🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

Thank you, and Bol with your bets Tuesday!

Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:

GL tonight!

@TDHCentral

 Thank you, and Bol with your bets Tuesday!

While allowing 10 thru 5 innings is weak pitching,  he fanned a bunch and there was no score, so in my capping this goes down as a mediocre outing, and IMANAGA's streak of consecuitive games WITHOUT  getting roughed up now extends to 8 straight.

I made the greedy mistake of betting a HEAVY FAV when a review of my stats last night revealed that I am losing on the season with bets above -169.........

Sure enough, I'll pay the price of ignoring my own records, as Vazquez gets beatup for 5 earned runs  and 9 allowed on, in only 3 2/3 innings.  He's normally SOLID.....but

Let’s go Padres!!!

I am laying off this one. Was hoping to take TWINKIES again, but YANKEES crush righthanders and Paddack is struggling just to climb into mediocre status right now as it is.....Meanwhile Twinkies crush lefties, except they face a lefty who has at least achieved mediocre status, and add to this the YANKEES clearly own the better BP..... bats are more or less even though....

The line is where I figured it would be given all that so I'm laying off......Maybe tomorrow, or the next day 

Washy @ the MIGHTY WHITESOX, doubleheader

G1....I bet NATS -118....Williams/Flexen. Nats own the better offense by over a full run difference, a slight edge on the mound, and a DEFINITE EDGE in bullpens to back up those starters should they get in trouble, or routinely in the latter innings.
Going in, I make it a +1.5 run edge for NATS....

G2....I bet NATS -105....Parker/Fedde. Conventional wisdom shows that very frequently the winner of g1 then loses g2.....Never sure why that happens so often but I'm betting it's unlikely to occur here. We all know the CWS are struggling "bigly" this year. They just don't have the players. Every now and then they will have an exceptional day and/or their opp goes to sleep and has a horrible day. But most of the time they are outgunned and they have a weakass BP. Fedde could have a thin edge over Parker but not enough to ovecome the diff in bats. But one never knows...This could be a day when the Sox play above their heads and the NATS have a bad day....
Still, I gotta go with the odds, and I make it a +1.2 run edge for NATS....

BoL with your bets today, fellas!

NATS -118 g1  *BB

NATS -105 g2

Much more to follow...

Bad day at the office for me Monday: 2 - 6 -6.33u
But it's all part of the game. Tuesday is another day...

WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

The following STARTERS are riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT getting roughed up yet in that streak,

...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!   

  BLANCO, Astros

  Williams, Nationals G1 ....albeit facing the weakass Sox

Make no mistake, these dudes and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional. HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some streaks may continue beyond that by 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

BlewitJays @Orioles

Bassit/Bradish. Despite Jays very luckyass win in extra innings over the heavily favored Orioles yesterday, it's not by reason of being a better team. Same deal today. We start with Orioles having close to a one run edge at the plate PLUS a significant edge on the mound backed up by a much better pullpen. Typically the Jays are far better facing lefties than righties, let alone a GOOD one like Bradish. Only a .658 OPS v. righties.
Jays are expected to get back one of their best bats today, so this could be iffy.
Evenso, I make this one a solid +1.5 run edge for the O's to rebound.

BALTIMORE -160 *BB

Marlins @ Tiggers

Weathers (L) /Olson
For all their flaws, the Marlins own a good batting avg v. righthanders. Not so good OPS though. But today they face a really good one in OLSON, who is backed up by a significantly better bullpen!....Tiggers start with a thin edge at the plate but expand that with a better starter and better BP.
Right now the Marlins (just 5 - 16 on the road) are the weakest team in MLB. Weaker even than the lowly Rockies and WhiteSox. They'll have a good game now and then, sure, but Tiggers look in great shape with the best chance for another win today as they strive to turn around a bad 10 game stretch with this homestand v a weakling...
I make Detroit with a +1.4 run edge today.

TIGGERS -169 *BB

BoL with your bets today, fellas!

Much more to follow...

Pirates @Brewers

Priester/Ross

Pirates upset the Brewers yesterday despite being outgunned and facing a tough opposing starter. Luck happens in baseball.
Brewers are the better team, they ouygun the Pirates at the plate by close to a full run avg, have the better starter, and an edge in BP. A 3.86 ERA might not look too bad to many but look at his 4 starts: 3 of them were bad outings, including the last one v. the wweakass Angels If Priester had a proven record as a GOOD pitcher I might expect a rebound performance. But he doesn't. Last year he had a 7.74 ERA and a dreadful 1.70 WHIP. The young guy needs more time and I dunno that he gets better facing these ticked off Brewers on a 2 game skid.
ROSS otoh, has put a wonky April behind him and pitched very well his last 2 (@Cubs; @KC) allowing only 11 on in 11 innings and just 4 earned runs. And as a righty, he faces a Pirates team with one of the WORST BA and OPS v righties. I expect he will do well again.
I make the Brewers with a solid +1.5 run edge here in a turn-around win.

