After giving it some thought and consideration - I've decided that in order to avoid daily repetitions of record copying and waver posting - I'd rather create one seasonal thread. It also serves my selfish goal of hearing and reading myself all in one place making hard for me to escape my mistakes on a previous day or self glorification after successful days. I just think it will be more constructive to have all the data under one roof for better or the worse.
So, my record so far is as follows: 9-3 consisting of 4-0 on Friday (https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/friday-mlb-103944347) resulting in a +$900 profit (P), 4-3 on Saturday (https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/saturday-mlb-103944545) resulting in a +$137 profit (P) and 1-1 on Sunday (https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/sunday-mlb-103944829) resulting in a +$142 profit (P).
I started with an initial bankroll of $5K and after 3 days my P/L (profit and loss) is +$1,079, thus turning my current bankroll into $6,079. I'm am very particular with financials not because I want to brag about the profitable conduct so far, but, because I strongly believe that the Money Management is the core of any successful financial endeavour and therefore should be transparent to me and to all thus forcing me to be disciplined and to follow what I preach.
The reason I post and write my reasons and leans are exactly that - self discipline. Once I wrote and committed myself knowing someone somewhere is reading my write ups and may also follow here and there - puts tons of responsibility on my shoulders and in some way that serves me the best first of all!!!
So, last few nights I was lucky, But, I can't promise you or myself to be that lucky every night. So, This is sort of a waver and a warning not o follow my picks blindly but to apply your common sense and experience!
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
After giving it some thought and consideration - I've decided that in order to avoid daily repetitions of record copying and waver posting - I'd rather create one seasonal thread. It also serves my selfish goal of hearing and reading myself all in one place making hard for me to escape my mistakes on a previous day or self glorification after successful days. I just think it will be more constructive to have all the data under one roof for better or the worse.
So, my record so far is as follows: 9-3 consisting of 4-0 on Friday (https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/friday-mlb-103944347) resulting in a +$900 profit (P), 4-3 on Saturday (https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/saturday-mlb-103944545) resulting in a +$137 profit (P) and 1-1 on Sunday (https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/sunday-mlb-103944829) resulting in a +$142 profit (P).
I started with an initial bankroll of $5K and after 3 days my P/L (profit and loss) is +$1,079, thus turning my current bankroll into $6,079. I'm am very particular with financials not because I want to brag about the profitable conduct so far, but, because I strongly believe that the Money Management is the core of any successful financial endeavour and therefore should be transparent to me and to all thus forcing me to be disciplined and to follow what I preach.
The reason I post and write my reasons and leans are exactly that - self discipline. Once I wrote and committed myself knowing someone somewhere is reading my write ups and may also follow here and there - puts tons of responsibility on my shoulders and in some way that serves me the best first of all!!!
So, last few nights I was lucky, But, I can't promise you or myself to be that lucky every night. So, This is sort of a waver and a warning not o follow my picks blindly but to apply your common sense and experience!
I do not believe there is a one particular system that can be used stay profitable over a long period of time cause the systems change and the HOUSE has best available tools at it's disposal. The odds makers employed by the books are very good and professional and most importantly - have access to data and immediate information the regular bettor like myself - has not. So, IMHO there is no point in trying to "beat the bookie", but rather apply strategies implementing mathematical models and always keeping in mind that "trying to beat the bookie" have resulted in millions of broken homes and books getting richer. If you can't beat them, and also can't join them, try to employ strategies where you an edge.
My edge is mathematical one based on quantitive trading models utilizing volatile markets. Now, the most volatile markets that I know are ones based on sporting events outcomes. Nough said. That strategy is the one that enables me to come out on profitable side even on the nights of 1-1 and keep profitable edge even with negative records. We will address that in the future. As I said - this a mathematically induced betting strategy and not a system. This very model allowed me to conduct myself for a pretty long period not needing to deposit any funds untill lately when I decided to round up my bakroll to $5K and start the season in an orderly fashion.
