Garrett Crochet had put together 9 consecutive starts without a bad outing until Wednesday......Wednesday outing wasn't horrible....3 earned runs is mediocre/borderline.....buit in such a case I look at the WHIP as a tie-breaker and it needs to be no worse than 1.33. His was a close call but 1.50 WHIP with 3 earned runs just makes the cut into my "BAD outing" category....barely......
Your results may vary.
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Garrett Crochet had put together 9 consecutive starts without a bad outing until Wednesday......Wednesday outing wasn't horrible....3 earned runs is mediocre/borderline.....buit in such a case I look at the WHIP as a tie-breaker and it needs to be no worse than 1.33. His was a close call but 1.50 WHIP with 3 earned runs just makes the cut into my "BAD outing" category....barely......
@fubah2 Not sure why you describe these winning streaks as tenuous unless you’re calling out the underlying data, which you’re not in general. Is there a high ERA or WHIP lurking in there?
@Ramanujan
Good point. I tried explaining this before but it's a good time to repeat
Calling out a consecutive game HOT STREAK is based on my personal data collection over the years.
I've found that pitchers (obviously GOOD ones!) will often sustain a HOT STREAK for awhile - usually up to 7 games....then the bottom drops out from under most of them. My chart & graph showing consecutive starts WITHOUT a BAD outing looks pretty much what most people would figure logically. Obviously a whole bunch of GOOD pitchers will enjoy 2 consecutive starts WITHOUT a BAD outing...and this will repeat itself multiple times a season. Then as you would expect, a whole bunch of times pitchers will enjoy 3 consecutive starts without a bad outing - BUT THIS OCCURS A LITTLE LESS OFTEN.....And the same for 4 consecutive.....then 5 consecutive ....then 6 consecutive, always with fewer occurances thru the season...and finally 7 consecutive starts without a bad outing. And that point is where the numbers really drop off. There still are occurances of 8, 9, 10+ consecutive games without a BAD outing but they are very few indeed. Hence the warning. Because the probability of a BAD outing occuring increases with each successive outing and right around 7 is where the numbers indicate it's a wise idea to PASS on those games where a starters has been fortunate enough to escape a BAD outing after so many starts. In short, when a GOOD pitcher first starts a streak, the probability of maintaining his norm and pitching well (or no worse than mediocre - is HIGH. At the beginning. By game 7 of a hot streak, my numbers indicate the probability has crossed the line into unfavorable odds and has flipped the other way.
BUT - that does not mean his team will lose. If he has great run support, even with a BAD outing but a good bullpen, many teams will survive and still win!
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Quote Originally Posted by Ramanujan:
@fubah2 Not sure why you describe these winning streaks as tenuous unless you’re calling out the underlying data, which you’re not in general. Is there a high ERA or WHIP lurking in there?
@Ramanujan
Good point. I tried explaining this before but it's a good time to repeat
Calling out a consecutive game HOT STREAK is based on my personal data collection over the years.
I've found that pitchers (obviously GOOD ones!) will often sustain a HOT STREAK for awhile - usually up to 7 games....then the bottom drops out from under most of them. My chart & graph showing consecutive starts WITHOUT a BAD outing looks pretty much what most people would figure logically. Obviously a whole bunch of GOOD pitchers will enjoy 2 consecutive starts WITHOUT a BAD outing...and this will repeat itself multiple times a season. Then as you would expect, a whole bunch of times pitchers will enjoy 3 consecutive starts without a bad outing - BUT THIS OCCURS A LITTLE LESS OFTEN.....And the same for 4 consecutive.....then 5 consecutive ....then 6 consecutive, always with fewer occurances thru the season...and finally 7 consecutive starts without a bad outing. And that point is where the numbers really drop off. There still are occurances of 8, 9, 10+ consecutive games without a BAD outing but they are very few indeed. Hence the warning. Because the probability of a BAD outing occuring increases with each successive outing and right around 7 is where the numbers indicate it's a wise idea to PASS on those games where a starters has been fortunate enough to escape a BAD outing after so many starts. In short, when a GOOD pitcher first starts a streak, the probability of maintaining his norm and pitching well (or no worse than mediocre - is HIGH. At the beginning. By game 7 of a hot streak, my numbers indicate the probability has crossed the line into unfavorable odds and has flipped the other way.
