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Jake Shields

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Prospect
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Posted: #1

I am getting +350 on Jake

Is this the best value that i will get?

or should I wait? 

 
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Posted: #2

prolly goes up.

everybody will bet gsp.

im throwing 25 $ on jake. hes beat some good fighters on 15 win streak.

 
Captain
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Posted: #3
I think people are a bit too quick in writing off Shields. I think he has a shot in this one.
 
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Posted: #4
I am playing him..
 
All-Star
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Posted: #5

I'm all for betting dogs, but to a point.

You just DO NOT bet against GSP, Silva, Aldo and Jon Jones.  It is basically throwing away $.  There are plenty of other big underdogs more worthy of a wager.

A guy has to fight a PERFECT fight to beat these guys, whereas other guys who are +200 to +300 just need to fight a good fight, not a perfect fight.  Matt Hamill at +250 (via Lay and Pray) and Werdum at +250 (via Sub) have a realistic shot of winning their fights.  Why play +340 on a guy who needs a minor miracle over 5 rds?  GSP is just too well rounded.

 
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Posted: #6
Shields doesn't have to fight a perfect fight.  He just has to grad a limb or a neck
 
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Posted: #7
If Jake was +200 or even +250, i wouldn't play him..
 
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Posted: #8

yeah exactly crow

+ 325 theres some value there IMO

 
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Posted: #9
I think GSP wins this fight pretty easily... but couldn't resist the value in taking Shields at +1305 to win by decision at 5dimes.  I cannot see him finishing GSP and the judges have been horrendous lately.
 
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Posted: #10

Just to be clear, you guys all watched the Sheilds/Kampmann fight? Do you guys think Jake would beat Kos/Fitch/Jhonson? I don't think Sheilds would beat people in the Condit/Hardy range

 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by sirchadwick1:

I think GSP wins this fight pretty easily... but couldn't resist the value in taking Shields at +1305 to win by decision at 5dimes.  I cannot see him finishing GSP and the judges have been horrendous lately.

if this goes to decision, i cant see Shield at all winning it... How can shields win by decision? his standup is subpar, i dont think his 'mma' wrestling is nearly as good as gsps... GSP almost never loses a round, and gets so many takedowns so easily its crazy..

IF shields wins, he wins by a SUB.

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by deserted:

Just to be clear, you guys all watched the Sheilds/Kampmann fight? Do you guys think Jake would beat Kos/Fitch/Jhonson? I don't think Sheilds would beat people in the Condit/Hardy range

It was pretty clear that Jake didn't cut weight properly for that fight and Martin is a REAL fighter... He wasn't exactly some pushover....

And Jake has already beat Carlos Condit AFTER he already had a fight and Beat Yushin Okami on the same day...

 
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Posted: #13
I'm going to play shields also. i always overlook Shields and like crow said he HAS beaten some really good fighters. Also, those guys from the cesar gracie camp can fight. I have a feeling this fight is going to be a lot closer than most people think.
 
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Posted: #14
Why don't you just flush your money down the toilet too.. It's only money you know....

GSP easy.......
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by RichardA:

Why don't you just flush your money down the toilet too.. It's only money you know....

GSP easy.......

Her's the thing Richard.. I just don't think GSP warrants a -400 or larger number, so I play the dog instead..

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Crowkillers:

Her's the thing Richard.. I just don't think GSP warrants a -400 or larger number, so I play the dog instead..

You can just pass on the fight

 
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Posted: #17
I see no reason to take Shields +325. If you're going to bet Shields, take the +600 prop via submission instead. Even if he (somehow) won the fight, he'll be losing until he wins and he won't win a single round. A choke off a scramble is really the only way I could fathom a GSP loss.
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:

I see no reason to take Shields +325. If you're going to bet Shields, take the +600 prop via submission instead. Even if he (somehow) won the fight, he'll be losing until he wins and he won't win a single round. A choke off a scramble is really the only way I could fathom a GSP loss.

I agree...

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by deserted:

You can just pass on the fight

I could.. But a guy with Shield's ability at +300 or more is hard to resist...

I won't have anything more than $25 to $50 on him anyways...

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

if this goes to decision, i cant see Shield at all winning it... How can shields win by decision? his standup is subpar, i dont think his 'mma' wrestling is nearly as good as gsps... GSP almost never loses a round, and gets so many takedowns so easily its crazy..

IF shields wins, he wins by a SUB.



Shields can win via decision by top control.  I know everyone is so used to seeing GSP on top for the entire fight... but we really don't know how this one will play out since it's an intriguing matchup.  Shields isn't a small WW and I don't think GSP is taking him down with ease here... we'll see some intelligent grappling.  I'm banking on GSP's gameplan being stand and pick him apart for 5 rds - a decision is very likely.  Jake definitely can't hang w/ him on the feet so I'm sure he's just going to try to hang on and get him to the ground.  Watching Shields get Hendo to the ground with ease, makes me think he has a shot here.  Georges has only been subbed once in his career when he was green... Sure, Jake could catch a limb but I would rather rely on a decision here since so much weight is on the top game/control.  Trust me though... it's a small play for me at .5u to win 6.5u - I'm a big GSP fan and if he somehow loses this fight, I'll feel better that I actually get paid a little.
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by RichardA:

Why don't you just flush your money down the toilet too.. It's only money you know....

GSP easy.......

 
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Posted: #22

just locked in Shields @ +350 (1 unit)

Good Luck To All

 
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Posted: #23
sheilds
 
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Posted: #24
 
 
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Posted: #25
There is no reason to take Shields moneyline. Take him by sub at +700.

No reason to take GSP by decision. Take him by unanimous.

No reason to take GSP by inside distance. Take him by TKO.

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