Goof luck to all of us!!!
0
I do not believe there is a one particular system that can be used stay profitable over a long period of time cause the systems change and the HOUSE has best available tools at it's disposal. The odds makers employed by the books are very good and professional and most importantly - have access to data and immediate information the regular bettor like myself - has not. So, IMHO there is no point in trying to "beat the bookie", but rather apply strategies implementing mathematical models and always keeping in mind that "trying to beat the bookie" have resulted in millions of broken homes and books getting richer. If you can't beat them, and also can't join them, try to employ strategies where you an edge.
My edge is mathematical one based on quantitive trading models utilizing volatile markets. Now, the most volatile markets that I know are ones based on sporting events outcomes. Nough said. That strategy is the one that enables me to come out on profitable side even on the nights of 1-1 and keep profitable edge even with negative records. We will address that in the future. As I said - this a mathematically induced betting strategy and not a system. This very model allowed me to conduct myself for a pretty long period not needing to deposit any funds untill lately when I decided to round up my bakroll to $5K and start the season in an orderly fashion.
Those bets are based on historical model reverse engineering those two teams seasonal performance and records in regard of ML and RL wins and losses. And remember - because of correct money management - even in the cases of losses - what matters is the long run performance
0
Bankroll $6,079
NY Yankees ML -145 $145
NY Yankees -1.5 +115 $100
LA Dodgers ML -164 $164
LA Dodgers -1.5 +105 $100
Those bets are based on historical model reverse engineering those two teams seasonal performance and records in regard of ML and RL wins and losses. And remember - because of correct money management - even in the cases of losses - what matters is the long run performance
So, the final say for today and I will wrap up at that unless some new picks will pop up based on temporary systems I employ (value picks manifesting anomaly between the money and the tickets, live bets during half times made to meddle or hedge, fading some "guru" when I know he or she are trying to balance the bets for the book etc): My picks may not look "sexy" or attractive and at times may be hard to take -but, they will be profitable in a long run as long as we manage our money right
0
So, the final say for today and I will wrap up at that unless some new picks will pop up based on temporary systems I employ (value picks manifesting anomaly between the money and the tickets, live bets during half times made to meddle or hedge, fading some "guru" when I know he or she are trying to balance the bets for the book etc): My picks may not look "sexy" or attractive and at times may be hard to take -but, they will be profitable in a long run as long as we manage our money right
If I may -since it is the last game of College hoops this season - I will include here the final: Florida Gators ML -120 $120
The gators are simply a better and more resilient team than Duke was. Duke was shocked the minute they were behind while the Gators have just stages a great comeback in the semis against Auburn. I like Emmanuel Sharp a lot and wish him all the best in the upcoming professional career. I know his father Derek and what kind of a clutch player he was with Maccabi Tel Aviv. But, tonight -he will be matched by the Gators that everyone on their roster resembles Sharp. Besides Sharp - I have a hard time to see anyone being able to match the Gators. But, being careful - I will take the ML
0
If I may -since it is the last game of College hoops this season - I will include here the final: Florida Gators ML -120 $120
The gators are simply a better and more resilient team than Duke was. Duke was shocked the minute they were behind while the Gators have just stages a great comeback in the semis against Auburn. I like Emmanuel Sharp a lot and wish him all the best in the upcoming professional career. I know his father Derek and what kind of a clutch player he was with Maccabi Tel Aviv. But, tonight -he will be matched by the Gators that everyone on their roster resembles Sharp. Besides Sharp - I have a hard time to see anyone being able to match the Gators. But, being careful - I will take the ML
I know at times it my sound ridiculous - but, in my particular strategy using Hidden Markov Model - each loss gets us closer to a bigger and twice as profitable win as long as I maintain the discipline and await patiently the next play in my "volatility hunt". In order to be able to survive the surge and come out on a profitable side - sticking to Kelly Criteria divided by as much as 8 and Markov mathematical models is a must along with sound money management and timely sticking. So, what we have so far up our sleeve?
