9/4 Friday MLB -- YTD 51-29 +$26,680.37

YTD: 51-29 +$26,680.37

Return on Risk: 26.19%

Today:

Yankees -1 ($585 to win $519.75) manufactured using RL and ML

Red Sox -1 ($580 to win $412) manufactured using RL and ML

Mets RL -1.5 -108 ($600 to win $555.56)

Pirates ML +135 ($500 to win $675)

Rockies 1st 5 ML -110 ($600 to win $545.45)

Rangers ML +140 ($500 to win $700)

Dodgers ML -120 ($600 to win $500)

Analysis:

In 5 career starts, the 21 year old rookie, Severino, has looked very good with a 2.17 ERA and recording one strikeout per inning. In 6 August starts, Odorizzi has a 4.33 ERA, which is good for his worst monthly performance. Last year, Odorizzi started to fall off in August and September, with ERAs of about 4.80 in both months. I believe fatigue may be beginning to set in, and I much prefer the fresher arm in Severino. The Yankee bats seem to have woken up, and they have hit Odorizzi for a good average over his career. Yankees bats hit right better than the Rays, and I'll take the fresher pitcher and better bats to win.

Rookie southpaw Adam Morgan has had pedestrian numbers in 12 starts with a 4.03 ERA. Meanwhile, after struggling for much of the year, Joe Kelly had a 2.68 ERA in 6 starts in August, and the Red Sox won every game. His last 4 starts were impressive quality outings. The Red Sox have hit left at .416/.745 vs the Phillies against right at .386/.683. Red Sox have the better bats and the hotter pitcher.

Other than one bad start against the Phillies, deGrom has been his usual dominant self. Tom Koehler has a 6.68 August ERA and has a 14.73 ERA against the Mets this year! The Marlins can't hit right handed pitching, and the Mets are now hitting for power. Huge advantage in pitching and bats for the Mets today.

In 5 starts as a Pirate, Happ has had a 1.98 ERA, giving up 1 homer in 27.1 innings and the Pirates have won each of the last 4 games he has started. Carlos Martinez has a 4.35 ERA against the Pirates this year, giving up more runs to the Pirates than he has to any other team. The Pirates hit right much better at .396/.717 than the Cardinals do left at .364/.679. Pirates are a great value pick today to upset the Cardinals.

I was very close to locking in this same bet in yesterday's Rockies vs. Giants game, but the line swung way too much before I could grab it. The Giants don't hit southpaws very well, and get to face a southpaw in De La Rosa, who pitched very well in August with a 2.87 ERA. Chris Heston had a horrible August, with a 5.79 ERA and has a 6.50 ERA against the Rockies this year, including a 9.82 ERA at Coors Field. The Rockies bats against right handed pitching has been dominant, and CarGo now has 4 homers in his last 2 games. I don't trust the Rockies bullpen, but I like the Rockies starting pitching matchup and their power bats to win.

Martin Perez's ERA is showing 5.15, but in 8 starts this year, he has had 1 terrible start and 7 good outings. That one terrible start ballooned his ERA, but if you ignore that game, his ERA this year is 3.63. Garrett Richards had a 5.17 ERA in August. The Rangers bats hit right at .414./.740 which is much better than the Angels hit left at .363/.665. Rangers are playing with purpose to hold onto their playoff birth, and I love them today getting anything more than 100 cents to the dollar.

Mike Bolsinger is back and has performed very well against the Padres, with a 1.42 ERA this year over 12.2 innings. Several of the Dodgers have hit Shields with power and consistency over the last 5 years. The Dodgers have now won 8 of their last 10 games, and after losing to the Padres last night, I like them to win today in a game that they need way more than the Padres.

BOL