Are The Nationals Undervalued?

Question

I continue to get burned betting on the Nationals, and for that, I have nobody to blame but myself. But for such a crappy team (11-25), the books sure have a habit of offering some very interesting lines for them.

Take this weekend for example. Yes, I bet on the Nats three times vs. the Phillies, money down the drain. I suck. But look at these lines in relation to where the money was coming down on these two teams.

Saturday, Game 1:

PHI 81% -128
WAS 19% +120

Saturday, Game 2:

PHI 77% -116
WAS 23% +108

Sunday:

PHI 63% +101
WAS 37% -109

How to explain these numbers? Have the Nationals just been unlucky, and are actually better than their record indicates?

And if so, are the Washington Nationals being undervalued by sports bettors, or are the books just wrong?

I don't want to continue betting on them, but at these prices, I almost feel like I have to.

Mike_NYC · Answer

I continue to get burned betting on the Nationals, and for that, I have nobody to blame but myself. But for such a crappy team (11-25), the books sure have a habit of offering some very interesting lines for them.

Take this weekend for example. Yes, I bet on the Nats three times vs. the Phillies, money down the drain. I suck. But look at these lines in relation to where the money was coming down on these two teams.

Saturday, Game 1:

PHI 81% -128
WAS 19% +120

Saturday, Game 2:

PHI 77% -116
WAS 23% +108

Sunday:

PHI 63% +101
WAS 37% -109

How to explain these numbers? Have the Nationals just been unlucky, and are actually better than their record indicates?

And if so, are the Washington Nationals being undervalued by sports bettors, or are the books just wrong?

I don't want to continue betting on them, but at these prices, I almost feel like I have to.

slumdog · Answer

They just suck, but it&#x27;s too early in the season to hang huge prices. And what&#x27;s so great about those odds? Do you really think they have a 50% chance of winning each time they take the field?

VIPLegend · Answer

You can&#x27;t be undervalued if you never win. Good query though. I&#x27;ve backed the Nats once or twice thus far. Once with Zimmerman on the mound after he starting off nicely this season. Got burned, of course. I&#x27;d steer clear of this team until they can actually show they can win a game.

Mike_NYC · Answer

If you&#x27;re betting on them, the odds suck - that&#x27;s my point. If the Phillies are pulling in roughly 75% of the action you would think the Nats line would be a lot higher than &#x2B;108.But it&#x27;s not.

Superfigg · Answer

the nats have burned me this year,,  but their hitting is solid, its zimmerman and cabrera that have screwed up everything ,,

Vlud · Answer

undervalued ? how about OVERvalued .. i mean they have no bullpen whatsoever and their starting pitching is a disaster .. sure , they can hit the ball , but without pitching any bet against the nationals is money in the bank right now ..

today they are -122 favs , with a rookie pitcher starting , who won't go past the 4th inning and after that the bullpen comes in..

are you kidding me , like i said yesterday , whoever comes up with the nats lines is

hammering the pirates today , just because there is a TON on value on them .. any nats game cannot be a "trap" because they simply suck

if looking at todays game , the nats will lose at least 6 of 10 , so give me the pirates

Vlud · Answer

"Washington has scored at least five runs in each of its past eight games&#xD;&#xA;despite going 1-7 in that stretch"

TML4EVER · Answer

Washington is 1 and 7 in their last 8 games... &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;They have scored 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8 runs per game.  It&#x27;s not difficult to see where their problems are..... pitching.  They are last in every catagory.....  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Lay off the Nats and just play the over as it has hit 7 of their last 8 and the 8th game was a push..... they even have a undecided game at 10-10.....&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;My take, don&#x27;t try to fit a square into a circle and just play to teams strenghts and the Nats&#x27; strength right now is taking the OVER!

MetSox · Answer

The nats have 11 wins and 12 blown saves. until they fix the pen they arent overvalued. HOWEVER... banging them on 1st 5 inning bets is decent value I think. Since Zimmerman came up the starters have been slightly better and you still get their bats which are up with the best in the NL somehow.

I think Over bets are the way to play them, but def play them 1st 5 rather then full game whenever possible if u do want to bet them.

yankees2k6 · Answer

Your better off betting them the 1st 5 innings than the game.... there bullpen has blown a lot of games for them.  Either 1st 5 innings or play against them. GL

VegasMaxx · Answer

Unless the books ajust I will be making alot of money playing the nats over in certain spots.   I cant wait for the 6 games they play Philly later this year.

hugh613 · Answer

I do think you have to keep in mind the fact that they were at home. Plus, Philadelphia doesn't exactly have any major studs in their rotation - minus a healthy and effective Cole Hamels. Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Chan Ho Park aren't exactly sure shots, and they proved it this weekend. So, to answer your question, "NO".

cisco · Answer

and when they lose they don&#x27;t even cover the RL &#x2B;1.5&#xD;&#xA;25 losses and only 5 covers

tep · Answer

You also have to take in account that the pitchers (starters) the Phils are using right now suck. Add that to a good hitting Wash team and those lines are about right. Also before the series started most of the Phils lineup was in a slump but have come out since then on fire.

My point is I think those lines were exactly right for the situation. I think the "square" bettor overvalued Phil and got lucking they started hitting.

GL

Are The Nationals Undervalued?

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