Posted:
#1
I don't care what the Astros record is, and I don't care how much better the Rays have been this season. Fact of the matter is this line is begoing for Tampa money and I'm not buying it. Too many times bettors get caught up in avoiding bad teams altogether (and I can understand why), but a fishy line is a fishy line - whether you can stomach it or not.
Let's start with the pitchers, which on paper looks to be a mismatch. On one side you have the Rays' Jeff Niemann (2-4, 4.82 ERA), who just came off the DL to deliver an impressive win, tossing 6 scoreless at Milwaukee. On the other you have J.A. Happ (3-9, 5.33 ERA), who's struggling mightily over his L3 starts, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA.
Seems like a pretty cut and dry spot to fade Happ and ride Niemann right? WRONG! That's not what the line is telling us. Don't you think oddsmakers would've made you pay more of premium to play the suddenly "resurgent" Niemann in this spot if they really thought he was going to win? What I'm seeing here is a great spot for Happ to bounce back against a Rays team that doesn't particulaarly hit lefties well (.238 on the season - 25th in Majors).
Moreover, expecting Niemann to repeat what he did to the Brewers tonight is a stretch at best. Yes, he was great in that game, and I know because I had the Rays and Niemann as my Free Play winner that night. That being said, I'm expecting a drop-off here, even if his numbers are much better on the road... Remember guys, if the oddsmakers were really expecting another gem, you would be paying a hell of a lot more to play the Rays in this contest.
I happen to like the Astros offense in this spot, batting .257 vs. righties at Minute Maid Park. They got some solid production last night agacnst Wade Davis (albeit in a loss), as Lee, Pence Keppinger and Bourn contributed. But let's not get too far away from my central theme - this line is fishy as hell, and regardless of the Astros piss-poor record, it's signaling a strong buy on Houston this afternoon. We all know Happ is better than he's been of late (undervalued) and Niemann comes in getting a little too much credit for one good start (overvalued). Look for the Astros to avoid the sweep this afternoon at home.
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