UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 67-116 +15.05 units 

Stacked night of fights. Should have some good spots to make some money. 

I will have write ups posted by mid week. 

GL ALL 

@paletta007

 I like OSP/Rua to not go the distance. Looking forward to your previews.

@PattyBates

 Thanks! I hope they help. GL this weekend 

Newson vs Garcia 

Opening fight of the night. Newson is technically 1-2 since joining the UFC, but his lone victory was later switched too a no contest after testing positive for weed. He is a decent striker who likes to march forward and use his power punches as a threat. He does have sold grappling, but prefers to strike and look for the finish. He does have average take downs if he wants to attack them, but does struggle with control on the mat. I look for him to keep this fight standing and look for a finish. In comes Garcia who is making is official UFC debut. He won his contender series fight back in October. He is a well rounded fighter with a nice set of skills. He likes to march forward and stay in the face of his opponent. He moves well on his feet and has good counter punching. He has good grappling also and does a good job at mixing up his game plan to keep his opponent guessing. He does a good job managing the fight, and his fight IQ has shown to be an asset. I lean Garcia in this fight as the more well rounded fighter, but at -150 I will most likely pass on this price, especially with the possibility of a striking match which will favor Newson. If I back Garcia it will most likely be a small position on him too win by decision at +225. 

Carnelossi vs Godinez 

First ladies fight of the night, and it should be a good one. Two big & strong ladies who are very physical for the division. Godinez is 2-2 since joining the UFC. She is physical fighter who likes to bully her opponent, and that is when she has the most success. Her striking is solid which sets up her take down attempts nicely. Her Take down attempts aren't the cleanest, but her physicality makes up for any short fall in that area. If she can be the more psychical fighter in this match up, I anticipate she has success, but that will be a tall task in this fight. In comes Carnelossi who is 2-1 since joining the UFC, both wins by stoppage. Like Godinez, she is a very physical fighter. She is very aggressive and likes to stay in the face of her opponent and looks to make the fight dirty. Her take down defense is solid, and ultimately that could be the X factor in this fight. If she manages to get on top, she has heavy top pressure and solid ground & pound. I like Carnelossi in this fight as I think she will match Godinez physicality and frustrate her & ultimately do enough to secure the victory. 

Rodrigues vs Vergara 

This should be a fun fight. Rodrigues is making his UFC debut & he is a solid prospect. He is a well rounded fighter who has a lot of potential. He has solid striking with good power in his punches, he mixes in kicks nicely and has a wide variety of attacks. He does throw a lot of his strikes from the hips which are pretty telegraphed, so that could cause him issues as the competition stiffens. He does have solid take down attempts & he looks too mix them up, so keep that in mind. If he gets on top he does a good job at controlling his opponent. Vergara lost a decision in his UFC debut late last year. He is a powerful striker who likes to march forward and stay in the face of his opponent. He prefers to fight in the pocket and has solid clinch work with solid knees and elbows. This is a pretty well matched fight and the odds currently have Rodrigues as a -300 favorite, which I think is pretty wide. I don't see enough from Vergara too back him, but I think this will be a close, contested fight and will end in a close decision. I lean fight to go the distance at +100 but I will wait until later in the week to make a final decision. 

Cortez vs Gatto 

Another solid fight. Cortez is making a return after a year layoff. She is 3-0 in the UFC. She is a fantastic wrestler who is always looking for the take down, and does a good job at controlling her opponent for long periods of the fight. Her striking is just average and is not a real threat. It's no hidden secret on Cortez game plan, she will look for the take downs, and control her opponent & I don't see much changing here. Cortez does have solid submission defense, and she will need that in this fight against Gatto who is dangerous off her back. Gatto will look to keep things rolling. She is 2-0 since joining the UFC, both wins by stoppage. She has solid grappling and is very dangerous on the mat, from top or bottom position. She does have solid striking and she showed that in her last couple fights. She has good volume and uses kicks nicely too mix things up. Gatto is the much more dangerous fighter, but Cortez will certainly get take downs, and her submission defense should be enough too prevent any sort of submission from Gatto. I lean Cortez, but I find it very hard betting against someone as dangerous as Gatto. I will wait until later in the week and make a final decision on this fight. 

Trinaldo vs Roberts 

Battle of the veterans. Trainaldo is 4-1 in his last 5 will look to keep things rolling at the young age of 43. This is his 3rd fight at Welterweight, which has served him well thus far. He is a solid wrestler who likes to stay in the face of his opponent and work in his his take downs. His striking is average, but he uses his wild looping shots too keep his opponents at bay. His chin even at the age of 43 has held up, but that can change at any given time when your this far into your combat career. Overall he is well rounded and he does a good job at using his wrestling if he gets into trouble. In comes Roberts who made his return in October after a 2 year layoff. He did win that fight, but he did look like a fighter who was returning after a long layoff. He is a good striker who carries legitimate power in his hands, and against an aging Trinaldo, that could be a factor here. His take down defense is below average, and he doesn't have much in terms of offensive grappling/wrestling. I understand the risk of backing older fighters, especially against power strikers, but Trinaldo's chin has held up, and I think he will use his pace & wrestling to neutralize Roberts and grind out a win. I Like Trinaldo on the ML in this match up at even money.  

