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UFC Fight Night 82

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Posted: #1
Events 2-1
YTD 11-17(-547.86)
O/U 6-10(-3.50)
FFD 1-2(-0.70)
 
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Posted: #2
Kinda of a less than go crazy card we are seeing this weekend. Maybe some ITD will be in play since a few matchups aren't going to cards!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #3
FFD Lobov(+110) 1 gets me 1.10. I seen the line has really moved!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #4
No Stephen Thompson? +185 down from +240. Johny been having issues making weight in the past. Could be having trouble fighting 100%. Both need this fight. Stephen deceptively strong, good wrestling defence recently. One of the best pure strikers in the UFC.

Johny will be struggling keeping up on the feet, grappling he has the advantage, Thompson has adapted more to forward style attacks after facing Matt Brown. He seems level headed capable of understanding where to adapt. 

 I can see Johny gassing out and Thompson picking him apart.


 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Redwing51:

No Stephen Thompson? +185 down from +240. Johny been having issues making weight in the past. Could be having trouble fighting 100%. Both need this fight. Stephen deceptively strong, good wrestling defence recently. One of the best pure strikers in the UFC.Johny will be struggling keeping up on the feet, grappling he has the advantage, Thompson has adapted more to forward style attacks after facing Matt Brown. He seems level headed capable of understanding where to adapt.  I can see Johny gassing out and Thompson picking him apart.

Not playing this fight till I see them weigh-in!!!
 
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Posted: #6
But maybe to answer your question, IF Hendricks makes weight and in shape, Wonderboy has never faced a guy like him. Now I like Thompson but is he a better striker than Lawler or Condit???
 
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Posted: #7
As far as the line dropping, it could be the same guys who loved Bader in Vegas last week too!!!
 
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Posted: #8
Now I will give you this Red Wing. Hendricks has pissed alot of people off with missing weight. To be a elite wrestler and showing up fat and out of shape is mind blogging!!!!
 
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Posted: #9
Crazy how Hendricks' stock has dropped. The guy has been inches from 3 titles, you could make an argument he got robbed on two of them. He seemed unstoppable. a yr or 2 ago this fight would have been Hendricks -1000.

Really, you look at this fight. GOOD wrestler vs non-wrestler. Johny should take him down with ease and pound him out. But I'm not jumping at it!
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

Crazy how Hendricks' stock has dropped. The guy has been inches from 3 titles, you could make an argument he got robbed on two of them. He seemed unstoppable. a yr or 2 ago this fight would have been Hendricks -1000.Really, you look at this fight. GOOD wrestler vs non-wrestler. Johny should take him down with ease and pound him out. But I'm not jumping at it!

100% agreed Sawman!!! I'm not sure if his stock has dropped as much as the weight issues have upset everybody.
 
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Posted: #11
Checked the stats for odds on Bader. Bets were mostly for AJ, last few day or so were Bader bets at +350 vs +250 starting.

The path of Bader and Thompson is somewhat similar. They both need to place a win against a top 5. They are not related in outcome. If it does end the same result, that is by chance not design. 

Anthony Johnson is something else, his power is threatening unless you smother him. Bader needed his plan to go flawless for the first 3 rounds. Bader was scared and tense. That was a small bet you can make if you think bader has 50 percent odds +. 

What I see as Pros:

Hendricks will need to smother Stephen like Matt Brown's win over Stephen. Stephen dealt with an aggresive fighter, he has seen what he needs to win this fight. Get distance, avoid take downs, less leg kicks. He definately has high fight iq. 

Stephen trains with Weidman on wrestling. Wrestling has improved.Not as good as opponent. 

Hendricks looks to have a smaller gas tank. Good for 5 rounds for Steph. Steph's style takes less energy.

 2nd or 3rd round KO.







 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Redwing51:

Checked the stats for odds on Bader. Bets were mostly for AJ, last few day or so were Bader bets at +350 vs +250 starting.The path of Bader and Thompson is somewhat similar. They both need to place a win against a top 5. They are not related in outcome. If it does end the same result, that is by chance not design. Anthony Johnson is something else, his power is threatening unless you smother him. Bader needed his plan to go flawless for the first 3 rounds. Bader was scared and tense. That was a small bet you can make if you think bader has 50 percent odds +. What I see as Pros:Hendricks will need to smother Stephen like Matt Brown's win over Stephen. Stephen dealt with an aggresive fighter, he has seen what he needs to win this fight. Get distance, avoid take downs, less leg kicks. He definately has high fight iq. Stephen trains with Weidman on wrestling. Wrestling has improved.Not as good as opponent. Hendricks looks to have a smaller gas tank. Good for 5 rounds for Steph. Steph's style takes less energy. 2nd or 3rd round KO.

