[Quote: Originally Posted by OnTheO] A couple more leans guys:
Brandao Inside Distance +160 over Hettes
Diego Brandao is not a top ten guy and he's lost to the upper echelon of the division (Elkins, Poirier, Conor), but at the end of the day, he's better in every area than Hettes. In Hettes' strongest area, grappling, Brandao still has a large advantage. I only worry about Brandao's gas tank, but if there is anyone around Diego who cares about him, that will be worked out for this fight.
Rafael Natal -175 over Tom Watson
Watson gets taken down by everyone. At a 47% takedown defense, he is the epitome of the decent-striking Brit with no TDD. In his fights with Catone, Leites, Nedkov, and Tavares, he gave up 5 takedowns in EACH fight. When Natal is able to takedown fighters (2 against Camozzi, 4 against Spencer, 6 against Kuiper) he tends to win those fights. Natal will not have the decided striking disadvantage against Tom, but he will be able to score in the TD.
McMann by decision +110 over Miesha Tate
Very similar. I feel like a broken record. These two ladies are very grapple-oriented fighters and while Miesha's gameplan is likely to stand outside and box, I don't think she'll have a huge advantage there and will end up on her back time and time again, where she's not particularly good at sweeping or subs.
Thiago Santos -170 over Andy Enz
Santos will have the decided striking advantage over Enz and while Enz is slightly better in the sub, he's not the best in transition, controlling opponents on the mat, or in the takedown.
I may have 1 or 2 more as the week goes on. Good luck!
So far, when I've picked against you, I've been wrong, but just wondering why you think McMann will have a wrestling advantage over Tate? I just think Tate is younger and has improved recently and represents decent value at +170 in what I see as a toss-up fight. It's not like McMann has beat anyone that great unless that last girl was really good. I vaguely remember that being a big wrestling match that she controversially won.