UFC 214 (Jones vs Cormier 2)

Daniel Cormier +230 (3 Units)

This was my response to someone that asked if there were arguments for why Jones would lose this fight...

Another response...

Would not put anything on Cormier until after the weigh in
If he looks like he did in his last fight, effects of that will really show in later rounds
Would put money on Jones to finish him in round 4 or 5

I was set on Jason Knight until he tweeted a picture eating steak and fries.... may seem like a small issue, but it is laughable to eat that way the week of the fight whether you can make weight with ease or not. Will most likely still play him, but it is definitely worth reconsidering; not sure how seriously he is taking this fight/treating his body

I also don't see myself getting a better price than +230.  If it does go higher, I will likely put more on Cormier, but I doubt it will.  If you want to bet Cormier, I would do it sooner than later.  Once everyone sees how great he looks, bettors could start taking that dog money to move the line.

I don't expect he will , like u said he looks in great shape
But you never know with weight cutting
Wouldn't place anything on him until after weigh ins

Well ask yourself why Jones is -250 to begin with. Do you think the oddsmakers are just completely wrong here? Do you really think the sharp money is going to be all over Cormier here? I'm not so sure. I honestly think this line is going to get even higher before the week is over, so I disagree with you thinking you won't be able to get a better line on Cormier. In fact, if Mr. "I Move Lines With My MMA Bets" Luca Fury ends up betting Jones later tonight or in the next day or two, I can assure you that the Jones line will most definitely rise. I don't know what his thoughts are on the fight yet, but I would be shocked if I don't see him playing Jones in some fashion on this card. So I would actually keep waiting for your DC line to get even better.

I agree with you in a sense, but I don't agree that this fight is a coin-flip. This is a max bet type of situation in my opinion. You will rarely get Jones at this cheap a price ever again after this weekend (unless he moves up to heavyweight or something). I felt the same way the first time they fought when I got Jones at -160ish. That was a max bet as well. The layoff does play a factor here but I'm just not convinced that it is THAT worse than the fact that Cormier is 2 years older, has had a few nagging injuries, has had issues cutting weight as easy as he used to, and took a good amount of damage over the course of those 2 years (not a ton but far more than Jones). On top of that, DC just simply isn't as good as Jones. It's that simple. Like I said in a previous post, there is just as much pressure on DC coming into this fight as their is JBJ. DC's only career loss is to Jones and he wants to avenge that so bad. It's the only thing he hasn't accomplished in his career. Jones and the whole world still refers to DC as a paper champ because he never really beat the real champion and DC can't stand that. I don't care what BS he spews to the media. He knows that this is likely his last chance to make everything right in his world before he retires and he doesn't want to screw that up. Both guys have pressure and both guys are extremely motivated because they just flat out hate each other. That stuff is all a wash in my opinion.

And finally, as in my other post, JBJ looks in great shape to me and he already knows DC's blueprint. Nobody has ever been able to unlock the mystery of Jones. What is DC going to do differently in this 2nd fight that will make up that gap? It's not like he's learned any new tricks. He's the same fighter he's always been. Whereas Jones is far more unpredictable in his striking and was even successful in taking DC down in their first fight. So many more methods for Jones to win this fight in my opinion. Hopefully you can see that this is just a friendly discussion from two guys on opposite sides of the fence and this is what the forum should be about. I can understand someone seeing value in DC at that price but to me, it's not valuable enough. Jones would need to be -450+ before I would consider backing DC in this situation. That's just how I feel. And like I said, if "You Know Who" bets on Jones like I would think he would, that Jones price is going to climb and you'll get a better deal on DC if you wait a bit longer. Good luck

I was excited to get on here and see what your response was going to be to my post, but I have to saw I was mostly disappointed. I don't understand what point you were trying to make. I specifically used the word "rarely" because I know there are a FEW fights out there where the odds on Jones would be lower (Gustafsson being one of them). I also admitted that moving up to heavyweight would likely produce lower odds on Jones as well. So I'm not sure what you were trying to point out there. I already made those points for you. Gustafsson has a MUCH better shot at beating Jones and their original fight was much closer than the Jones/Cormier fight. Had we been talking about a Jones/Gus rematch and you were on Gus, I would totally understand where you're coming from because that was Jones' toughest test in my opinion and Gus is still young and presents a similar body type/reach issue that Cormier does not.

I was really hoping you would respond with some reasons as to why you believe Cormier will win this fight.I am talking strategic and in-cage reasons where Cormier will have any advantages over Jones or the strategy he will implement to be the first person to ever beat Jones. I have yet to see any of that from you. All of your reasons seem to be that you think DC is in great shape and Jones might not be as good as he was back when they first fought.

I understand I'm writing novels over here, so maybe it's just too much to read. So I'll just ask you to answer this one question.....What do you think Cormier does differently in this fight to beat Jones? Please answer that. DC has not changed or evolved as a fighter since their first fight. He's been hurt numerous times over that span. He's 2 years older AND 38 years old. A guy that's 9 years younger and arguably one of the greatest P4P fighters of all time is going to struggle and lose to a guy he already took care of in their first fight? And the old guy is 2 years older now?

