Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates -112 at 5DIMES

The visiting Atlanta Braves will send Ervin Santana (12-6, 3.66 ERA) to the mound; Santana earned a win over the Dodgers in his last outing, going six innings while allowing two runs and striking out nine. The right-hander has yet to face the Pirates in his career. Pittsburgh counters with Vance Worley (5-2, 2.51 ERA); Worley fell to 5-2 after allowing five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings in an 8-4 setback to the Tigers on Wednesday. Worley has been a nice surprise since joining the Pirates this season though and is 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA at PNC Park. Note that Pittsburgh is 5-2 versus the Braves at home the last three seasons and should have the advantage here. The Pirates have struggled on the road of late, but a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, they’re 39-24 at PNC Park thus far. Atlanta is coming off a ten game home stand that ended with a Sunday night nationally televised contest, so in my opinion this sets up as a natural letdown spot. Consider taking the home team at a great price here.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels
-129  at  PINNACLE
 Though they lost Sunday, missing out on a chance for a sweep of the Rangers, the Angels remain percentage points ahead of Oakland in the American League West. They'll have an excellent shot at increasing that lead Monday as for the fourth straight series they will take on an opponent that is in last place of its division.

Last weekend, the Angels lost two of three to Boston.  They went on to win four in a row after that before losing yesterday.  CJ Wilson didn't pitch in that last series vs. the Red Sox however, but will tonight.  Wilson allowed just two runs off seven hits in his last start following a rough stretch.

In nine career outings vs. Boston, Wilson is a solid 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA.

This has just been an awful year for the Red Sox, who lost 8-1 to Houston on Sunday.  Tonight's starter Brandon Workman offers little hope that the team will turn things around.  He has zero wins at Fenway Park this season and comes in with a 0-6 record his last six starts.  He has a 1.50 WHIP in his last three. 

Workman was the one responsible for Boston's only loss to the Angels in the previous series. He came on in relief and allowed a walk-off HR to Albert Pujols.

Last series aside, the Angels have had the Red Sox number. They are 6-2 their last eight games in Boston and scored five runs or more seven times. Overall, they are 12-5 last 17 vs. Boston.

Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
+145  at  BOVADA
The Mariners took two of three in Detroit over the weekend and they are now 6-1 over their last seven games. They have narrowed the gap to 5.5 games in the American League West and they currently have a half-game lead over the Tigers for the second Wild Card spot. Seattle has been solid on the road this season with a 33-24 record but I think they are overpriced in this spot. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last seven games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies had a short and poor roadtrip, going 1-4 as their tough season rolls on. They have been a huge disappointment all around and especially at home where they are just 26-36 but are in a decent spot here as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Jerome Williams made his first start with the Phillies last week and it was pretty good as he allowed two runs on five hits in 5.1 innings but the bullpen blew his chance for the victory. Going back to last season with the Angels, he has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. The Mariners counter with Roenis Elias who has struggled since late June as fatigue seems to be catching up. He has gone seven straight starts without a quality outing, posting a 5.25 ERA in the process. He was sent down to Tacoma to make a start because of the schedule of Seattle not needing a fifth starter and while he was solid, facing Major League hitting again could be an issue. The Mariners are 2-5 in Elias' last seven starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels
-118  at  BMAKER

The Angels enter the home stretch of the season as one of the best teams in the league while playing in the toughest division in baseball. They had won 4 in a row before Huston Street blew the save in the 9th inning Sunday. The starting pitching staff has posted a solid 2.05 ERA in the last 7 games. C.J. Wilson has had his share of struggles this year, but did look good in his last outing while allowing 2 runs in almost 7 innings against the Phillies. As long as he doesn’t get “blown up” the Angels will have enough fire power to come out of this one on top.

