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8/20 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #26
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

How about over 9 -115?

Even better!  
 
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Posted: #28
Thanks for clarifying sir. The only thing that may keep me off RL is the fact that they are home. This matchup on the road would get me the full 9, and I don't think Zona will be batting in the ninth in this game.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


They had to travel from New York City to Chicago.  That's a 2 hour flight and one hour time zone shit.  They've sat in cabs longer trying to cross midtown.  Besides, it's a night game and the Yankees are a veteran squad.  The travel won't affect them one bit.  As for the Red Sox hangover, maybe, but I don't buy into this much.


Fair enough, but on the surface the public sees two roughly equal pitchers on the mound, so they'll make their decision based on the teams.  Public perception of the Yankees is high, public perception of the White Sox is low.  Yet the line comes out Yankees at -110.  I always assume the line makers know more than I do.

Sorry if this is more input than you cared to hear about in your thread!  This is about you and your thoughts, not me. 

BOL today   
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



Fair enough, but on the surface the public sees two roughly equal pitchers on the mound, so they'll make their decision based on the teams.  Public perception of the Yankees is high, public perception of the White Sox is low.  Yet the line comes out Yankees at -110.  I always assume the line makers know more than I do.

Sorry if this is more input than you cared to hear about in your thread!  This is about you and your thoughts, not me. 

BOL today   

No.. keep it coming.  This is what makes this forum useful.  It wouldn't be a gamble if there wasn't an other side to the coin.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Even better!  

I figure you would say that but was thinking of the -115 versus +105. But I am paying a little more for the possibility of a push. Thanks for the quick response. Locking in 9 before it goes to 9'. Thanks again!!
 
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Posted: #32
My line was bet down to Over 9 -105 in AZ/Miami!! Pulled trigger... hoping I didn't miss something.

Any value on NY Mets RL?  Dickey at home against Colorado!
 
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Posted: #33
I can't believe your model suggests the Indians should be a slight favorite with Ubaldo pitching tonight.  He has to be the worst road pitcher in the league this year.  Me so confused...
 
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Posted: #34
Arizona total down to 9 and juice going down. I wonder if heavy money came on the under 9'?
 
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Posted: #35

Stupid Quote button still doesn't work, what is the syntax to quote?

Regarding the NYY playing after BOS question, here is what I found.  Not sure how to cap this, do you look for identical situation (i.e. NYY played BOS at home and then goes on road the next day) or any game after NYY played BOS regardless of home/away or day off in between?  Below is from 2009 till now:

NYY played BOS at home and then goes on road the next day stats: 2-1-1 first half and 0-4 game.  First half over/under 3-1.  Game over/under - 2-2. 

NYY on road next day if they played BOS @ BOS: 0-2 first half and 0-2 game.  First half over/under 1-1.  Game over/under - 0-2. 

NYY @ home after playing BOS: 4-5 first half and 5-4 game.  First half over/under 7-2.  Game over/under - 4-4-1. 

So, to summarize if NYY is on road the next day after playing BOS they are 0-6 full game.   

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Scotty2Hottie19:

My line was bet down to Over 9 -105 in AZ/Miami!! Pulled trigger... hoping I didn't miss something.

Any value on NY Mets RL?  Dickey at home against Colorado!

White has been terrible and Dickey has been an All-Star... so the Mets look great on paper.  I'm not going to play it, but I don't know why.  Just don't feel like betting on the Mets I guess.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:

I can't believe your model suggests the Indians should be a slight favorite with Ubaldo pitching tonight.  He has to be the worst road pitcher in the league this year.  Me so confused...

Yeah, the model definitely doesn't have this game right.  Cleveland isn't trying while Seattle is.  Their offensive performance is lagging way behind their season numbers.  Millwood has pitched better as of late and Ubaldo has an ERA of 11 or something in his last few starts.  It's Seattle or nothing in this game.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

Arizona total down to 9 and juice going down. I wonder if heavy money came on the under 9'?

Maybe.  I don't like the line movement, but what can I tell ya, I still like what I see and I locked my price in too early I guess.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

So, to summarize if NYY is on road the next day after playing BOS they are 0-6 full game.   



Thanks for digging this up.  Definitely something to consider when looking at the Yankees today.  I still want to see the line-ups before deciding.

