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UFC Fight Night 26: Shogun vs. Sonnen Predictions and Plays

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Posted: #1
Predictions
Last Event: 4 - 3
YTD: 108 - 61
2012: 111 - 56


Plays
YTD: +65.3%

Getting this up early as I am really excitied for this card, a lot of fights i'm looking forward to. Here are my leans for said fights, I'll be back with Write-ups later for most of the fights I think. Posted below are just first thought leans, I may change my mind in my write ups later on.


Alistair Overeem  <  Travis Browne 
Urijah Faber   >   Yuri Alcantara  
Matt Brown   <  Mike Pyle  
Joe Lauzon   >   Michael Johnson  
Michael McDonald    >  Brad Pickett   
Mike Brown    <   Steven Siler  


 


 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
if sonnen dosent win he is going to retire and i think that is what is going to happen... he is not even trash talking, i think he knows its put up or shut up and i think it is the latter
 
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Mauricio Rua   vs.   Chael Sonnen  
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Striker vs. Grappler anyone? Muay Thai vs American Wrestling, Brazlian Hero vs. "The American Gangster". Ok I'll stop now. Shogun is and always will be my all time favorite fighter, I have a lot of fighters that I like but Shogun will always hold a special place in my heart. I didn't get the pleasure to watch his Pride Fights live but the replays are basically what got me interested in MMA.

I hate to be so simple but we all know Sonnen loses if it stays standing most of the fight and Shogun probably loses if he gets taken-down and can't get back up. I'd like to believe that Shogun has a better chance of holding his own in scrambing, clinching and off his back then Chael has standing with Shougn, it might be a small advantage but I believe it's there. It's a five round fight so I have to question Shogun's cardio as well as his Knees, although he seems to be past the knee problems as he has had no set backs after the last few fights.

Shogun has a few more outs in this fight, he can end the fight standing, win with his own take-downs (this is not very likely but Shogun has under-rated take-downs) or possibly submit Chael Sonnen. Chaels out in this fight is to Grind and Grind some more.

Chael's Striking is serviceable and his wrestling is obviously much better and based on Shogun's last few fights I'd also give the edge in Cardio to Sonnen but that's about all I'd give him.

In the end it comes down to whether or not Sonnen controls 3 of the 5 rounds to take a split or UD. If it was three round fight I'd probably be hesitating less and taking Sonnen to grind it out. The fanboy in me is going to pray and hope Shogun has his cardio up to par and I think everything else will fall into place.

Prediction - Shogun Rua via TKO ground and pound end of round 4. 


 
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Posted: #4

Alistair Overeem   vs.   Travis Browne  
Co-Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

As you can see I previously picked Brown in my leans above. The more I think about it the more I like Overeem.

Brown probably can’t take Overeem down and probably loses a clinch battle along the fence due to brute strength and Hulk knees from Overeem and if Alistair loses on points standing or is finished again…well maybe it’s time to do back to K1.

I don’t think Browne can submit him either,  I mean it’s possible and Browne is slick on the ground but Overeem has criminally under rated BJJ and I’d actually give him the edge in submissions. Tough fight to call!

Prediction – Overeem gets his UFC career back on track with a 3rd round finish on Browne via upper cut KO.

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by ilovethathook:

if sonnen dosent win he is going to retire and i think that is what is going to happen... he is not even trash talking, i think he knows its put up or shut up and i think it is the latter

There's zero reason for him to retire if he loses... this is his last fight at 205, Weidman beating Anderson really "mixed things up" at 185... not to mention he has went out of his way to make waves with Wandy and Vitor... those are headliners in Brazil... Chael just isn't going to throw away that kind of money.  With his new contract and the outside money he garnishes for ppv buys and such, him and Vitor headlining a decent card could legit be a million dollar pay day for him.  

I know he has things lined up afterward because of how much fox likes him, but a million, is still a million, is still a million.... Also crowat... if the fight goes to the fourth as bad as Shogun gases I really don't see him winning.  rds 4 and 5 wud def go to Chael imo.
 
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Urijah Faber   vs.   Yuri Alcantara  
Main Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Alcantara is a viscous striker with a legit ground game, however, his one glaring weakness is Faber's biggest strength - Wrestling.

I actually think Faber can hold his own on the feet against Alcantara but in the end it will just be a means to secure the take-down. Faber really only needs one per round as his top control is absolutely crushing and he sticks to you like his mothers life depends on it. Throw in his top notch submission knowledge and his devistating ground and pound and you have a tough fighter to deal with. Come to think of it I don't think Faber gets enough credit for his BJJ, Faber has embraced it since day one as a deadly complement to his already potent wrestling, sure Chael Sonnen might be a little bit better of a straight up wrestler but whens the last time he submittied anyone? Time McKenzie in Bodog fight in 2009? It's rare for a wrestler as good as Faber to bring there offensive BJJ almost up to par with their wrestling.