Josh Hamilton received a day off yesterday so he should be fresh and ready to go. Both he and teammate Mike Trout have great career numbers at Fenway Park. They’ll be facing Brandon Workman, who is 1-6 with a 4.45 ERA on the season. Workman had shown glimpses of strong pitching earlier in the season. Things have dropped off significantly and now he’s taken the loss in 6 straight outings. He missed his last start due to fatigue and also leaves most of his pitches up in the zone. That’s a bad combination against an Angel’s lineup that will take advantage of mistakes and tee off on balls up in the zone.

I’ll call the starting pitching a wash due to how bad Wilson had been prior to his last outing. Big offensive advantage to the Halos though. If we throw in the fact that Boston has nothing to play for while the Angels are in a race for the division, a significant edge goes to the visiting squad.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates
-108  at  5DIMES

This a great spot to jump on the Pirates as a small home favorite. No question Pittsburgh is going to be highly motivated after dropping all 5-games on their short road trip. No place better for the Pirates to bounce back than PNC Park, where they are a dominant 39-24 on the season. Atlanta on the other hand could find it difficult to maintain their edge after a huge 3-game sweep of the A's to finish up a lengthy 10-game homestand. The Braves have had their struggles on the road, where they have lost 8 straight and 12 of their last 14.

Adding even more value to the Pirates is that they will be sending out Vance Worley, who has been a huge surprise this season. Worley has a 2.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 10 starts and an even better 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP over 4 starts at PNC Park.

Key Trends - Atlanta is 2-7 in their last 9 games as an underdog, 2-6 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series, 1-6 in their last 7 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in Santana's last 6 road starts. Pittsburgh is 21-7 in their last 28 home games against a right-handed starter.

System - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (PITTSBURGH) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 231-126 (65%) against the money line since 1997

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals
-161  at  PINNACLE
The Kansas City Royals (68-55) have gone an MLB-best 20-5 since July 22 to take a 1 1/2 game lead on the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central division.  They are hungry to get to the playoffs this year and I look for them to continue this surge tonight against the Minnesota Twins (55-67).

Jason Vargas has been steady all year, going 9-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 22 starts, including 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 10 road starts.  The left-hander is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.86 ERA in three starts against the Twins this season.

Trevor May will be making just his second start of the season for the Twins today.  His first start was atrocious as he allowed four earned runs and 10 base runners (7 walks) over two innings of a 4-9 loss at Oakland on August 9.

Minnesota is 7-28 (-19.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.  The Twins are 3-19 (-14.0 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.  The Twins are 28-62 in their last 90 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-6 in its last seven home games vs. a left-handed starts.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels
-123  at  PINNACLE
The Key: Wilson has had his share of struggles on the road this season, but he has an excellent track record versus Boston.  He's 5-2 (7-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.73 in nine career starts versus the Red Sox.  Boston has dropped seven of 10 at home and 14 of 20 versus southpaw starters.  It's also dropped 12 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including six of the last eight at home.  The Red Sox are 0-6 in Workman's last six starts.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals
-1½+110  at  PINNACLE
I'm recommending a Run Line play on the Nationals on Monday night.  When Vidal Nuno came to Arizona from the Yankees on in early July, he looked like yet another AL pitcher who would benefit from a jump to the NL.  Nuno began his Diamondback career with seven shutout innings in a 2-1 loss to Miami.  But in six starts since then, the left-hander has not been nearly as strong and he has allowed a high number of fly balls over ground balls.  Tonight, Nuno will face a red-hot Washington team that has averaged 5.5 rpg in home night games against southpaws in 2014.  The Nats have won six straight games and they're 9-2 in their last 11...and they have scored 27 runs in their last five games at home.  Arizona, meanwhile, is struggling at the plate, scoring a total of just 17 runs over their last seven games and Jordan Zimmerman is not likely to provide the sweet elixir for the D-back bats.  The Nationals' righty has been at his best at home and owned very stingy numbers in four starts against the D-backs the last three seasons, before one bad start against them in 2014.  That game was a long time ago...early May, and the Nationals still left Chase Field with a 6-5 win.  The Nats have won eight of Zimmerman's home starts this season, going 7-1 on the run line.  Jayson Werth returned to action last night, coming off the bench and playing an important role in the win. Tonight, he may start and he has been a one-man Arizona wrecking crew, dominating Diamondback pitching the last 17 times he faced them.  His team is on a 45-16 run with Zimmerman listed as chalk, while the D-backs are 0-7 with Nuno on the mound.

Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Redskins Washington Redskins
-2½-115  at  BETONLINE
The Johnny Football Saga will be in full effect on Monday with a national TV audience and an expected start by the chosen one. Washington also has their own drama as people will find out this year in Robert Griffin III can actually play quarterback in the league. Detroit did not do much but the basics and still beat the Browns in Week 1 and expect Washington to attack more especially on offense. Cleveland has not been a good team in the regular season so there is nothing to suggest they can win road games in the exhibition season.

NFL  |  Sep 07, 2014
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals
+2½-110  at  BETONLINE

The Bengals return home after a wild and whacky 41-39 shootout loss in Kansas City, where special teams blunders, pick sixes, and overall poor play was the theme of the day for the Bengals.  Getting to return home after an opening game 1 defeat against a team who won, is always an angle to look at.  Another Angle is the fact the Jets, who have settled in at QB with Geno Smith, managed just 235 yards of offense against the Colts in a 13-10 ho-hum win, and this is their first road trip in this early preseason. 

As I look to camp reports at cincyjungle.com, an excellent site for team info with comprehensive coverage of daily team reports, the offensive line is much healthier and will see some time in this game as well as they were very thin in their game at KC in that area due to injury issues.  The depth of the running game that Cincy has dwarfs that of the Jets, and I also expect the special teams and second team offense to be vastly sharper than they were in Kansas City last week.  The Jets are not a deep team at skill positions, and not all that talented on offense either in my opinion, and I doubt QB Smith sniffs the field after the first quarter here and Mike Vick will do his thing, which is past its prime I might add.  At days end the Bengals potential for scoring is higher and the motivation to win the home opener in the preseason after a loss will also be in play after a mistake filled debacle at Kansas City last week.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox Total
9½ ov+102  at  PINNACLE

With both teams sending out a couple of struggling starters, I'm expecting a high scoring affair tonight between the Red Sox and Angels. Boston will start Brandon Workman, who is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.296 over 10 starts this season and a miserable 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.464 WHIP over 5 home starts. Los Angeles will counter with C.J. Wilson, who is 2-6 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.556 WHIP over 10 road starts and 1-2 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.975 WHIP over his last 3.

Wilson has seen the total go OVER the mark in 12 of his last 14 starts against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. The OVER is also 12-4 in the Angels last 16 road games after playing 3 straight against a division rival and 21-6 in Wilson's last 27 road starts.

Boston has gone OVER the total in 5 of their last 6 home games. On top of that the OVER is 10-4 in their last 14 against the AL West and 7-3 in their last 10 home games with a total set between 9 and 10.5 runs.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Atlanta Braves
+104  at  BMAKER
Ervin Santana has done his part to keep the Atlanta Braves’ shaky playoff hopes alive, and the 10-year veteran right-hander takes the mound Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, looking to kick off Atlanta’s seven-game road trip with his sixth consecutive victory! Atlanta capped an impressive sweep of Oakland with a 4-3 victory Sunday night, while Pittsburgh lost 6-5 in 11 innings to Washington for its fifth consecutive defeat! Pitt is tired and Atlanta keeps on rolling!
 Atlanta’s Justin Upton also has three homers during his streak, driving in nine runs while hitting .360. 
Santana beat the Dodgers on Wednesday, giving up two runs with nine strikeouts in six innings to improve to 7-1 in his past nine starts. He has struck out 41 in 40 innings – including back-to-back double-digit strikeout efforts – in his past six outings, posting a 2.70 ERA by allowing only 12 earned runs.

ZELO GOOD LUCK BUDDY

GL Zelo