UFC fight night 5/14-early thoughts

not the most exciting card, but it's a card.  Also rumored that the canceled Lauzon vs. Cerrone fight will be added to this show, but i think Dana wants Cowboy's last fight to be in front of a crowd, so who knows.

Candelario vs. Taira - Re-scheduled from 2 weeks ago. Both men are well-rounded fighters.  Tiara likes to throw leg kicks to soften opponents up and then chase takedown's.  He isn't the greatest grappler and works very hard for them, but usually eventually gets it down to the mat.  His Bjj has looked pretty strong when he gets it there. He likes to set up head strikes off his kicks and does it well.  Candelario is a decent counter-puncher who also looks for takedowns.  I see Taira is as high as -250 which is a little rich for my blood with a 22 year old making his UFC debut and having to travel from Japan, although he could have stayed in the USA since he got here a few weeks ago idk.  Candelario really gassed in his DWCS fight.  I think Taira wins the fight, but not laying the #.  Early Lean - Taira by submission.

Maximov vs. Petroski - I hope you guys like wrasslin'.  Both fighters pedigree is in the grappling style.  Maximov is a Diaz brothers protege and you can tell watching him fight.  Maximov claims his best attribute is his "toughness" and while i haven't seen enough fights to validate that claim, he is already 2-0 and had a grinder of a win over Punahele Soriano who is a talented striker and landed some blows on Maximov, but Nick was able to use his grappling to edge out a victory.  Maximov's biggest weakness is his striking, maybe the Diaz brothers can at least teach him the art of 'dirty boxing'.  Petroski does have the edge in striking, but that is mainly due to his power striking.  He likes to load up and throw heavy shots as he enters his takedowns and if gets his hands together you are going for a ride. When it gets to the mat he will rain down blows and look for subs off defending those blows. His biggest weakness has clearly been his gas tank. If a fighter survives an initial onslaught or gets into the 2nd half of a fight, Andre really starts to breath heavy and slow down.  Maximov is as high as -480 which is just insane to me and makes me think maybe the oddsmakers know of something going on behind the scenes, idk.  Gun to my head i'd take Maximov, but if Petroski can be patient and not wear himself out then he has a decent chance of winning. Early Lean - too much value on Petroski here as a +300 and rising underdog.  I'm interested to see a Maximov by sub prop price.

GL this week 

Jandiroba vs. Hill - Gate-keeper vs. future gate-keeper.  Harsh, but both women are solid fighters who just are not really that elite in any one area.  Jandiroba's best attribute would likely be her BJJ when the fight gets to the mat, but against physically stronger women she just doesn't have the strength to win those critical positions.  Hill is a UFC veteran who comes into this fight losing 4 out of her last 5, but i had her winning two of those split decision losses.  Hill is very tough and a very smart fighter who has solid striking and is a well versed grappler.  Hill is also very well conditioned and stays strong for the entire fight. Early Lean - Angela Hill by UD

Johnson vs. Patrick - interesting fight.  Michael Johnson is a well rounded fighter and is a talented striker, especially counter striking.  MJ hasn't exactly looked the same in his recent fights.  Doesn't have the same pop in his strikes as he once did and just looks slow and sloppy.  Alan Patrick isn't much of a technical striker, just uses blitzes in order to get his mitts on a guy and try to bring it down to the mat.  The big problem with Patrick is that he isn't very great at his chosen style of attack.  For someone who attempts a lot of takedowns, his technique is very sloppy and MJ has very good takedown-defense. Also the fact that Patrick usually takes a lot of strikes from his opponent doesn't bode well for this matchup, even worse for him that MJ will have plenty of opportunities to land counter-hooks off Patrick's blind flurries. Early Lean - Michael Johnson by TKO/KO or UD

@paletta007

   BOL my man

Araujo vs. Lee - Andrea Lee fights from a kickboxing/muay thai stance and while her technique is strong, she isn't putting much power behind her strikes.  Where she has greatly improved is in the grappling department.  While her grappling technique has always been solid, she has looked much stronger in those exchanges.  Possibly it could just be her opponents of late.  Araujo throws heavy punches and is also well-versed in her grappling and takedown-defense.  Where she tends to struggle is in 2nd half of fights. The gas tank just isn't there and those heavy punches she throws to start fights doesn't help matters.  She is very strong however and i would think her best strategy for this fight would be to pick her spots and look to turn this into a grappling contest.  Andrea Lee will look to utilize her kickboxing early and make Araujo chase her and hopefully wear her down.  Early Lean - Andrea Lee by decision. Just been impressed with the way she has fought recently.  It's a pick em fight and should be, both women need this win to remain contenders.

dinner time

will post the rest tonight

Hadley vs. Nascimento - DWCS winner Jake Hadley makes his official UFC debut here.  Hadley was a controversial signing due to the fact that he didn't make weight for his DWCS fight and even worse were the reports that he was really disrespectful to the staff at the UFC Apex where this card will take place.  As for his fighting skills, Hadley is very talented.  He is much more grappler/wrestler than striker, but he is quite technical in the stand-up and has a decent reach for his size and he will use it to make his opponent back away so he can gain entry to a takedown.  Once on the mat is where Hadley likes to dominate.  He has a great submission game.  Perhaps his best asset is his conditioning, he's gone 3 rounds a few times and has looked every bit as tough in the final minute as he did in the opening minute.  Nascimento is also a talented grappler who likes to hunt submissions on the mat or in stand-up.  He really specializes in sweeps and has great BJJ on the mat.  This will likely be Hadley's toughest test on the mat he has faced thus far.  Hadley is -230 in his debut. Early Lean - Nascimento ML.  my head immediately went Hadley when i first saw the matchup, but after watching some more tape of Nascimento i feel like there is some value on him at +money.  This is a much tougher test for Hadley than i think is being given credit for.