Rogerio De Lima vs Ivanov 

First and only heavyweight fight of the night. Ivanov is making his return after a 2 year layoff. He is on a 2 fight skid & looks to get back on track. He is a solid striker with good power in his hands. He is always willing too trade strikes and his chin has been tested by some of the most powerful punchers, and has held up throughout his career. He does have grappling in his back pocket, and that could play a roll in this fight. His take down defense is also solid. In comes De Lima, who is riding a 2 fight win streak. He is a powerful striker who uses volume as his best asset. He has nice kicks and is quick for his size. His take down defense is a liability, and has very little to offer off his back which is concerning. I like the upside of De Lima, but I think this is a nice spot for Ivanov too get back on track. I think he can mix in his big strikes and set up take downs and ultimately control De Lima. I will wait until later in the week too make a final decision, but I lean Ivanov in this fight. 

Royval vs Schnell 

This should be a really exciting fight. Royval won a split decision last time out. He is a very creative striker with a wide variety of strikes. He has great cardio and is always hunting for a finish, and his cardio makes him a threat from start to finish. He likes to stay in the face of his opponent & keep the pressure on. In his last fight he got taken down 8 times and still managed to win, which shows you just how active he is in his fights. He does have solid grappling with some nice submission on his resume so keep that in mind. Schnell is finally returning after a year layoff. He was supposed to fight Perez, but that fight was cancelled 3 times. He is a very good counter striker. He does a good job at luring his opponent into chasing him & returns with kicks and combinations. He does have solid BJJ and has the ability to snatch up submissions if the opportunity presents itself.  I think the odds are wide in favor of Royval, as I think his aggressive style plays into the counter striking style of Schnell, so I will most likely stay away from this fight in terms of a side. I do like the over 2.5 rounds at +120 as I think these guys go back and forth in a really close fight. 

Chiasson vs Dumont 

2nd ladies fight of the night & it should be another solid one. Chiasson is 4-2 since joining the UFC & is coming off a submission loss back in December. She is long fighter who likes to fight at range. She uses her range well and has a nice jab that helps keep her opponent at bay. She has a positive striking differential & when she can find her range is when she has the most success. She does struggle when her opponent can close the distance, and that will be the same in this fight. If she can keep the range and move well, she could have some success in this fight. In comes Dumont who is riding a 3 fight win streak, all VIA decision. She is a good technical striker who has decent power. She is patient and does a good job at picking her shots. She does have at least 1 take down in each of her UFC fights, so that is something worth noting. If she gets on top she does have good top pressure & control. I lean Dumont, but at -220 I won't be backing her on the ML. I will see if I can find another way to bet on this fight later in the week. 

GL this week my friend!

Brown vs Williams 

Another fun fight. Both fighters riding 2 fight win streaks. Brown is a good striker who likes to fight at range. He has solid movement and has a really nice jab. He has solid kicks and does have solid grappling if he needs it. He does have some trip style take downs when he closes the distance, but he prefers to stick and move and out work his opponent. He is the more technical fighter in this fight, but he will have too be careful with the power of Khaos. Williams is a fun striker who carries power for the duration of the fight. He likes to march forward and keep the pressure on his opponent. He does a good job at throwing kicks which gives his opponent something too worry about, and follows up with devastating power shots. He has proven to be very durable in his career, which makes him very dangerous. I like Williams as the more dangerous fighter, but I will wait and see if I can find a better line closer to fight night. 

@The_Fist

Fialho vs Vancamp 

Short notice fight for both fighters. Fialho is making a quick turnaround after fighting just 2 weeks ago. Fialho is 1-1 in the UFC. He is a good striker with good power in his hands. He has a nice jab and does a good job at mixing in kicks that are an issue for his opponent. He has nice clinch work and he is very tough. One issue with him is his defense, and I mentioned that in the last breakdown a couple weeks ago. He does get hit a lot, and that is always concerning when backing a fighter. Vancamp is making his UFC debut. He is a brawler who is not afraid too make a fight dirty. He has a wild variety of strikes and is very creative in his attacks. I think that will benefit him in this match up, especially against someone who has less then ideal defense. He also has grappling in his back pocket, so that could benefit him if he decides to mix that into his game plan. I think he will look a little undersized in this fight, and the power & strength of Fialho could ultimately be the difference maker in this fight. I won't be backing Fialho in this fight, especially with the wild nature of Vancamps fighting style. 