Money Management: Started with $5K and after going 11-9 over the course of 4 nights and after opening with tra ra ram 4-0 and +$900, we are now with $337 profit and two very strong Martingale candidates we already paid for: NY Yankees and LA Dodgers. We are also quietly awaiting for the Mets and the Padres to get in the position of strong Martingale as well. The first two have historically proven they are hard to sweep and that makes our next choices even better.
If you want to find out more yourself about the teams sweeping or being swept, avoiding being swept of being prevented from sweeping in the last game of the series, or, was it two game, three game or four game series - then research yourself and get your own conclusions.
The Tigers are on incredible 7-1 run winning 5 straight and on the verge of sweeping the Yankees in a 3 game series. Last season, the Yankees played 21 3 game series on the road. They were never swept and altogether were only once in a position to be swept, but won the last game of the series. The Tigers played 19 3 game series at home. They swept the opposition twice and were prevented sweeping the opposition twice by losing the last game.
Why am I emphasising on sweeps in the series? Cause that shows team culture and readiness of a team to extra mile but not to be embarrassed by being swept. The most impressive detail is ZERO times being swept away from home in the column of the Yankees. Why change now? Anyways - all I say might sound like a bunch of crap if the Yankees do lose tonight and I will be the court idiot being led by manipulative stats - but, I can't overlook such data and go handicapping ignoring that.
NY Yankees ML -147 $882
NY Yankees -1.5 +120 $600
0
I know at times it my sound ridiculous - but, in my particular strategy using Hidden Markov Model - each loss gets us closer to a bigger and twice as profitable win as long as I maintain the discipline and await patiently the next play in my "volatility hunt". In order to be able to survive the surge and come out on a profitable side - sticking to Kelly Criteria divided by as much as 8 and Markov mathematical models is a must along with sound money management and timely sticking. So, what we have so far up our sleeve?
Money Management: Started with $5K and after going 11-9 over the course of 4 nights and after opening with tra ra ram 4-0 and +$900, we are now with $337 profit and two very strong Martingale candidates we already paid for: NY Yankees and LA Dodgers. We are also quietly awaiting for the Mets and the Padres to get in the position of strong Martingale as well. The first two have historically proven they are hard to sweep and that makes our next choices even better.
If you want to find out more yourself about the teams sweeping or being swept, avoiding being swept of being prevented from sweeping in the last game of the series, or, was it two game, three game or four game series - then research yourself and get your own conclusions.
The Tigers are on incredible 7-1 run winning 5 straight and on the verge of sweeping the Yankees in a 3 game series. Last season, the Yankees played 21 3 game series on the road. They were never swept and altogether were only once in a position to be swept, but won the last game of the series. The Tigers played 19 3 game series at home. They swept the opposition twice and were prevented sweeping the opposition twice by losing the last game.
Why am I emphasising on sweeps in the series? Cause that shows team culture and readiness of a team to extra mile but not to be embarrassed by being swept. The most impressive detail is ZERO times being swept away from home in the column of the Yankees. Why change now? Anyways - all I say might sound like a bunch of crap if the Yankees do lose tonight and I will be the court idiot being led by manipulative stats - but, I can't overlook such data and go handicapping ignoring that.
Using the same principal on the Dodgers at Washington, but, with lesser grade since the Dodgers were swept twice out of 20 series on the road as well as the Nationals are not streaking like the Tigers and there is no edge like fading streaking Detroit.
LA Dodgers -1.5 -118 $354
0
Using the same principal on the Dodgers at Washington, but, with lesser grade since the Dodgers were swept twice out of 20 series on the road as well as the Nationals are not streaking like the Tigers and there is no edge like fading streaking Detroit.
