Andrew McCutchen and Jung Ho Kang are both benched today for the Pirates, and yet the line is still +128. Starting lineup splits show an advantage for the Brewers at .408/.699 vs the Pirates at .376/.668. Now, you may think the Pirates still being heavily favored is because Liriano is better than Jungmann? I disagree. Sure the Pirates have won the last 11 games that Liriano has started, but with a 3.32 ERA over those starts, he benefited from great run support. Jungmann in 15 starts this year has a 2.48 ERA and has a 1.50 ERA at home. He's faced the Pirates twice this year and beat them handily, giving up 2 runs in 14 innings, and one of those starts was his major league debut. There is no advantage in Liriano over Jungmann, and there is no advantage today in bats for the Pirates without their #3 or #5 hitters in the lineup. Pirates are a false favorite and Brewers are still getting +128. Great value.
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Brewers ML +128 ($1000 to win $1280)
Andrew McCutchen and Jung Ho Kang are both benched today for the Pirates, and yet the line is still +128. Starting lineup splits show an advantage for the Brewers at .408/.699 vs the Pirates at .376/.668. Now, you may think the Pirates still being heavily favored is because Liriano is better than Jungmann? I disagree. Sure the Pirates have won the last 11 games that Liriano has started, but with a 3.32 ERA over those starts, he benefited from great run support. Jungmann in 15 starts this year has a 2.48 ERA and has a 1.50 ERA at home. He's faced the Pirates twice this year and beat them handily, giving up 2 runs in 14 innings, and one of those starts was his major league debut. There is no advantage in Liriano over Jungmann, and there is no advantage today in bats for the Pirates without their #3 or #5 hitters in the lineup. Pirates are a false favorite and Brewers are still getting +128. Great value.
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