Picks of the Day Record YTD: 43-25-7 (63%) *** +17.43% Return on Risk *** ML: 10-6 (63%) F5: 13-7-3 (65%) RL: 3-4 (43%) O/U: 17-8-4 (68%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/7/2014 Record: 0-0-0 (0%) Risked / To Win: 0.00 Units / 0.00 Units (avg. line of -000) Profit: +0.00 Units / +$0.00 Return on Risk: +0.00% *** No plays yesterday ***
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$23 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $63,442 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Picks of the Day Record YTD: 43-25-7 (63%) *** +17.43% Return on Risk *** ML: 10-6 (63%) F5: 13-7-3 (65%) RL: 3-4 (43%) O/U: 17-8-4 (68%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/7/2014 Record: 0-0-0 (0%) Risked / To Win: 0.00 Units / 0.00 Units (avg. line of -000) Profit: +0.00 Units / +$0.00 Return on Risk: +0.00% *** No plays yesterday ***
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$23 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $63,442 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Took yesterday off bc I am traveling for work. Heading home now so only one write-up for now. More to commentary to follow.
Sides
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Washington National F5 (-112) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Backing
Strasburg when he's going up against the Braves is not for the
faint-hearted. He has a 6.10 ERA in two starts vs. Atlanta this season,
and hasn't picked up a win against them since 2012.
So why bet
on Strasburg and the Nationals? They are coming off back-to-back wins
and Strasburg has looked great over his last 2 starts, giving up only 7
hits and 1 run over 14 innings of work. Outside of Freeman and Heyward,
Strasburg has been very effective against Braves hitters. The Braves are
in a tail-spin, having lost 8 straight games while averaging only 1.8
games per game. Plus, the Nationals beat Santana in late June, scoring 3
runs off him (F5).
I feel the pitching advantage goes to the
Nationals in this matchup. It's hard to bet on a team that has dropped 8
straight and having trouble scoring runs when they are facing a pitcher
of Strasburg's calibre. The Nationals also have a slight edge in the
bullpen department. I feel this should be a low scoring affair, which is
why I am taking the under as well.
San Francisco Giants ML (-110) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Detroit Tigers F5 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Detroit Tigers -1 RL (+100) --- 0.50 Units / 0.50% of Bankroll
Los Angeles Angels -1 RL (-132) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Totals
Miami/Cincinnati Under 7.5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Washington/Atlanta Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Detroit/Toronto Under 8.5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Chicago/Seattle Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
0
Friday's Card *** 8/8/2014 ***
Took yesterday off bc I am traveling for work. Heading home now so only one write-up for now. More to commentary to follow.
Sides
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Washington National F5 (-112) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Backing
Strasburg when he's going up against the Braves is not for the
faint-hearted. He has a 6.10 ERA in two starts vs. Atlanta this season,
and hasn't picked up a win against them since 2012.
So why bet
on Strasburg and the Nationals? They are coming off back-to-back wins
and Strasburg has looked great over his last 2 starts, giving up only 7
hits and 1 run over 14 innings of work. Outside of Freeman and Heyward,
Strasburg has been very effective against Braves hitters. The Braves are
in a tail-spin, having lost 8 straight games while averaging only 1.8
games per game. Plus, the Nationals beat Santana in late June, scoring 3
runs off him (F5).
I feel the pitching advantage goes to the
Nationals in this matchup. It's hard to bet on a team that has dropped 8
straight and having trouble scoring runs when they are facing a pitcher
of Strasburg's calibre. The Nationals also have a slight edge in the
bullpen department. I feel this should be a low scoring affair, which is
why I am taking the under as well.
San Francisco Giants ML (-110) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Detroit Tigers F5 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Detroit Tigers -1 RL (+100) --- 0.50 Units / 0.50% of Bankroll
Los Angeles Angels -1 RL (-132) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Totals
Miami/Cincinnati Under 7.5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Washington/Atlanta Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Detroit/Toronto Under 8.5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Chicago/Seattle Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
With you on the Halos. Oppo on the Nats tho, Strasburg is just what the Braves need to snap that streak, imo. Also, on the O's tonight.
Like the rest of your plays, GL
anyone who has watched Strasburg pitch against the Braves recently would lean on the Braves. I would take the Braves if the Nationals were more heavily favored (like previous times). I see value in Strasburg at that price, especially given the Braves' woes as of late.
best of luck
0
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyTeam99:
Always a good read.
With you on the Halos. Oppo on the Nats tho, Strasburg is just what the Braves need to snap that streak, imo. Also, on the O's tonight.
Like the rest of your plays, GL
anyone who has watched Strasburg pitch against the Braves recently would lean on the Braves. I would take the Braves if the Nationals were more heavily favored (like previous times). I see value in Strasburg at that price, especially given the Braves' woes as of late.
I am very high on Anderson and feel he is still undervalued in the betting market. Zona isn't the same team, offensively, without Goldy/Prado and they are missing other bats as well. I generally tend to stay away from unders at that ballpark unless I am very convinced the line is off. I think 8 is a fair line. If you can get 8.5 @ -125 or better I would probably feel compelled to take a flyer on it.
0
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:
How do u like UN Ariz 8 Tonight?
I am very high on Anderson and feel he is still undervalued in the betting market. Zona isn't the same team, offensively, without Goldy/Prado and they are missing other bats as well. I generally tend to stay away from unders at that ballpark unless I am very convinced the line is off. I think 8 is a fair line. If you can get 8.5 @ -125 or better I would probably feel compelled to take a flyer on it.
between the unearned run, on what should have been an inning ending double play, giving the Cubs the lead in the 4th and then getting thrown out to end the inning with RISP in the 8th… the Rays have sure done all they could to even put the Cubs in a position to tie it up (which they did) in the 9th.
Teams that kick me below the belt, no matter the play, with regularity: Cubs, Braves, and Blue Jays.
Let's hope the Rays pull it off in extras. This would be a pretty bad loss. Boooo
0
between the unearned run, on what should have been an inning ending double play, giving the Cubs the lead in the 4th and then getting thrown out to end the inning with RISP in the 8th… the Rays have sure done all they could to even put the Cubs in a position to tie it up (which they did) in the 9th.
Teams that kick me below the belt, no matter the play, with regularity: Cubs, Braves, and Blue Jays.
Let's hope the Rays pull it off in extras. This would be a pretty bad loss. Boooo
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