Cerrone vs Lauzon 

Very odd fight too open up the main card. Lauzon hasn't fought since 2019, in that span Cerrone fought 6 times and lost them all. This is a very underwhelming fight for a PPV main card, but it should be entertaining too say the least. Cerrone is a fun striker who uses kicks very well. He does have solid power and nice combinations when he finds his timing. He is solid in scrambles and is very live for submissions if he finds the right opportunity. Lauzon has solid grappling and that is his strength. He is always looking for the take down, and in this fight that would be very wise too establish early. Easier said then done.  I would't trust either of these guys and I will most likely pass on this fight altogether. 

Rua vs St. Preux 

Rematch from 2014. Two guys at the end of their careers. Rua has been around the block and has fought just about everyone. He is a violent fighter, who is always looking too finish his opponent. He has nice clinch work and has very good knees & elbows and mixes in kicks nicely. He has slowed down considerably over the years and that is very obvious in his last few fights. In comes St. Preux who has been finished in his last 2 fights. He has bounced from Heavyweight to Light heavyweight. He is a solid striker with power in his hands. Over the years his knock has been his output. He gets conservative, even in fights he has the clear advantage in,  which in turn lost him some decisions. Like the last fight I broke down, I just cant trust either guy. I like the value of Rua at +200 but I just think he will be a step behind St. Preux. I will most likely pass on this fight, unless I see a prop later in the week that catches my eye. 

Ferguson vs Chandler 

A fight with a ton of question marks. Ferguson making his return after a year layoff. Riding a 3 fight skid. He is a wild striker with a wide variety of strikes. He has non stop pressure and always welcomes a brawl. He is very durable and has only been finished twice in his very long career. Question is, can he hold up and withstand the power of Chandler at this stage of his career? In comes Chandler who is on a 2 fight skid. All 3 of his fights in the UFC have been wild. He is a good wrestler, but prefers too strike. He has power in his hands and like Ferguson he will always welcome a brawl. He has been known to have a suspect chin, but his last fight against Gaethje showed otherwise. Chandler should cruise to victory in this fight, but Ferguson is hard too bet against. I like Chandler too win, but his current price tag of -380 is wide in my opinion, and betting Chandler by stoppage is -125 and against someone as tough as Ferguson, that doesn't sit well. Over 2.5 rounds at +130 is something I might consider later in the week. 

Namajunas vs Esparza 

Rematch from 2014. Namajunas will look to avenge the loss from 2014 and hold onto her belt. Style wise Rose is a well rounded fighter. She has good striking with very good movement. She does have decent power for the weight class and has solid kicks in her arsenal. If she needs it, she does have solid wrestling and can threaten off her back with submission attempts, which she might need in this fight. She has shown the ability to work back to her feet when taken down & she will need too do just that in this fight. She was taken down 5 times in her last fight against Weili, but I think Esparza is a better overall wrestler then Weili, so that could be a tall task over a 5 round fight. In comes Esparza who is riding a 5 fight win streak. No hidden secret on what her game plan will be, and that is too wrestle early & often. She uses her striking simply to close the distance and set up her take downs. Her top pressure isn't the best, but her ability to consistently get her opponent down is very deflating for her opponent and starts too wear them down as the fight goes on. Rose is 100% the more technical and dangerous fighter, but Esparza's ability too work in take down after take down has more worried if I'm backing Rose. I'm split on this fight as of today, and can't seem too find an edge betting wise. I might pass on this unless I see something later in the week. 

Oliveira vs Gaethje 

Main event, and this should be a fun one. Oliveira is on a crazy 11 fight win streak. He is one of the most well rounded fighters on the UFC roster. He is a high level kick boxer with very clean and accurate striking & very nice kicks. He does a good job at mixing up his attack which keeps his opponent off balance and thinking about all sorts of things, which allows him to stay a step ahead. He does have very slick submissions and is very quick at attacking those submissions in scrambles. I think he will be the more technical and more complete fighter in this fight, but Gaethje's brawling style and durability could be the X factor in this fight. In comes Gaethje who is 4-1 in his last 5. He has a background in wrestling, but rely's on his striking and brawling style. He does have power in his hands, but his high pressure and volume is his strength, and that is what he rely's on. His ability to walk forward and absorb his opponents best shots and continue too return fire is what makes him a tough fight for just about everyone. I give the slight edge too Gaethje in this fight, so at +140 I will most likely back him on the ML. 

@UglyKidJoe

Olivera missed weight?   

Yes, Gaethje can win the belt. Oliveira is stripped and cannot win. The fight will go on.

@BWS77

Yes, by 0.5 pounds. That throws a wrench into everything