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


White has been terrible and Dickey has been an All-Star... so the Mets look great on paper.  I'm not going to play it, but I don't know why.  Just don't feel like betting on the Mets I guess.

Paying a super premium on the Mets and who knows which Colorado offense shows up tonight. I would pass
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Both pitchers are in the top 10 over the last 30 days.  There is basically nobody in the league pitching at a higher level than these two.  It's a big game with playoff implications for both teams.  I expect nothing short of an epic pitching duel.  The total opened at under 6.5 heavily juiced for a reason.  It's since fallen to 6, which is fair value in my book.  Still, I fully expect to see a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 ballgame.  I would be very surprised to see either team get after these pitchers.  I'm on the under in this game at 6 (-110).

what do you think about playing the Giants ?
 
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Posted: #42
Yanks are 0-7 and 2-10 in their next game when they play on the road after facing the Redsox
 
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Posted: #43
bafan, what do you mean 0-7 and 2-10?
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by MIKECOUU78:


what do you think about playing the Giants ?

Value is on the Giants, but I think the high line on the Dodgers tell you all you need to know.  Dodgers win.
 
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Posted: #45
I have a strong under lean in marlins diamondbacks. Gonna look deeper after seeing this. Thanks for posting silly
 
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Posted: #46

si1ly, I need your opinion on two things lol.. I see you already locked in on Dbacks and Marlins over because you can see both teams putting up 5+, but

1) Which team would you feel most comfortable playing the Team Total over with, Miami or the Dbacks? (Team Total #'s aren't released yet) I lean Dbacks because you got Buerhle in your bottom 30 pitchers list..

2) For the Dodgers/Giants game, would you feel safer with Dodgers ml or Giants Team Total Under 3? (Team Total #'s aren't released yet)

Thanks buddy

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Junior316:

si1ly, I need your opinion on two things lol.. I see you already locked in on Dbacks and Marlins over because you can see both teams putting up 5+, but

1) Which team would you feel most comfortable playing the Team Total over with, Miami or the Dbacks? (Team Total #'s aren't released yet) I lean Dbacks because you got Buerhle in your bottom 30 pitchers list..

2) For the Dodgers/Giants game, would you feel safer with Dodgers ml or Giants Team Total Under 3? (Team Total #'s aren't released yet)

Thanks buddy


You'll be able to get 4 (-115) with the Marlins TT Over.  I suspect that will have more value than he 4.5 (-130) TT Over I bet they'll release for the Diamondbacks.

Although I think the Dodgers win, I'm only basing that off of the -160 line that is set in their favor.  A close low scoring game like this with two pitchers performing like aces should see neither team favored by more than -145.  The extra boost to the Dodger line indicates to me that books are protecting that side of the action.  If the books think the Dodgers win, so do I.  But they were smart.  They set the Dodgers so expensive that nobody like me would want to follow.  They've over juiced them, forcing value onto the Giants.  I would only recommend the Dodgers if they were part of a moneyline parlay.  As for the team totals, I have the full game under 6 and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see both teams go under their total.  Obviously not a lot of value betting the Giants team total under, but the full game doesn't offer much better.  I'd still recommend full game under as the best bet on this game, but the team totals will suffice if you must.
 
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Posted: #48
Genius! You put things in perspective so well. This is the third or fourth time I've seen you say that oddsmakers are protecting one side or the other and each previous time, you've been correct.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


You'll be able to get 4 (-115) with the Marlins TT Over.  I suspect that will have more value than he 4.5 (-130) TT Over I bet they'll release for the Diamondbacks.

Although I think the Dodgers win, I'm only basing that off of the -160 line that is set in their favor.  A close low scoring game like this with two pitchers performing like aces should see neither team favored by more than -145.  The extra boost to the Dodger line indicates to me that books are protecting that side of the action.  If the books think the Dodgers win, so do I.  But they were smart.  They set the Dodgers so expensive that nobody like me would want to follow.  They've over juiced them, forcing value onto the Giants.  I would only recommend the Dodgers if they were part of a moneyline parlay.  As for the team totals, I have the full game under 6 and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see both teams go under their total.  Obviously not a lot of value betting the Giants team total under, but the full game doesn't offer much better.  I'd still recommend full game under as the best bet on this game, but the team totals will suffice if you must.

So under 6 is a possible second play?
 
 
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Posted: #50

Locked in:

10:10 EST - San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers Under 6 (-110)
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