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5 Inning Discussion Thread - THURSDAY 8-13-09

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Posted: #1
Fellas, until Element gets going, here's a place to put stuff.


 
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Posted: #2
Also, here are some results from the Wednesday picks people liked:

Royals-Twins over 5 -- won
(nice job Naciremadream!)

White Sox -- push
Phillies -- won
Marlins -- lost
(thanks backdoor cover... 1-1 with a dog winner is a winner in my book)

Toronto -- lost
Kansas City -- lost
Mets -- lost
Mets-D'backs over 5 -- lost
(ouch! the rest of us got creamed)

Gfoss and Goalline, we need you back !!!

 
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Posted: #3
Hou/Fla over 5......
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by -5innings:

Also, here are some results from the Wednesday picks people liked:

Toronto -- lost
Kansas City -- lost



I know it's a cliche, but we have to be very careful about betting against certain teams at home. 

There are some teams like the Twins and Yankees that I simply won't bet against at home -- I may lay off betting for them, but I like having every bounce in my favor.

By the way, this is not an I told you so, not exactly.  I kind of liked the Royals enough to lay off that game, and I didn't take the Yankees because I don't like the way they close home stands.

So, coulda shoulda woulda. 

Keep up the thread, guys. 



 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by atlheatholder:

Hou/Fla over 5......


With those two starters, they ought to make it...

Anyone have any idea what's happened with Houston's bats? 

They seem to have exploded in recent days, even without Lance Berkman. 


 
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Posted: #6
berkmans back partner
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

berkmans back partner


Ooops -- duh -- thanks !

(I was actually wondering what happened Tuesday, when he didn't play -- and I just took it for granted he was still out Wednesday.)

Thanks gcnmoo.

 
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Posted: #8

The Houston-Florida over looks really good, zu Anfang.  Both teams scoring, and two of their weakest pitchers going.

Fly in ointment:  Last 10 games, Marlins score 4.2 runs per 9i versus lefties; Astros, 1.9.  (Both starters LHP).

Of course, Berkman's return changes the whole lineup....  but something to consider.


 
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Posted: #9
Guys, the good news is, Goalline Bob's son says he is out of the hospital and recovering; the better news is, he's given us some picks for Thursday:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Goalline Bob's 5 Plays of the 5-inning Day
(You'll be sorry if you bypass these wagers)

1. Lee-Phillies -- pumps the Cubs into the medical-waste Dumster, heheh; Phillies win in 5.

2. Feldman-Rangers -- it is said that some ancient South American Indians performed heart surgery; not today, as Texas
operates on the Tribe.

3. Vein-lander-Tigers -- gets Detroit past the red-blooded Sox. 

4. Coronary Corpuscle Sabathia, for the Yankees, has enough to put Seattle to sleep.  

5. Hampton-Astros -- East meets West; East beats West...  sorry, couldn't think of an operative pun -- but the pick list is done and we have to do something to sew it up.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(From goalline, with an editorial flair or two added.)


 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by gfoss59:

Guys, the good news is, Goalline Bob's son says he is out of the hospital and recovering; the better news is, he's given us some picks for Thursday:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Goalline Bob's 5 Plays of the 5-inning Day
(You'll be sorry if you bypass these wagers)



        

Go Bob Go !

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by gfoss59:



Goalline Bob's 5 Plays of the 5-inning Day
(You'll be sorry if you bypass these wagers)



Here's my 2 cents guys.  Looks like you all only have love for the roadies tomorrow, so what I have to say may sound critical, but what the heck -- we were all like 1-57 yesterday; it's time to critique ourselves and bounce back.

1. Lee-Phillies -- I love this pick.  I won't bet it to stick with my discipline, but I'm definitely off the Cubs.

2. Feldman-Rangers -- I sorta like this.  Sowers has actually done well and the Tribe is at home.  I may take Cleveland a little.

3. Vein-lander-Tigers -- Verlander is pitched out and pooped, like Jackson.  Check their pitch counts.  I will lay off. 

4. Coronary Corpuscle Sabathia, for the Yankees, will try to pitch a third straight Yankee win for only the second time this year.  (The first time he did it, two of the starts were against Baltimore.)  Should be able to hold Seattle down. 

5. Hampton-Astros -- ehhh.  Ahhh....  Ehhhh...  As you may suspect, I have trouble picturing the Astros taking this series. 

Nobody has mentioned my favorite play, Marquis and Colorado.  I know he's not the best first 5, but Pirates starters terrible on the road, and Rockies have mojo.  Take that and get out of Denver !
And thanks for the good news on BOB ! 