Torres vs. Camacho - Manuel Torres is another DWCS winner making his official UFC debut.  It's been difficult finding tape on him outside of that fight.  from the little i've seen i know he has a great frame and build for the welterweight division.  Camacho has been around the UFC and has never been impressive, getting finished in most of his losses and even got starched by Justin Jaynes in just 40 seconds and Jaynes took the fight on 3 days notice. Jaynes went on to lose his next 4 UFC fights, being finished in 3 of them in case you were wondering. Early Lean - Manuel Torres by Tko/Ko. Camacho just hasn't looked great against anyone and Torres is only a slight favorite.  May play round or distance prop here also

Chookgian vs. Ribas - whew, tough fight here.  Chookagian is a stand-up muay-thai striker who uses a volume of strikes (and grunts) to keep her opponent at distance.  She doesn't throw with much power behind her strikes, but just out-points with constant leg kicks.  She has the ability to grapple, but that is probably not the best idea with her opponent.  Amanda Ribas was much heralded coming into the UFC and now just entering her prime has lived up to the hype.  She did get finished a year ago by Marina Rodriguez, but she easily won the 1st round of that fight with a takedown and top control and then came out and ran into a right hand in the opening seconds of the 2nd round.  That was Ribas 2nd time getting Ko'd in her career so it is possible she is a little 'chinny'.  Ribas shines in the grappling game and has good BJJ when she gets there.  Over her short UFC career her striking has improved, but isn't nearly as sharp as Chookagian's.  This will be a match where each fighter will try to win with what they do best.  Early Lean - Amanda Ribas ML

Smolka vs. Grant - Win or lose, Smolka is usually involved in a finish.  He has solid striking skills and keeps up a frenetic pace.  He likes utilizing a clinch to use his knees and throw elbows off the breaks, although he got Ko'd exiting a break in his last fight by a right hook.  Smolka has some grappling skills, but when the fight gets to the mat he is very susceptible to getting subbed.  Davey Grant has solid striking skills as well, very technical boxing and the ability to win grappling exchanges and land takedowns.  Early Lean - Davey Grant by Tko or decision, not sure how i will bet this quite yet, but i think Grant gets the job done here, but i can't lay 3 to 1 on him.

Cutebela vs. Spann - Ryan Spann is a tall and athletic fighter, even for the LHW division.  Spann isn't the most technical or quick puncher, but he has a lot of length and power in his hands and can end the fight quickly. The cause for concern in backing him to win is the conditioning.  He strikes with an elongated wild style and if he's missing punches, it ends up eating into his gas tank and he tires very easily.  Cutelaba is an aggressive fighter who likes to come forward and set up takedowns off of power punches.  He is very strong and is able to get takedowns even though his wrestling technique isn't the sharpest.  Cutelaba does have a tendency to allow his emotions to get the best of him and he leaves himself open to counter-punching if he tries to bulldoze his way forward without setting up his shoots. This is a tough fight to pick because this fight can easily go one of two ways: Cutelaba comes out reckless and Spann lands a big punch to lay him out....or Cutelaba is able to land his takedowns and wear out Spann early in the fight and get a finish.  Early Lean - Cutelaba by TKO/KO if he can be patient and set up his takedowns or just grind Spann up against the cage and wear on him, then i think Spann will gas as early as late in the 1st round.  This fight is not expected to go the distance and the O/U round 1.5 is about a pick em.  This would be a great opener on a PPV main card

Blachowicz vs. Rakic - Jan Blachowicz is coming off losing his LHW title in a fight where people, including myself, questioned his mindset and conditioning after watching him get outclassed by 42 year old Glover Teixeira.  I know Glover is a beast, but Jan was breathing very heavy after just 1 round.  Rumor was that Jan was riding high after beating Izzy Adesanya and had a very lazy camp for the Glover fight.  When ready and prepared Jan is a deadly striker with crushing power in his hands and kicks.  His counter-striking is very technical and he has the strength to get takedowns or just control fighters in the clinch or grapple exchanges.  Aleksandar Rakic is like the male version of Kaitlyn Chookagian in that he is a kickboxer who uses his strikes to out-point his opponents and keep them at range.  He has great footwork and i think he also has an underrated wrestling package and can grapple, though i'm not sure he wants to get into a wrestling match with Jan, at least not in the early stages of the fight.  Rakic likes to throw lots of calf kicks to soften opponents up and work his way up to the body and head, he throws kicks behind his punches very well.  Early Lean - Rakic ML  i think the main difference here is Rakic being able to use his feet to move around the cage and win the striking battle by being in better position to land kicks and jabs and then move away to avoid taking much damage from Jan's counters. Jan has sort of a plodding come forward style that doesn't bode well for him against someone like Rakic.  In the Izzy fight, Jan got touched up from distance until he realized he was the much bigger and stronger guy and went for takedowns against the middleweight. With Rakic, i don't think he has that same luxury.  Blachowicz is a very powerful striker so anything is possible, but like Rakic to stick and move his way to a decision victory.

catch everyone later in the week 

GL this weekend Mick!