Alcantara is dangerous as well, Faber hits hard but he is wild and moving a lot so he dosen't always have his feet planted for that fight ending shot. Alcantara is a bit more plodding  with fast hands and tight combinations, Faber probably won't go down from one shot, if Yuri secures stoppage you better beleive it will be from a 3+ punch combo. Yuri also has a stellar ground game. He holds a black belt in BJJ and sports 12 wins via tap out, add 12 more wins via KO/TKO and you have 24 of his 28 wins via some form of stoppage. Stopping The Calofirnia Kid is easier said than done, since 2005 ( and only once before) he has only been stopped once by stikes, delievered by Mike Brown who hits like a MACK truck and got some what lucky with his punch. Faber has also never been submitted in 34 fights so I'm doubting Yuri pulls off the submission win here.


Prediction -  -280 seems a bit low for Faber in this fight in my opinion, I believe the oddsmarkers are giving Yuri some points due to his fight ending power and slick striking. I have Faber as a -350 or so favorite in this one, tough fight for Yuri. Faber via UD.


 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by 8intheGate:


I know he has things lined up afterward because of how much fox likes him, but a million, is still a million, is still a million.... Also crowat... if the fight goes to the fourth as bad as Shogun gases I really don't see him winning.  rds 4 and 5 wud def go to Chael imo.


Solid logic 8, I've said it before, the round and method or more me just having some fun. Happy to just pick the right fighter.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by 8intheGate:


There's zero reason for him to retire if he loses... this is his last fight at 205, Weidman beating Anderson really "mixed things up" at 185... not to mention he has went out of his way to make waves with Wandy and Vitor... those are headliners in Brazil... Chael just isn't going to throw away that kind of money.  With his new contract and the outside money he garnishes for ppv buys and such, him and Vitor headlining a decent card could legit be a million dollar pay day for him.  

I know he has things lined up afterward because of how much fox likes him, but a million, is still a million, is still a million.... Also crowat... if the fight goes to the fourth as bad as Shogun gases I really don't see him winning.  rds 4 and 5 wud def go to Chael imo.

nobody will buy a ppv with sonnen on it after 4 straight losses!... people liked sonnen when he was winning because he was entertaining but the fact of the matter is you still have to win... if you think dana is going to give sonnen, vitor belfort after 4 straight losses u r out of ur mind.  you should check out some recent dana white interviews where he was dumbfounded that even after sonnens last 3 losses, that he would get a shot at belfort even with the bad blood
 
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Posted: #9
Sonnen should fight Axe Murderer next.  That would probably be a pretty entertaining fight.  TRT Vitor doesn't need Sonnen, so that isn't gonna happen.

As far as Rua - Sonnen, I'll wait to see which Shogun shows up at weigh-ins, more times than not in recent fights it's been the not all that committed to training and being in peak shape.  If it's the Shogun from the Gus fight, expect that tank to go empty quickly.
 
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Posted: #10
Been away from work for a mini family emergency, the rest of my picks will be short and sweet. Sorry :(
 
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Matt Brown   vs.   Mike Pyle  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Inital lean was Pyle, I might be thinking/talking myself out of it though. This is actually a tough fight to cap, both men have been finishing fights recently and both are coming off impressive wins and runs, Browns run is longer and slightly over-all more impressive (5 straight for brown vs 4 for Pyle) Pyle still holds the most impressive win over their respective runs, a split decision win over Rick Story, you could argue Brown finishing Jordan Mein is more impressive I guess, not to take anything away from Brown's win, Mein looked a bit off to me that night, but I digress. *edit* Scratch that thought about Pyle beating Story, when I wrote it it sounded wrong, ofically he did beat him by split decision but I just re-watched Story won all three rounds, some nice sub attempts from Pyle off his back but that's about it. *edit*

Both men are evenly matched, Pyle's stand-up is a bit tighter and more poloished, he throws nasty straight punches while Brown's style is a little more wild and wide but he probably packs a slightly bigger punch (not pyle's recently found his old man strength and has been knocking fools out as well) Pyle in my opinion is light years ahead in terms of straight up BJJ but I think Brown will have the better wrestling and clinch work, Pyle can definitely hold his own in the clinch but if hes on the defensive with his back against the fence he will struggle and fade from Browns pressure.

It comes down to what type of fight this is, if Pyle fights on the outside and avoids defensive clinching along the fence he should be able to work his own clinch game, his trips and throws are very sneaky and even though that's Browns game he is not immune to be taken down.

If this turns into a brawl and a clinch battle along the fence Matt Brown probably grinds out a decision or a late stoppage.

Prediction - I have to give the nod to Brown in him making it a grinding, brawling type of fight. Brown via TKO round 3. 
 
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Uriah Hall   vs.   John Howard  
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

I don't think Howard beats Hall on the feet. Can Uriah stop the take-downs and top control of Howard? I'm going to go with yes here almost pruley based on if Hall loses to Gastlum and then Howard in a row the hype train has officially de-railed.