1) Johnson opened at 390 and closed at 260ish, unless my math is wrong gamblers were betting on Bader.
2) Weigh-ins and gas tanks are two separate things. Hendricks has fought 3 25 minute fights compared to 0 for Thompson.
3) Training with a wrestler and being a elite wrestler again are two different things.
Like I said the weigh-ins will tell you the story!!!
 
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Posted: #13
Basically this is two card wrapped into one. On the bottom half you have Borg/Scoggins and a bunch of guys you wonder should I even bet this. The top half you have Hendricks/Thompson and weigh-ins with a bunch of non contenders you wonder should I bet these guys either, lol. Don't forget about a $1000 fav who most have never heard of
 
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Posted: #14
Just so everyone knows, Hendricks was down to 173 1/2 as of February 2nd and looked cut up!!!!
 
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Johnson opened at -350  lets say and went to - 450.  Bader went up to +380 to compensate. People bet on Bader and the line dropped for AJ at -260.

For a 5 round fight, by end of round one thompson will have figured out how he wants to adjust. Hendricks has his rush in take down, rush in attacking style and grappling. Stephen will stay on outside. It could go either way if Stephen cant handle the pressure style. 

I have Thompson at 60 percent. 80 percent if he avoids take downs and controls the fight making adjustments. Not much Hendricks can do as he doesnt have as many tools. Thompson fights a good plan and he wins KO or unanimous. 

Lots of bet for Artem. Artem isnt that great technically. They took a fighter that hasnt fought in over a year to take him on.

Lahat is a fighter that is mid tier at max. Diego Rivas at +250 is interesting as he is well rounded has average boxing skills and grapling. His stand up style is safe and can rack up points. 

 
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Posted: #16
From the top boys:
*Hendricks(-210) 53.75 gets me 25.
Nelson(-160) 1.60 gets me 1.
Under 1.5 Nelson/Rosholt fight 1 gets me 1.15.
Under 1.5 St.Preux/Cavalcante fight 1.50 gets me 1.
Parlay St.Preux/Benavidez  4 gets me 2.10.
Under 1.5 Cirkunov/Nicholson fight 1.95 gets me 1.
ITD Cirkunov/Nicholson fight 18 gets me 2.
Pyle(+150) 2 gets me 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Noons(+150) 2 gets me 3.
Lewis(+120) 10 gets me 12.
Under 1.5 Grabowski/Lewis fight 1.50 gets me 1.
Borg(-300) 60 gets me 20.
Under 1.5 Gall/Jackson fight 1.65 gets me 1.
ITD Gall/Jackson fight 5.30 gets me 1.
Lobov(+110) 1 gets me 1.10.
ITD White/Lobov fight 1.60 gets me 1.

Notice the * by Hendricks name. I might be adding more depending on the prior fights.
Also have a $11 wheel to win $30.37 with LAHAT and Hendricks,Nelson,Cavalcante,Makovsky,Nicholson,Pyle,Noons,
Lewis,Borg,Gall,Lobov.

 
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Posted: #17
$166.85 in action. notice the line between the first 6 fights and the second six. Seeing how this bottom six plays out before I add to the top six or the Hendricks bet. Hopefully we have some fights finishing inside the distance. OK lets beat up the books!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #18
I like Borg and Hendrcks quite a bit as well. Just waiting to see how this night shakes out.

Good luck
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Chewy5394:

I like Borg and Hendrcks quite a bit as well. Just waiting to see how this night shakes out.

Good luck


Both got tough matchups with long lanky guys!!!!!!!! We will see if both can get inside and get the fight to the mat were they both excel at!!!!!!!!!!!!!


 
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Posted: #20
Good luck Ferrari - I took Thompson and am starting to regret it!  I'd have to lose money to reverse it so I'm just gonna cross my fingers.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by ParlayJoe17:

Good luck Ferrari - I took Thompson and am starting to regret it!  I'd have to lose money to reverse it so I'm just gonna cross my fingers.


Well Joe I wish you luck besides that fight, lol. But you never know, nobody thought Holm could be Rousey etc.
 
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Posted: #22
BTW Covers peeps, total degenerate play of all time. In the Puppy Bowl I got TEAM FLUFF(+7.5) 11 gets me 10.
 
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Posted: #23
Adding Hendricks (-265) 265 gets me 100.
 
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Posted: #24
Love Hendricks buddy! Tough matchup for anyone but especially a striker with questionable takedown defense.
 
 
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Best of luck 
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