for well known UFC publications and spend a lot of time around folks that wager on the sport and I have NEVER and I mean NEVER seen anyone win money long term parlaying fav's in the UFC. I guarantee it is a losing proposition.
Great post......
I appreciate this because I was starting to think this was the final straw. It started out profitable but over the last few events, its leveled out. Last night was heaven for dogs on the regular card. Insane. But, of course, I lost the 3 I took.
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Quote Originally Posted by refer:
Sparky10191.... Glad to see someone else on this train. I have been posting this on here for 2-3 years and have had a TON of conversations and stats to back up. If you exclude Main Events and CO- Main Events from any televised or PPV card over the last 4-5 years on an annual basis you are up huge cash and units. This year got off to a slow start with a couple cards where chalk dominated but outside of the Main Events or CO Main Events you don't have to know a lot about this sport to win $$$ just take dogs outside of the main event. I think the last number I saw of the last 65 events you were ahead money 52 of the 65 if you played all dogs outside the ME.
This is largely because many of the players do what you talked about with parlaying fav's which inflates the lines. I write a couple columns for well known UFC publications and spend a lot of time around folks that wager on the sport and I have NEVER and I mean NEVER seen anyone win money long term parlaying fav's in the UFC. I guarantee it is a losing proposition.
Great post......
I appreciate this because I was starting to think this was the final straw. It started out profitable but over the last few events, its leveled out. Last night was heaven for dogs on the regular card. Insane. But, of course, I lost the 3 I took.
Sparky10191.... Glad to see someone else on this train. I have been posting this on here for 2-3 years and have had a TON of conversations and stats to back up. If you exclude Main Events and CO- Main Events from any televised or PPV card over the last 4-5 years on an annual basis you are up huge cash and units. This year got off to a slow start with a couple cards where chalk dominated but outside of the Main Events or CO Main Events you don't have to know a lot about this sport to win $$$ just take dogs outside of the main event. I think the last number I saw of the last 65 events you were ahead money 52 of the 65 if you played all dogs outside the ME.
This is largely because many of the players do what you talked about with parlaying fav's which inflates the lines. I write a couple columns for well known UFC publications and spend a lot of time around folks that wager on the sport and I have NEVER and I mean NEVER seen anyone win money long term parlaying fav's in the UFC. I guarantee it is a losing proposition.
Great post......
Refer do you have any numbers to back it up? Last night was a killing for the underdogs! My betting friend is very supersticious in taking the underdog on the 1st fight of the night. I don't really track it, but I have seen some upsets, but it could be coincidence. You are right about parlaying the fav's, I've lost many parlays when 1 favorite blows it. Last night I had a gut feeling to avoid the Wineland fight, I posted that on my pick write up. But I didn't expect that many dogs to win, it was crazy last night. I'm going to start tracking this thread. Let's see how the rest of the dog's do the rest of the year.
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Quote Originally Posted by refer:
Sparky10191.... Glad to see someone else on this train. I have been posting this on here for 2-3 years and have had a TON of conversations and stats to back up. If you exclude Main Events and CO- Main Events from any televised or PPV card over the last 4-5 years on an annual basis you are up huge cash and units. This year got off to a slow start with a couple cards where chalk dominated but outside of the Main Events or CO Main Events you don't have to know a lot about this sport to win $$$ just take dogs outside of the main event. I think the last number I saw of the last 65 events you were ahead money 52 of the 65 if you played all dogs outside the ME.
This is largely because many of the players do what you talked about with parlaying fav's which inflates the lines. I write a couple columns for well known UFC publications and spend a lot of time around folks that wager on the sport and I have NEVER and I mean NEVER seen anyone win money long term parlaying fav's in the UFC. I guarantee it is a losing proposition.
Great post......
Refer do you have any numbers to back it up? Last night was a killing for the underdogs! My betting friend is very supersticious in taking the underdog on the 1st fight of the night. I don't really track it, but I have seen some upsets, but it could be coincidence. You are right about parlaying the fav's, I've lost many parlays when 1 favorite blows it. Last night I had a gut feeling to avoid the Wineland fight, I posted that on my pick write up. But I didn't expect that many dogs to win, it was crazy last night. I'm going to start tracking this thread. Let's see how the rest of the dog's do the rest of the year.
Another night of Underdoging the Board pays you between $5-6 units depending on what lines you got.......consistent winner all year long outside of the Main Events.
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Another night of Underdoging the Board pays you between $5-6 units depending on what lines you got.......consistent winner all year long outside of the Main Events.
Talking out of your behind. For every shocker like this a guy will win 12-15 in a row as a massive favorite.
Barao trained about as hard for this fight as you did. Totally overlooked the kid.
Read the post idiot.....you are always trolling in here talking smack with no clue what are talking about ...... the nearly 50 replies on this post ALL talk about this being OUTSIDE of the Main Events....this has NOTHING to do with fight you are referencing.
Nice Parlay pick though in your post only 2 of the 3 lost....keep playing those big fav's.
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Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:
Talking out of your behind. For every shocker like this a guy will win 12-15 in a row as a massive favorite.
Barao trained about as hard for this fight as you did. Totally overlooked the kid.
Read the post idiot.....you are always trolling in here talking smack with no clue what are talking about ...... the nearly 50 replies on this post ALL talk about this being OUTSIDE of the Main Events....this has NOTHING to do with fight you are referencing.
Nice Parlay pick though in your post only 2 of the 3 lost....keep playing those big fav's.
Read the post idiot.....you are always trolling in here talking smack with no clue what are talking about ...... the nearly 50 replies on this post ALL talk about this being OUTSIDE of the Main Events....this has NOTHING to do with fight you are referencing.
Nice Parlay pick though in your post only 2 of the 3 lost....keep playing those big fav's.
well, im on the same side of many of rzagzas boxing and mma plays so i guess i dont know what im talking about either.
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Quote Originally Posted by refer:
Read the post idiot.....you are always trolling in here talking smack with no clue what are talking about ...... the nearly 50 replies on this post ALL talk about this being OUTSIDE of the Main Events....this has NOTHING to do with fight you are referencing.
Nice Parlay pick though in your post only 2 of the 3 lost....keep playing those big fav's.
well, im on the same side of many of rzagzas boxing and mma plays so i guess i dont know what im talking about either.
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