BUT - that does not mean his team will lose. If he has great run support, even with a BAD outing but a good bullpen, many teams will survive and still win!
Maybe he's thinking they're due to lose and/or have a bad outing
Correct. And I'm using my own personal data collection from over the years - following the same protocol for how I judge if it is a good, mediocre, or bad outing. In effect, a GOOD pitcher will enjoy a lot of outings without a bad one, but from time to time he will indeed have a bad day. After 7 consecutive starts without a BAD outing - my stats show the number of times it continues on to 8 or 9 or 10 drops off BIG TIME. In short, yes, he is "due" - though with good luck he may extend it another game or 2, but this doesn't happen too often.
Keep in mind as I said above: he may have a bad outing (marginally perhaps; not a full blown implosion!) but that does not guarantee a team loss!! They can still win despite that. Usually not of course...
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Quote Originally Posted by poolboy:
Maybe he's thinking they're due to lose and/or have a bad outing
Correct. And I'm using my own personal data collection from over the years - following the same protocol for how I judge if it is a good, mediocre, or bad outing. In effect, a GOOD pitcher will enjoy a lot of outings without a bad one, but from time to time he will indeed have a bad day. After 7 consecutive starts without a BAD outing - my stats show the number of times it continues on to 8 or 9 or 10 drops off BIG TIME. In short, yes, he is "due" - though with good luck he may extend it another game or 2, but this doesn't happen too often.
Keep in mind as I said above: he may have a bad outing (marginally perhaps; not a full blown implosion!) but that does not guarantee a team loss!! They can still win despite that. Usually not of course...
Quote Originally Posted by ruffcutter: Ok, as far as I can fathom, there have been no plays since at least 6/20. Unless there’s a secret decoder ring or something I should have access to. This is correct. Being extremely selective now as mid-June is typically struggle time for a lot of cappers including me.
fair enough and thanks for the reply
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by ruffcutter: Ok, as far as I can fathom, there have been no plays since at least 6/20. Unless there’s a secret decoder ring or something I should have access to. This is correct. Being extremely selective now as mid-June is typically struggle time for a lot of cappers including me.
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Home Team HEAVY FAVS (ie, -170 and up) 35 - 5 +25.12u (9 of those home wins by just 1 run) yowee ! astros and royals tonite ?! Will be interesting to see how long this trend of home teams with heavy juice continue to win. I have my doubts. Nevertheless, I am leaning ROYALS...
im biting on that one got the royals for -187
"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Home Team HEAVY FAVS (ie, -170 and up) 35 - 5 +25.12u (9 of those home wins by just 1 run) yowee ! astros and royals tonite ?! Will be interesting to see how long this trend of home teams with heavy juice continue to win. I have my doubts. Nevertheless, I am leaning ROYALS...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Home Team HEAVY FAVS (ie, -170 and up) 35 - 5 +25.12u (9 of those home wins by just 1 run) yowee ! astros and royals tonite ?! Will be interesting to see how long this trend of home teams with heavy juice continue to win. I have my doubts. Nevertheless, I am leaning ROYALS...
im biting on that one got the royals for -187
I think that's the best play on the board today. BoL
Of course, in baseball anything can happen...
0
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Home Team HEAVY FAVS (ie, -170 and up) 35 - 5 +25.12u (9 of those home wins by just 1 run) yowee ! astros and royals tonite ?! Will be interesting to see how long this trend of home teams with heavy juice continue to win. I have my doubts. Nevertheless, I am leaning ROYALS...
im biting on that one got the royals for -187
I think that's the best play on the board today. BoL
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