I just think Jones is the worst type of matchup for Cormier. Period. Cormier isn't able to implement his offensive gameplan like he can with other guys in that division. It's Jones who dictates the range, the pace, and where the fight takes place. When Cormier isn't able to utilize his wrestling AT ALL, he is so one dimensional and that one dimension is not good enough to beat Jones in my opinion. I do understand the odds in fights, so you don't need to waste time explaining that. I am THAT confident in this fight. It obviously sounds crazy to you, but that is my opinion. I would love to hear more of an actual explanation on why you like Cormier at those odds here, so please spend your time on that in your next post if you have the time.

There are definitely reasons why I believe Cormier will change his game plan and be able to defeat Jones. Again, I believe Jones is the better fighter. He has every athletic advantage, is younger, already beat Cormier. We all know that. I think our big disagreement is how I believe the first fight was way closer than you do. I actually had Cormier up 2-1 before the 4th round, when Jones clearly took over and won 3-2, could've been 4-1 too. There's no debate that Jones won the first fight. What i am noticing leading up to this fight is the mentality of both fighters. Before 182, Cormier just wanted to beat Jones asss.  Cormier had never lost, thought he'd be able to bully Jones, take him down, and do what he wanted on the ground. He underestimated Jones and fought with so much emotion. This fight, he has a completely different mindset leading up to it. He's more calm and wants to just win. He doesn't care about hurting Jones, and he will be way more patient in his approach. I know it's a completely different situation and fight but look at Conor vs Nate 2. In the 1st fight, like Cormier, Conor went in there and underestimated Nate's toughness and thought he could finish him quickly. In the 2nd fight, Conor took a more strategic approach and was able to win 3 of the 5 rounds. That's how I see this going for Cormier. Cormier will definitely have a different approach going into this fight. Whether it will work or not, we will see. I just think there is too much value to pass up on a guy that has the skills to win a decision and all of the question marks surrounding Jones in and out of the ring. 

Let's also not discount the fact that Jones could very well had been on steroids his entire run as champion. And let's also not discount his out if the ring antics. While many believe his sobriety could be good for fighting, you could also take the opposite approach and believe that without the drugs and partying, he could get in his own head and be extra nervous for this fight. There's just so much outside shitt surrounding Jones adding to the fact that he had 0 killer instinct against OSP, a fight that could very well had been the 1st time he was off the juice since he was champ that I just don't believe it's wise to lay -250. Good luck tho and well see what happens. Can't wait for Sat night. 

I will take a shot with Cormier and hope for the best. Good luck....

Appreciate the insight....

Hmmm, yea, it appears we are just going to have to agree to disagree here. And that's fine, that's the beauty of this forum. I wish we would all be able to have engaging conversations around certain fights more often, because I think hearing things from all sides help a bettor who may be on the fence and looking for insight.

Let me make this clear, though, because I think somewhere I gave out the wrong impression. I don't believe I ever said that their first fight wasn't close. I don't believe Jones destroyed DC. I thought it was a close, but CLEAR win for Jon (4-1 in my opinion, but an argument could be made for 3-2 at worst). So I'm not being blinded by thinking Jones dominated him in that fight. However, it was still a pretty clear and decisive win. No controversy. Like I said earlier, Jones is just a horrible matchup for DC in my opinion. Jones utilizes his reach advantage better than maybe anyone in the history of the UFC. That allows him to strike at range, bully DC in the clinch (especially on the fence), and he was even able to take down DC. Jones takes away a lot of the strengths that make DC so successful in his other bouts. DC's offensive wrestling is basically completely nullified against Jones. And that's a huge deal to me. Without that wrestling to rely on, DC becomes extremely one dimensional and his striking just isn't anything that Jones can't handle. So that ends up meaning DC is only likely going to win by winning 3 of the 5 rounds. I do not see him winning by KO or sub. He couldn't do it the first time and I have no reason to believe he has improved enough or the gap in talent between him and Jones has shrunk enough to justify betting him in this spot.

I saw you mention the OSP fight and that seems to be such an overblown misconception to me. Why does everyone think Jones looked so bad in that fight? Just because he didn't get the finish? Remember, Jones and DC were supposed to fight on that card too and it was DC that pulled out due to injury. It was Jones' first fight back and going from fighting DC for the belt to having to face OSP had to have been a bit of a letdown. There was seemingly ZERO upside for Jones in taking that fight. Had he won in impressive fashion, everyone would have said that he was supposed to win because it was a mismatch. Had OSP done the unthinkable and caught Jones with some kind of wild unorthodox strike, everyone would have been all over Jones claiming he was done. I thought Jones looked just fine in that fight. OSP, while not the amazing prospect everyone kept hyping him up to be, is still a dangerous and athletic opponent who does a lot of unorthodox things in there. Jones looked like he was complacent and perhaps coasted a bit, sure. But was that more of a knock on his abilities or simply the fact that there was a letdown effect, nothing on the line, and OSP seemingly refused to engage most of the fight. OSP circled a lot throughout that fight in the later rounds and Jones just didn't seem to feel it necessary to go hunting him down. Go watch that fight again if you haven't recently and I think you may be surprised.

