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7/19 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #26
Thanks Si1ly! I've seeking winners, but have found mostly loser picks.  Fair warning: I'm tailing you so expect your picks to be jinxed!

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I like it enough at the current line that I didn't give much thought to where the line would move.  If I miss out on 10 cents of value, so be it.

The Twins have the 3rd best offense against lefties and Baltimore has one of the worst offenses against righties.  I didn't really look much past that.. I figure the pitching match-up is relatively even but the Twins have a huge advantage in offensive probability and they have home field.  At -110, it's really a no-brainer.  My model confirms this as it has the Twins at -175.
 
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Posted: #27
 
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Posted: #28
Action wager on Adam Scott to win the Open Championship (+2800)

Action wager on Oosthuizen (+130) over McIlroy round one
 
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Posted: #29
si1ly my man! this is the 1st time that i will bet on golf.. is this the 1st round 3 balls? coz it says Mcilroy v oosthuizen v bradley.. i cant find the oosthuizen v mcilroy only.. enlighten me..
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Oh I see, you're on the under in Atlanta.  Checking with the model it looks good.  I'll have to check the weather, line-ups and look into the pitchers a little more.  Good luck!
From the AJC:


 Tim Hudson (3.80 ERA), who started the season on the DL recovering from back surgery and currently pitches with bone spurs in his ankle.


Chipper Jones

Probably out of lineup Thursday?

“I would say so, just because when I had to back up on that ground ball [in the 11th inning, bounced throw to first] it was tough to plant my right leg and really be able to push off. It was kind of all-arm over there and that’s why you saw it come up short. It didn’t feel good when I got here today, and it progressively got worse.”


 
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Posted: #31
Thanks for sharing, BOL man
 
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Posted: #32
Thanks BOL!
 
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Posted: #33
Si1ly

Cheers
 
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Posted: #34
Sil
 
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Posted: #35
Yo Si1ly! I had a question about the GB/FB statistic on your spread sheet. (Starting Pitching/Fundamentals)
What does GB/FB stand for? It seems to have a big influence on the power ranking.

Case in point: Volquez vs Harrell
Volquez has better stats across the board, but Harrell has a better GB/FB and power ranking.

Thanks again for all your spread sheets.
 
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Posted: #36
Nice call on Adam Scott. You got the early lead
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by cardifkill:

Yo Si1ly! I had a question about the GB/FB statistic on your spread sheet. (Starting Pitching/Fundamentals)
What does GB/FB stand for? It seems to have a big influence on the power ranking.

Case in point: Volquez vs Harrell
Volquez has better stats across the board, but Harrell has a better GB/FB and power ranking.

Thanks again for all your spread sheets.


I'm not si1ly but I'm sure GB/FB stands for ground ball and fly ball.  Therefore, it's the ratio each pitcher has.
 
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Posted: #38
BOL to you, buddy! 
 
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Posted: #39
Good Luck Today...
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:



I'm not si1ly but I'm sure GB/FB stands for ground ball and fly ball.  Therefore, it's the ratio each pitcher has.


Gotcha. Thanks, that makes a lot more sense. I was mind boggled there for a second. That might be a good stat to fade at Petco, or any pitcher park

 
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Posted: #41
I guess that would also be the stat to look at when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley etc.
 
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Posted: #42
si1ly, any thoughts on Atlanta today?  It seems Bumgarner doesn't fare as well when he's not on the west coast. 

Also, your model likes the Fish but why do I all of a sudden fear betting against the Cubbies?
 
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Posted: #43
you are the best, Si1ly.   good luck everyone  
 
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Posted: #44
That over is ridiculous! My local has it at 8.5 and climbing.  Great get.
 
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Posted: #45

MIAMI

thanks for the data Si1Ly

 
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Posted: #46
Good start on that Adam Scott to win the Open bet... Wish I had seen this earlier. Tailed you on the Oosthuizen over McIlroy bet tho.
 
 
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Posted: #47
weird movement on the Yankees game... They are better in every category and Garcia should do well in a big stadium with his  high FB/GB rate. Yet line is moving opposing way. Kind of getting me worried
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