UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

Another solid weekend of fight this past weekend. Fiziev came in big for us 

Long Island fight night this coming weekend. It is an early card with some decent fights and good opportunities to make some money 

I have a busy week ahead, but I will try and get my write ups posted by mid week. 

GL ALL 

Penne vs Ducote 

Opening fight of the night. Penne is making her first appearance of 2022 after winning both her fights in 2021. She is a veteran who has been fighting since 2006, so she has plenty of experience. She is a well rounded fighter who is solid in all areas but not great in any area. Her striking is solid and she does have decent enough grappling if she sees an advantage in that area. Ducote is making her UFC debut on relatively short notice. She is a solid striker with good power in her hands. She does have good counter striking which is a real problem for any opponent. She does have solid wrestling, but her striking and counter punches are her main weapon. If Penne makes this fight dirty and can tie up Ducote I think she will have success, but if Ducote can keep her distance and fight a striking match she should have the clear advantage with the more accurate and damaging strikes. I lean Ducote as the slight favorite in this fight. 

Grant vs Stoltzfus 

Two guys looking to get back on track here. Grant is 0-2 in his last 2 & is coming off a KO loss back in April. He is a striker with solid power in his hands. He uses his length well and manages his range nicely. His take down defense is solid, which is worth noting in this fight. His 2 major flaws would be his cardio and chin. He does seem to fade as the fight goes on, which is a real problem for him. In comes Stoltzfus who is 0-3 in his last 3. He is a volume striker who carries power in his hands. He does have a solid ground game, but his preference is his striking. His fight IQ has cost him in the past which is worrisome when your looking to back a fighter. I lean Stoltzfus as a slight underdog and the under 2.5 rounds, but I will monitor these lines and see how they look closer to the weekend. 

Algeo vs Burns 

Two guys who lost there original opponent on this card will now fight each other. Algeo is 2-2 since joining the UFC & is coming off that impressive victory back in January. He is a high pace and high pressure striker who does a great job at using output and volume as an asset. He averages just over 6 significant striker per minute, which shows how active he is. His take down's aren't great, but he is capable on the ground if that's where the fight ends up with solid defense.  His cardio and durability support his high pace which is important when backing a fighter with his style. In comes Burns who making his return after 2 years off. He is the younger brother of Gilbert Burns. He has solid grappling with decent striking & power. He averages just over 5 take downs per 15 minutes, and in most fights that is where he wants to be fighting. His problem sometimes is he relies on his grappling too much and becomes one dimensional and in this fight that could very well be the case. I lean Algeo in this fight and will most likely back him, I just want too find the best opportunity.  

Jacoby vs Jung 

This should be a very good fight. Both guys are rolling and look too keep things going. Jacoby is 3-0 in his last 3 & 5-0-1 overall in the UFC. He is a very good kick boxer. He has very solid low kicks and follows up with very clean and technical striking. He has great output & volume and his strikes start too add up as the fight goes on. He has gotten taken down in the past, but has shown the ability to work back to his feet so it will be interesting to see how he fairs in that area. He is coming off a decision win 4 months ago, but in that fight he looked just OK, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back here. In comes Jung who is 2-0 in his last 2 & 4-0-1 overall in the UFC. He is a very well rounded fighter with a nice skill set. He has technical striking with solid power in his hands. He does have solid wrestling and likes to work in some nice clinch work if he feels he has the advantage. He does a good job at fighting a complete fight, and will adapt to his opponents weakness. I think Jacoby will have the striking advantage, but Jung has more tools in his bag and I think he can come in with a solid game plan and frustrate Jacoby with a variety of different weapons. I lean Jung here and the fight to end inside the distance at even money. I will monitor the odds and see how they look on the weekend before making a final decision. 

Simon vs Shore 

Another solid fight on the under card. Simon is 4-0 in his last 4 and will look to keep things rolling. He is a high pressure wrestler with a non stop motor. He is relentless in his pursuit of the take down and never stops moving. Once he gets you down he does have solid control and does a good job at hunting for submissions. His cardio is an asset and supports his high pace style. His striking is just decent, but he did show some power in his last fight with a KO win. He does a good job at fighting to his strengths which is what you want if your looking to back a fighter. Shore is 5-0 in the UFC and is 16-0 overall in his career. He is coming off a close decision victory 4 months ago. He is a very good grappler who marches forward and has very nice kicks. His striking is solid and has improved in his fights. He is very technical in his attacks and is well aware of his surroundings. I think these odds are a little wide, but I think Shore will be too much for Simon to handle for 3 rounds. I lean Shore here, but I will see how the market takes shape closer too the weekend. 

Soriano vs Lungiambula 

Interesting match up here. Two guys looking to get back on track. Soriano is 0-2 in his last 2, losing 2 decisions in a row. He is a solid striker with real power in his hands. He does have a decent wrestling background, but tends to rely on his striking as his main weapon. His take down defense is suspect, and that was exposed in his last fight. He is very dangerous in the 1st round, but if the fight gets out of the 1st, he has only won once in his career. Lungiambula is coming off a submission loss back in March. He is a short and compact come forward striker with big power in his hands. He does have solid grappling, but his fight IQ has shown to be an issue so he isn't the most reliable fighter if your looking to back him at + odds. Yes these odds are wide in my opinion, but this fight will most likely be a pass for me, unless I see something that really sticks out to me later in the week. 

Big line move on Jung this afternoon.

He was sitting at +110/+120 depending on the book all week. This afternoon he is now the favorite on all books, some books as high as -140 

Unfortunately I won't have time for write ups on the main card.

I will have picks and thoughts Saturday as always  

Ortega has opened as the favourite to win the fight. I think that in the upcoming fight it will be the American who will be the first to act. And if he doesn't do anything stupid and starts fighting from the first second he'll win the fight. If he mixes it up with the Mexican and starts fighting, he's going to lose.

I'm betting on Ortega to win. He's definitely looking for a rematch with Volk.

GLTA 

@DenverStone

GL today my friend! 

 Best wishes today!!!

been following you in that soccer thread, your mlb picks have been great!

I never bet on soccer til this week but have been killing it since I started. Beginners luck I guess 

adding++++ 

Penne vs Ducote fight to go distance(NO) +125 - 2 units to win 2.5 units 

@The_Fist

@BigMick87

 Betting Soccer is great! I took a bath in some Tennis this week. Worst week in Tennis for me ever  Hope we win it back this afternoon 

adding++++ 

Ducote wins inside distance +260 - 0.5 units to win 1.30 units 

Penne vs Ducote fight to go distance(NO) +125 - 2 units to win 2.5 units  

adding++++ 

Grant vs Stoltzfus fight to go distance(NO) -175 - 5 units to win 2.86 units 

Grant vs Stoltzfus under 1.5 rounds +190 - 1 unit to win 1.90 units 

Grant vs Stoltzfus fight to go distance(NO) -175 - 5 units to win 2.86 units  

Grant vs Stoltzfus under 1.5 rounds +190 - 1 unit to win 1.90 units   

0-4 -8.5 units 

adding++++ 

Jacoby vs Jung fight to go distance(NO) -120 - 6 units to win 4.8 units 

adding++++ 

Jung wins inside distance +175 - 2 units to win 3.5 units 

adding++++ 

Jung ML -135 - 3 units to win 2.22 units 

Jacoby vs Jung fight to go distance(NO) -120 - 6 units to win 4.8 units  

Got greedy on last fight