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by HomerTrack:

 

Nobody has mentioned my favorite play, Marquis and Colorado.  I know he's not the best first 5, but Pirates starters terrible on the road, and Rockies have mojo.  Take that and get out of Denver !



Yah, Marquis is on my "list of 9 guys" that are better over the game than in the F5 -- it includes Buehrle, Pettitte, Beckett, Chamberlain, Sabathia at last check, Wakefield, and some others. 

(As you might suspect, mostly guys with pretty good hitters behind them...  decent bullpens...  i.e., their teams fish out a lot of wins late in games.  Guys much better in 5 include Greinke, Halladay, Romero, and so on -- per expectation, weaker teams, weaker bullpens, declining team mojo.)


 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by gfoss59:



Yah, Marquis is on my "list of 9 guys" that are better over the game than in the F5 -- it includes Buehrle, Pettitte, Beckett, Chamberlain, Sabathia at last check, Wakefield, and some others. 

(As you might suspect, mostly guys with pretty good hitters behind them...  decent bullpens...  i.e., their teams fish out a lot of wins late in games.  Guys much better in 5 include Greinke, Halladay, Romero, and so on -- per expectation, weaker teams, weaker bullpens, declining team mojo.)



So really,  you would take Marquis-Colorado for 9 innings, right? 

I know this is the 5-inning thread, but I'd just as soon make the best bet, regardless of what box it fits in.


 
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Posted: #14

I'm also really thinking hard about Detroit-Boston over -- a lot better than I like either side in this case.

Verlander is worn out, and Buchholz is terrible -- may as well have Smoltz and Mark Fidrych out there.

Boston is such a different team at home and with J. Bay back in the lineup.

No Yuke, but everyone else -- and there won't be any funny business keeping guys off the plate, they will be able to crowd away for both sides.

I've got to believe they get to 5 runs quickly.


 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by HomerTrack:


I'm also really thinking hard about Detroit-Boston over -- a lot better than I like either side in this case.



It sounds right, I would just check the lineups and matchups.  I know Verlander has some troubles with the Sox (most guys do) and on the road (4.7 ER).  But I believe he has a good day split (1.8). 

I didn't see Victor last night, and of course Cabrera got, ahm, hit in the hand.  So it's not a perfect storm.  But a good one.

 
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Posted: #16
59 -- is Goalline going to post a parlay?


 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by -5innings:

59 -- is Goalline going to post a parlay?



Maybe and maybe not but let's take it easy on the guy --

I posted his picks above...  and they're actually fairly spaced out...  so if you want, you could construct a couple of your own that run throughout the day for late hedging, if appropriate.

And you may like something not on his card -- I'm half persuaded on that Boston-Detroit over.

 
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Posted: #18
On paper Phillies look like a strong play.Lee in a groove I can see him going the 5 and giving up not more than 1.Dempster it appears will give up more than 2.

Good luck
 
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Posted: #19
For example you could do (and this is just illustrational):

Texas (12 ET)
Lee (220 ET)
Hampton (7 ET)

Detroit (130 ET)
Lee (220 ET)
Sabathia (10 ET)

(Or sub in propositions you like better, such as, in my case, Boston-Detroit over, or putting Lee and/or Colorado at 3 p.m. on the 9 inning runline.  Usw.)

 
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Posted: #20
That line on Detroit has really moved -- Verlander's a dog now. 

Is this an opportunity, or will they have someone sitting out, including or maybe even beyond Cabrera?

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by gfoss59:

For example you could do (and this is just illustrational):

Texas (12 ET)
Lee (220 ET)
Hampton (7 ET)

Detroit (130 ET)
Lee (220 ET)
Sabathia (10 ET)

(Or sub in propositions you like better, such as, in my case, Boston-Detroit over, or putting Lee and/or Colorado at 3 p.m. on the 9 inning runline.  Usw.)



59 -- thanks, very helpful

Everyone else -- sorry about the Bozo above.  I've posted a request they remove the item.

 
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Posted: #22
Over 5.5, Pads and Brewers.
 
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Posted: #23
So far so good on Bob's call on Texas, guys.  One more inning to go. 

 
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Posted: #24
Over in SD-Milk,but whats better-5 or 9 innings?
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Over in SD-Milk,but whats better-5 or 9 innings?


Good question, JEG --

Considering neither bullen is special, and Carrillo is new, I would think you'd want to go 9 rather than 5, give them some time to figure out the new guy. 

Whenever I'm uncertain about something like this, I do some of each -- I mean, some for 5i, some for 9i.

I see that the game is off already, so it's academic -- sorry, had to run around a bit this morning. 

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