I know at times it my sound ridiculous - but, in my particular strategy using Hidden Markov Model - each loss gets us closer to a bigger and twice as profitable win as long as I maintain the discipline and await patiently the next play in my "volatility hunt". In order to be able to survive the surge and come out on a profitable side - sticking to Kelly Criteria divided by as much as 8 and Markov mathematical models is a must along with sound money management and timely sticking. So, what we have so far up our sleeve? Money Management: Started with $5K and after going 11-9 over the course of 4 nights and after opening with tra ra ram 4-0 and +$900, we are now with $337 profit and two very strong Martingale candidates we already paid for: NY Yankees and LA Dodgers. We are also quietly awaiting for the Mets and the Padres to get in the position of strong Martingale as well. The first two have historically proven they are hard to sweep and that makes our next choices even better. If you want to find out more yourself about the teams sweeping or being swept, avoiding being swept of being prevented from sweeping in the last game of the series, or, was it two game, three game or four game series - then research yourself and get your own conclusions. The Tigers are on incredible 7-1 run winning 5 straight and on the verge of sweeping the Yankees in a 3 game series. Last season, the Yankees played 21 3 game series on the road. They were never swept and altogether were only once in a position to be swept, but won the last game of the series. The Tigers played 19 3 game series at home. They swept the opposition twice and were prevented sweeping the opposition twice by losing the last game. Why am I emphasising on sweeps in the series? Cause that shows team culture and readiness of a team to extra mile but not to be embarrassed by being swept. The most impressive detail is ZERO times being swept away from home in the column of the Yankees. Why change now? Anyways - all I say might sound like a bunch of crap if the Yankees do lose tonight and I will be the court idiot being led by manipulative stats - but, I can't overlook such data and go handicapping ignoring that. NY Yankees ML -147 $882 NY Yankees -1.5 +120 $600
Well, we were almost there with 2 outs and 4-0 and even 4-1, but, a circus has prevented us cashing in big. So, we are even out so far. 1-1 won $600 on a ML and lost $600 on a run line
0
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
I know at times it my sound ridiculous - but, in my particular strategy using Hidden Markov Model - each loss gets us closer to a bigger and twice as profitable win as long as I maintain the discipline and await patiently the next play in my "volatility hunt". In order to be able to survive the surge and come out on a profitable side - sticking to Kelly Criteria divided by as much as 8 and Markov mathematical models is a must along with sound money management and timely sticking. So, what we have so far up our sleeve? Money Management: Started with $5K and after going 11-9 over the course of 4 nights and after opening with tra ra ram 4-0 and +$900, we are now with $337 profit and two very strong Martingale candidates we already paid for: NY Yankees and LA Dodgers. We are also quietly awaiting for the Mets and the Padres to get in the position of strong Martingale as well. The first two have historically proven they are hard to sweep and that makes our next choices even better. If you want to find out more yourself about the teams sweeping or being swept, avoiding being swept of being prevented from sweeping in the last game of the series, or, was it two game, three game or four game series - then research yourself and get your own conclusions. The Tigers are on incredible 7-1 run winning 5 straight and on the verge of sweeping the Yankees in a 3 game series. Last season, the Yankees played 21 3 game series on the road. They were never swept and altogether were only once in a position to be swept, but won the last game of the series. The Tigers played 19 3 game series at home. They swept the opposition twice and were prevented sweeping the opposition twice by losing the last game. Why am I emphasising on sweeps in the series? Cause that shows team culture and readiness of a team to extra mile but not to be embarrassed by being swept. The most impressive detail is ZERO times being swept away from home in the column of the Yankees. Why change now? Anyways - all I say might sound like a bunch of crap if the Yankees do lose tonight and I will be the court idiot being led by manipulative stats - but, I can't overlook such data and go handicapping ignoring that. NY Yankees ML -147 $882 NY Yankees -1.5 +120 $600
Well, we were almost there with 2 outs and 4-0 and even 4-1, but, a circus has prevented us cashing in big. So, we are even out so far. 1-1 won $600 on a ML and lost $600 on a run line
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