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Bob's MLB Friday *** 6.17.16 ***

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MLB 2016
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Summary
Record: 138-98-14 (59%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $109 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,550.35 (+37.81 Units), +12.99% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 79-55 (59%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 11-9-2 (55%)
O/U: 46-30-10 (61%)

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Performance History
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Overall
2016: 138-98-14 (59%), +12.99% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2016: 42-25-6 (63%), +21.37% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Thursday
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No plays.

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Friday
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Been a crazy last few days at the office. I survived my MLB withdrawals in good spirits though! Back on the grind. Good luck fellas! Will peep the run totals tomorrow.

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 RL +115, Sanchez/Wright

Detroit Tigers FG -111, Fulmer/Ventura

Los Angeles Angels FG -133, Shoemaker/Graveman
 
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Bol
 
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You just love betting against my royals lol. Any thoughts on Texas tomorrow? Wacha has been struggling seems like a good spot for a hot Texas club. Bol man
Don’t let the last play affect the next play
 
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Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:

You just love betting against my royals lol. Any thoughts on Texas tomorrow? Wacha has been struggling seems like a good spot for a hot Texas club. Bol man


I love this matchup... my ONLY concern is that the Rangers have had a heck of a travel schedule here lately. I am going to chew on this one a bit more.

For what it's worth, I have the Rangers at -130 before making any additional adjustments.
 
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Welcome back
 
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Looking at the Tigers 
 
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Thanks for sharing. Lets get them tomorrow
 
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Everybody and their granny will be on the Jays and Sanchez against Wright and the Os. Same scenario with your other two selections. Nobody in their right mind would take the A's tonight; however, Oakland may be the sleeper pick of the day. This is the kind of game that they win somehow, plus they seem to get up for the Angels. Normally I'm all over your picks but am skeptical of these tonight...too obvious. I hope you win all three though, except of course if I muster the courage to bet Oakland!



RT2
 
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No conflict here. Playing Tigers RL/F5 for the bonus $ though.
Texas -145 computed, but I am hesitant too.

BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

Everybody and their granny will be on the Jays and Sanchez against Wright and the Os. Same scenario with your other two selections. Nobody in their right mind would take the A's tonight; however, Oakland may be the sleeper pick of the day. This is the kind of game that they win somehow, plus they seem to get up for the Angels. Normally I'm all over your picks but am skeptical of these tonight...too obvious. I hope you win all three though, except of course if I muster the courage to bet Oakland!



RT2


The only time I care about what other people will do is if it affects my view as to whether I can get a better line - the next day after more wagers are placed. My focus is always on my own handicapping. As far as sleeper picks go, I still have the A's having a 39% chance of winning the game, which means the fair line should be +155 (according to my numbers). I always play for long-term repeatable outcomes that skew in my favor (i.e., mispriced lines). It's never about who I think can or should win. Playing that game will result in undesirable outcomes.


 
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BOL BOB.  I'm on the Tigers also.
 
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First of all, respect the work and time you put in.  Been betting bb for a long time and it can be a real grind.

I like Fulmer a lot, but no concern first game with JD going out.  I know you are an ROI guy, but not sure the line fully takes that into account.  He was doing really well and may take the Tigers awhile to adjust to his absence.

Not to mention, KC one of the best and Tigers one of the worst bullpens.  Agree with Key, I think 1st 5 is a better play there.
 
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Baseball 101: The relationship of win probability to payback is not 
"A" factor
it is
"THE" factor

Keep pluggin away BoB, some of it gets through.


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Quote Originally Posted by here2contribute:

First of all, respect the work and time you put in.  Been betting bb for a long time and it can be a real grind.

I like Fulmer a lot, but no concern first game with JD going out.  I know you are an ROI guy, but not sure the line fully takes that into account.  He was doing really well and may take the Tigers awhile to adjust to his absence.

Not to mention, KC one of the best and Tigers one of the worst bullpens.  Agree with Key, I think 1st 5 is a better play there.


I like F5 s well. But, I placed the wager before F5 lines were posted and the FG price was attractive enough to play per my criteria.

I work in a field where I often times cannot even look at lines during the day/evening before games start, which is why I post - more often than not - the night before during the week.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:



I like F5 s well. But, I placed the wager before F5 lines were posted and the FG price was attractive enough to play per my criteria.

I work in a field where I often times cannot even look at lines during the day/evening before games start, which is why I post - more often than not - the night before during the week.


I wanted to grab the Tigers yesterday at -110, but decided to wait for the F5 lines to be out today. Only had time to access my account during lunch today, and the Tigers F5 is now around -150 (versus -130 for the full game). I ended up not playing the game! I should have grabbed the Tigers yesterday night for the full game or be available this morning when the F5 lines were out.

BOL today
 
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There are advantages to being (technically) retired 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Good luck BOB!
 
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Hamels  +115 vs horrible Wacha 
 
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Your plays looking solid bob


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Ventura is a punk! Let's go Tigers!

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