BREWERS -150  *BB

BoL with your bets today, fellas!

Much more to follow...

More to come...

Cleveland @TEXAS

Lively/Leiter

I don't get the Texas fav status at all.

Cleveland owns just a thin edge at the plate due to the fact they don't overpower righty pitchers, but Texas can....However, Cleveland has the MUCH BETTER starter and he's backed up by arguably the best bullpen in the majors should he get in trouble.
Rangers' Leiter, a young guy, surely needs a lot of work. In his only 2 games, he owns a dreadful 12.9 ERA and a wretched 2.35 WHIP against teams that don't bat as well against righties as Cleveland! And he never got past 4 ip before having to yield to a substandard Texas BP.
Well, I could be wrong but I have Cleveland penciled in with a +1.0 run edge overall, despite being listed as a dog. Rangers on a 4 game skid while Cleveland has soundly put behind them those 3 straight embarrassing losses to the lowly WhiteSox, rebounding with 2 consecutive, resounding 7 - 0 wins!
Not aware of any new lineup changes that might explain the dog status, so

Cleveland +105  *BB

BoL with your bets today, fellas!

More to follow...

Cubbies @BRAVES

Taillon/ Sale (L)

I have the Braves bats with a razor thin edge over the Cubs, but the Cubbies do CRUSH the ball v. lefties!....albeit Sale is an exceptional lefty thus far.
This is a close call. I have them dead-even!
Normally I would take the plus money dog in a coin-flip game but I keep losing when I do. Don't need the stress, so I'm laying off the Cubbies here.

Pass.

Cards @ANGELS

St.Louis is an enigma to me, playing w/o their best bat in the lineup....and winning.

Still, they give a small edge at the plate to the ANGELS in their venue.

And although Detmers is a mediocre starter, two things in his favor:

1/ he's coming off 3 poor outings (ie. it's past due for a rebound, so it's more likely)

2/ he's a lefty even if mediocre, and the Cardinals are second WORST in the league batting against lefties with a paltry .558 OPS

However, GRAY for the CARDS is terrific and if he can give them 6+ innings, then the Angels, who don't hit righties well, may be lucky to score 3 runs.

These teams appear to be headed in opposite directions this week, so CARDS at a reasonable line looks like the play here.

But I'm passing because it just looks too good to be true...

@fubah2

Rockies @PADRES

Mediocre Wacha v. EXCELLENT Gilbert

Rebound for Gilbert now, after he finally had a bad outing.
Yesterday I had a similar one-sided matchup, spotting the Padres a SOLID +2.0 run edge as a heavy fav.
They lost
Same deal today.

Except the line is even higher, and as a result, I am not touching this and risking another fluke loss on a heavy fav despite they own all the key edges, including the best batting avg (and high OPS) against righties in the league...

Now that I backed off, watch them win this one.....sigh

Reds @ Diamondbacks

Greene / Cecconi

This game looks close to even to me, with Arizona having a small edge overall. Another one where each team is trending in a different direction - but REDS won't just fold up the tent here. They are DUE for a good game, so this one looks like a low scoring affair and I am leaning toward grabbing under 9 in the alt-totals (maybe), as neither team hits righties well at all....

Otherwise, I don't see DBACKS with a large enough edge to justify this small fav line

Coin-flipper.

@OO7CRUSHER

 Thanks! ....and BoL with your bets today!

 Yesterday

the hometown Mariners beat a very good pitcher starting for the Royals  6 - 2.

Tonight

the Royals put up a very mediocre WACHA to oppose GILBERT who is an EXCELLENT starter that finally had that "bad outing" alert I posted about. That's out of the way now!   When a GOOD starter goes on a hot streak, then finally has a bad one, he almost always bounces back to normal high efficiency pitching once again in the game following....which is today.

Mariners only hold a sliver of an edge at the plate in this venue but they hold a better edge in bullpens.

That doesn't guarantee a win though.  His team must still produce the runs.....albeit against Wacha, I'm thinking this shouldn't be a problem.

MARINERS -159 @pinnacle 

Williams pitched very well once again today in G1.  While the game is still progress, the final result doesn't matter as Williams left after 5 innings, having allowed only 5 on base and just 2 earned runs.

So his consecutive streak without a BAD outing now stretcheds to 8

.

Oakland @Astros

Sears (L) /Blanco

Astros can hit lefties very well, and Sears is only mediocre.
The Astros have an edge at the plate but Oakland as an edge in bullpens.
BLANCO is VERY GOOD however and A's are not great against righties.
A's are starting another slump while Astros starting another good 10 game stretch.
I have Houston figured for a solid +1.1 run edge here, but those heavy odds give me pause fo another reason: BLANCO is riding the infamous 7-game hot streak without a bad outing.....yet.

PASS.