Weidman vs Gastelum Write-Up:
Let's first start with the size factor.
Weidman is 6'2 with a 78 inch reach.
Gastelum is 5'9 with a 71.5 inch reach.
Weidman looked way bigger than Gastelum at the weigh-ins and will be way bigger tonight for the fight.
Now, let's take a look at the odds. Wediman has only been a bigger dog than he is tonight in his first fight against Silva, in which he was +195.
Weidman UFC Odds History:
-240 vs Sakara
-500 vs Bongfeldt
-365 vs Lawlor
-150 vs Maia
-150 vs Munoz
+195 vs Silva
+145 vs Silva
-190 vs Machida
-400 vs Belfort
-155 vs Rockhold (L)
-210 vs Romero (L)
-105 vs Mousasi (L)
+145 vs Gastelum???
Gastelum UFC Odds History:
Hall +285
Melancon -300
Story -180
Musoke -380
Ellenberger -230
Woodley +175 (L)
Marquart -500
Magny -335 (L)
Hendricks -110
Kennedy +105
Belfort -355
Weidman -165???
I just think there is massive value on Weidman tonight at 185 lbs against a fighter than is truly between weight classes. Weidman's last 3 opponents are way better than anyone that Gastelum has fought at 185 lbs.
Gastelum's fights are a bit smoke and mirrors recently.
-He lost a split decision to Magny as a -335 favorite at 170 lbs.
-He beat Hendricks by UD at UFC 200 at 170 lbs.
-He then missed weight vs Cowboy at 205 and had to move up to 185.
-He beat Tim Kennedy, who hadn't fought in over 2 years after a brutal KO to Romero.
-He then beat Vitor in Brazil after Vitor had lost 3 of his last 4.
They both KO'd Vitor, however Weidman did it when Vitor was on a 3 fight KO win streak. Gastelum got him 4 fights later.
I'm worried where Gastelum's head is at after his suspension, I'm worried about the size differential, and I'm worried about the level of competition he has faced at 185.
Weidman knows this is due or die for him, his last 3 fights could have gone either way, he's in his own backyard, and the crowd will ride him to victory tonight.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I really believe this is a good spot and value for Weidman.