Quote Originally Posted by GigaOuts:
Thanks MR219 for your thoughtful respond,
I haven't have a normal job for decade, I grind 8-10-tables 50nl for living for over 7-8yrs but could no longer beat the game. I can only beat fishes back in online poker boom days.
Now, I am try to make a living doing mma bet but it was difficult back than, they only have 1 ufc a month if you lucky but you already knew that. Now 3 ufc events in 8 days... that is awesome! plus Invicta, Bellator, and Wsof too. I don't know if I have what it take to do mma bet for living but 2yrs later & 36g+ profit I might have some skill.
Most match-up I bet around 1-3 units but there is usually 2 or 3 fight I feel confidence in where I like to lay 1g+ but than I get carry away. I keep betting more & more because the line keep getting better like the Martins fight. 5 unit base at -140, 5 unit base at -135, etc .. (huge flaws I need to fix before I go broke!)
Actually Lucas Martin vs Ramiro Hernandez, the line open at -265 on 5dimes (I cap him at -200), there are 2 max bet on Ramiro Hernandez cause the line to drop to -140, than the rest of the sport book copy the line. I can forgive Martins tapping out to Barboza but it is Barboza. The Larsen fight I think there is a weight discrepancy! I don't think Martins cutting any weight in that fight, he weigh in 153lbs & Larsen weigh in 156, so by fight time I think it is 153lbs vs 170lbs. Martins have to worry about the TD, it is difficult to defend the TD when there is 15lbs disadvantage. This fight is different I think, Martins striking will be sharp in this fight since Hernandez can not offer the same TD threat as Larsen.
But I do respect your opinion, don't really want to going against fellow capper that have a proving record. I likely hedge it down & have 5-10 unit on Martins by fight time. Thanks again, I hope we can profit nicely together before this sport mature like poker.
Wow, trying to make a living on gambling must be stressful...
I wish you continued success.
Yes, the line did open at -265. I must of clicked on betdsi which opened the fight at -140, which is directly beside 5dimes on the line tracker site I use.
Yes, Martins first 2 UFC fights were at 155, which makes his showing against Larsen that much worse (he should have had a huge speed advantage but was always getting completely outclassed). The threat of a takedown was definitely a possibility in that fight, but there was never a need for Larsen to mix it up as he was having so much success standing.
Now, Martins is cutting to 135. It is really hard to know how he will respond to his first weight cut...
Listen, I have been wrong many times before, but I just don't see any reason to lay juice with Martins in this scenario.
Good luck today!
. The takedown was there all match. When he had a hold of him, he refused to commit to it. Absolutely anger inducing...
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