Anthony Pettis -140 vs Ben Henderson +120 – I know this isn't the line but this is what I think it is, maybe it will go there tomorrow late in the day. Henderson has been just getting by in his recent wins, a very talented fighter but his time is up. I seen something in both fighters that makes this a strong pick for me, Henderson does NOT want to stand with Pettis at all. Look for Henderson to attempt takedown after takedown. Pettis KNOWS he has him, he will stalk and release an arsenal of kicks and punches. I know Henderson is tough and its hard to imagine him getting finished, but as this crowd goes bananas, it will happen. There’s a reason I have Pettis the favorite, he is the favorite to win this fight. I think Henderson’s only chance is if he catches Anthony in a guillotine other than that its all Pettis.
3 units Anthony Pettis -140
Al Iaquinta -200 vs Ryan Couture +180 – Don’t understand how Iaquinta is the big favorite? Becuase he trains with Chris Weidman? Couture is bigger, stronger and has more skills. I honestly think Iaquinta should be at 145 because he doesn’t have the strength it takes to compete at 155. With confidence I see Couture bouncing back from his loss to Pearson, he might even get a finish.
3 units Ryan Couture +180
Erik Koch -120 vs Dustin Poirier +100 – seems to me Koch just can’t get his career going, injury after injury has delayed his promising upside. Koch has great size, he is a very strong striker but I question his endurance. I might be a bit biased because I really like Poirier’s story, his heart and the effort he brings to the cage. Last time out, he performed poorly, I think he will come out blazing here and I don’t think Koch can match his intensity. As the fight goes longer, it favors Poirier. Look for a 2nd or 3rd round stoppage for Dustin.
3 units Dustin Poirier +100
Josh Barnett -140 vs Frank Mir +120 – lots of reasons I like Mir. For years now, Barnett has faced non-ufc competition and Mir has held his own against the very best in the world. This fight in my opinion, comes down to strength of schedule. I really think Mir as a grappler is the better guy. Barnett is more physical and more aggressive which i’ll admit makes him the favorite but not by as much as the oddsmakers think. Still, Mir has much cleaner standup skills than Barnett and I just have this hunch Mir will “outclass” him. I can’t go the limit but I will go with Frank Mir to wow the crowd in Milwaukee with something special.
2 units Frank Mir +120
"opinions" on other fights;
Chad Mendes -700 vs Clay Guida +550 – I know, -700 but think about it how is Guida going to take Mendes down and control him? He can’t. After Mendes stops a couple of those takedowns attempts, its an on the feet battle(remember Guida vs Maynard?) Well, Mendes is faster and hits just as hard so Guida will get caught sometime during rounds 1, 2, or 3. Don’t worry, this line could be -1000 its nothing personal to Guida who has been a great mma fighter for years, but to evolve with the game today these younger guys have big advantages all around.
Jamie Varner -160 vs Gleison Tibau +140 – just feel like I know these fighters. Tibau a very tough out has fought in the ufc for years and has a 12-7 record in those fights. Varner once a top lightweight has rebounded to get his career back and I think he’s just in a class above Tibau. I might be wrong but thats how I see it. So even though this fight will be close and Tibau has the stronger resume, I will side with Varner to win a decision based on his boxing and wrestling combo.
-boldtiger
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