Prediction - Hall via TKO round 1.
 
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Joe Lauzon   vs.   Michael Johnson  
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Awesome fight, I tihnk at some point Johnson's suspect submission defense lets him down after a few spirited rounds, he might even be ahead but I think Lauzon pulls off the submisson here.

Prediction - Lauzon via heel hook round 3.
 
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Michael McDonald   vs.   Brad Pickett 
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

This should be a fun fight and a stiff test for McDonald, he should be able to pass, I see Pickett struggling to connect on McDonald and even though he has good wrestling I don't think he wins a wrestling / clinch battle either.

Prediction - Man I am the favorite master, I'll pick a dog some day I swear lol McDonald via UD.
 
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Posted: #15
Conor McGregor   vs.   Max Holloway  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

I need to see more of McGregor, I know his stand up is pretty good and unorthodox but Holloway is not a fighter you want to stand with. I am staying away and picking Conor based on his ridiculous amout of hype. What i'd like to see from him in this fight is a good all around game, obviously Holloway is weaker off his back and with submissions so exploit that, sure maybe McGregor can and will win on the feet but I'd like to see him mix it up against a striker as good as Max.

Prediction - McGregor via split decision.
 
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Mike Brown   vs.   Steven Siler  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

The smart pick here might be Brown but I like Silers youth, length and take-down defense, one over hand right from Brown and it could be good night though.

Prediction - Siler via UD
 
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Posted: #17
As always, excellent write ups cro, agree with everything spot on save the Johnson fight. Unless he dramatically improved his cardio, I think JLo pushes the pace too much early and this could end in a late 1st round sub or early 2nd sub. Thanks for your write ups bro.
 
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Diego Brandao   vs.   Daniel Pineda 
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Pineda is excellent at closing the distance and shooting or changing levels at the right time, showing good fight IQ and reaction time. He has a somewhat raw but effective ground game with 13 of his 17 wins coming via submission and his striking is effective but somewhat rudimentary.

Brando's ground game is more technical but holds less wins via submission as he prefers to knock his opponents out. Brando has pretty good take-downs himself but I'd give the edge to Pineda in the clinch and take-downs. Brando has also shown suspect cardio but his striking is more technical and he should be quite a bit faster and stronger.

Prediction - I think this will turn into a fun brawl where I give the nod to Brando's speed and power, he should be able to hold his own in scrambles as well. Pineda could come in with a clear cut strategy of getting Brando on his back (like Elkins did) and steal a decision but I think at some point Brando catches Pineda with a knee, possibly on a desperation take-down from Pineda. Give me the the Jacksons's MMA product via TKO round 2.
 
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Cole Miller   vs.   Manvel Gamburyan  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

I like Manvil to take a UD via take-downs and top control, Miller will try to win on points standing or pull off the submission but I don't think Manny lets him.

Prediction - Manvil via UD.
 
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Ovince St. Preux   vs.   Cody Donovan  
Preliminary Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Missed Cody's last fight so I guess I am blindly pickign OSP, staying away though, dude can gas fast.

Prediction - OSP via KO round 1.
 
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Ramsey Nijem   vs.   James Vick 
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

1) Vick keeps it standing and batters Nijem with his suppior striking and length

2) Niijem chain wrestles until he takes Vick down each round and manages to not gas and hold on late.

Prediction - Going with the grappler, Vick has not fought in a long time and despite some pretty big upsets on TUF lacks the experience to deal with Nijem I think. Niijem via UD.
 
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Posted: #22
Some of the best write-ups in the business and entertaining to read. Thank you for taking the time to write these thoughts and predictions up.

bol as always...
 
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Posted: #23
Awesome thoughts as always crow. Good luck with any plays. You've been killing it. I'm sure you have a big parlay line up
 
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Posted: #24
Thanks guys.

Plays:

3 Team Parlay  Risk 5% to win 5.5 
Diego "DB" Brandao -285
Michael "Mayday" McDonald -225
Conor "Notorious" McGregor -325

2 Team Parlay  Risk 5.5% to win %5.3
Urijah "The California Kid" Faber -270
Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon -260


Pre-lim mini hail mary risk 1% to win 5%

Ramsey Nijem -190
Ovince St. Preux -350
Manny "The Anvil" Gamburyan -135
Diego "DB" Brandao -285
Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon -260
Michael "Mayday" McDonald -225

Hail Mary Risk 1% to win 35%
Urijah "The California Kid" Faber -270

Conor "Notorious" McGregor -325
Uriah Hall -450
Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon -260
Michael "Mayday" McDonald -225
 Diego "DB" Brandao -285
Manny "The Anvil" Gamburyan -135
 Ovince St. Preux -350
 Ramsey Nijem -190
Steven "Super" Siler +170
Alistair "Demolition Man" Overeem -230




 
 
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Posted: #25
-2% already :( Nice take down defense from Vick.
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