Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by whitebelt:
Fair enough, I have picked winners at like 57% over my first 2 posts. When I said I have been picking at 80%, I wasn't making wagers on every single fight. I only bet when I have confidence, and absolutely do pick better than 80%, when betting.
Fair enough, I have picked winners at like 57% over my first 2 posts. When I said I have been picking at 80%, I wasn't making wagers on every single fight. I only bet when I have confidence, and absolutely do pick better than 80%, when betting.
When I started writing these posts, I decided to give my insight for each fight on a card. That's what my threads are about, statistical analysis slightly influenced by my eye-test. They are obviously not recommendations to bet 12 fight cards in their entirety. At least, I thought it was obvious, but apparently was not to you.
I could write posts that have ~80% accuracy, but they would only have a few picks and I would get responses asking what I thought about XX other fight. There are other threads where you can find the top 2 or 3 locks to load up on. Only a fool would mistake my threads for one of those.
I also have an incredibly small sample size that included 2 pretty bad cards to start with.
With UFC 187 being completely worthless for value. I was willing to take more shots with smaller bets. Show me another card that the top 6 favorites on a parlay paid +295. If that's not a worthless card for betting value, I don't know what is. I wrote my article because it was such a big card for entertainment value.
Fight Night 67 had, what the consensus seems to be, three pretty bad decisions by the judges. I certainly view them that way, and with even semi-competent judging I could have easily went 10-2. This judging was far below average, even when you only compare third world country events. Yet instead of using common sense, you use it an opportunity to write some troll garbage.
It seems you may be better suited reading threads by writers who stick to 2 or 3 high confidence picks. I'm sorry to hear you didn't understand I was doing something different from the very beginning. Again: thought it was obvious, but it wasn't to you.
I guess I could only write about -500 heavy favorites to satisfy you individually, but the responses I've gotten on the whole indicate the community wants something different. So I'll keep posting my write ups over here, forever leaving the door open for trolls. Thanks and go darn yourself.
You said you hit 80%. You're not even in the same atmosphere as 80%. 
Now you're telling me you aren't hitting 80% because you're not picking -500 favorites? So I am supposed to believe that when you started your thread on covers, you all of a sudden stopped picking -500 favorites? And if so, what does it matter if you picked 80% now that you are picking underdogs?
You don't need to please me. You're a great contributor to the forum. Insightful posts and discussion.
I am simply noticing as did someone else, that you are nowhere near the 80% you touted in your first thread. 
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