You referenced the Conor/Diaz fight and while you did mention it wasn't exactly the same, I still feel like it's a horrible comparison. Conor was dominating a weight class where his left hand was way too much for guys to handle and he had a tremendous size advantage. When he moved up to 170 for the first fight, it was late notice, he didn't have the cardio, and he wasn't used to someone who was bigger than him and could take a punch. The main reason Conor lost that first fight was cardio and Nate's chin. Conor wasn't efficient with his energy and blew his load too quickly once he realized Nate could handle his power. Conor went back and soley focused on his cardio and even then, he still gassed midway through their 2nd fight. The only reason he won that 2nd fight was the actual skill advantage that Conor possessed and the fact that he fixed his cardio enough to where he was able to at least survive. But make no mistake about it, it was Conor's skills that won that fight and the cardio that lost him the first fight and almost cost him the 2nd time. I'm not sure how that relates to this DC/Jones rematch. DC may adjust his game plan here, sure, but to what? There's not much at this stage in Daniel's career that he can really improve upon that will exploit Jones' weaknesses. And DC certainly isn't going to be able to rely on his natural athletic ability or skill to win him this fight. I just don't see what advantages or adjustments DC can make here that will be enough to win him 3 rounds. Not to mention Jones and his coaches will be learning from the first fight and see how to improve. I'm sure Jones will be looking out for those uppercuts in the clinch that DC had some success with early in their last fight.

So again, it almost sounds like the main reason you're betting DC in this spot is because of the question marks surrounding Jones. Almost more of a fade of Jones, rather than backing DC's in-cage ability. Fair enough. In order to be successful, though, Jones actually has to look a lot worse in there than he did in the first fight. Not to mention, DC also has to be a bit better, in order for that gap in the first fight to be fully closed and surpassed. I just don't see it. I'm in the line of thinking of until one of the greatest fighters of all-time gives me a reason IN THE CAGE that he no longer has the same abilities as before, I'm simply not going to assume that he's lost it. Why should I? It's all speculation. I think there is just as much a chance that we see the best version of Jones in there as there is we see one of the worst versions. You referenced Cormier's mental approach to the first fight vs. his approach to this one as well. Again, I think we are seeing things differently there. To me, it seems like this could quite possibly be DC's last fight, regardless of what happens. He seems content with his career, his life, and his family. While I agree he fought with too much emotion in the first fight, I feel like he might not be fighting with ENOUGH emotion for this one. He looks like a tired, drained, sick of cutting down to 205, 38 year old man who knows deep down he can't beat Jones. If DC wins, he can retire into the sunset knowing he got his victory. If he loses, oh well. He knows Jones is better than him anyways and he wasn't expected to win. I'll take the guy that is trying to regain his life, his title, and his legacy back and who looks incredibly motivated to do so. The odds are still in a range where I feel comfortable in doing so. If you see the value on the other side, more power to you. Good luck to the DC backers out there, including yourself. But my prediction is Jones is going to win another clear decision and possibly even finish DC. Then we will see DC give some respect to Jones after the fight before announcing that he's fought his last fight. Jones will get his title back where it belongs, DC will go back to broadcasting, I'll win one of the biggest bets of my life, and all will be right again in the world. Regardless of the outcome, this was a good discussion and I was happy to see you make some more valid points in your last post, as it gave me a better understanding of the angle you were taking in the fight. I was on the same page with you in the Shevchenko/Nunes fight and that was a great case of where I felt the loser of the first fight had improved much more than the winner of the first fight and Shevchenko was going to win their 5 round rematch. I don't see it being the same type of deal here. While it's obvious both of us can't win, I wish you good luck and I will admit when I'm wrong after the fight if it plays out that way. Good luck!

Jones was off a weekend of cocaine the 1st time they fought, you can see how lethargic he looked in that fight.  Jones by stoppage +210 seems like a gift

Given your analysis of the Conor-Diaz fight, could I ask for your perspective in the Mayweather-Conor fight from this angle?

Essentially, given Conor's size and chin, I have a hard time seeing Floyd win by anything other than decision. Guy just doesn't knock anybody out anymore, doesn't have the urgency to, and knows he can joint outpoint Conor from a technical standpoint to an easy decision. Priced at +180.

There is also the outside chance that Conor lands the miracle punch at +500. I would say that for Conor to win he has to knock Floyd out since there is no way that he outpoints Floyd from a technical standpoint, but Conor to win and Conor by KO, TKO are both priced +500.

Honestly, I was really surprised by the plus odds on Mayweather by decision, but what would be your assessment of Conor's cardio going into the fight? Do you think he is going to gas and there will be a stoppage. Seems pretty easy to lay both Floyd by decision and Conor to win, and come out ahead either way. Thank you for your insight.

Agree there is plenty of value on Cormier at that price.  I believe the true line should be around Jones - 190 or so.  I think there is a good chance Jones wins the fight, but with such a long layoff and the head case that he is, there are too many variables and unknowns in play. I like the play on Cormier as I believe there is at least a 40% chance he wins this fight. 

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